Paul Douglas On Weather
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Somewhat Soggy Friday Ahead

A storm system will move through the region on Friday with scattered showers and perhaps a clap of thunder or two. Much of the day will be soggy especially across the Central part of the state into Wisconsin.

Precipitation Outlook

Here's the precipitation outlook from AM Friday to AM Saturday, which shows up to a few tenths of an inch possible.

Top 20 Warmest Days of 2022 at MSP

Here are the top 20 warmest days of 2022 at MSP. Note that there have been 18 days at 90F or warmer. The warmest day was June 20th at 101F, but also note that we hit 92F on September 20th, which is tied for the 9th warmest day of the year.

Fall Color Update

It's that time of the year again for fall colors and the MN DNR has their fall color finder up and running. Much of the state is still color free, but there are a few colors popping up here and there.

Average Fall Color

The MN DNR has put together a nice graphic that shows typical dates for peak fall color. The northern par of the state starts to peak during the 2nd half of September into early October. Meanwhile, folks in the central part of the state and into the metro typically don't see peak color until the end of September into the middle part of October. It won't be long now - enjoy!

Average First Frost For MSP

Here's the 30 year average for the first frost in Minneapolis, which lands on October 13th. Last year (2021) the first frost was on October 23rd. If you look at the full MSP record, which dates back to 1873, the latest frost was November 18th back in 2016, while the earliest frost was September 3rd back in 1974.

First Measurable Snow at MSP

Here's the average first measurable snowfall (0.01") at MSP over the last 30 years, which lands on November 6th. Last year, MSP had its first measurable snow on November 13th. The last was on December 3rd back in 1928, while the earliest was September 24th in 1985.

Minnesota Drought Update

Here's the latest drought update across Minnesota. As of September 20th, we still have a sliver of moderate and severe drought conditions stretching from the Twin Cities Metro to the Minnesota River Valley.

Weather Outlook on Friday

The weather outlook on Friday shows very chilly temps in place on Friday with temps only warming into the 50s across much of the state. These readings will be nearly -10F to -15F below average for the end of September.

Weather Outlook Friday

The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Friday shows unsettled weather in place throughout much of the day. Showers and a few thunderstorms can't be ruled out with temperatures only warming into the mid/upper 50s, which will be well below average for this time of the year.

Meteograms for Minneapolis

The hourly forecast for Minneapolis on Friday shows temps starting in the upper 40s to near 50F in the morning with highs only warming into the mid 50s by the afternoon. Skies will be cloudy with on/off t-shower chances. Southerly wind gusts up to near 30mph will be possible.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis through early next week shows below average temps continuing over the next several days. The coolest day will be Friday with highs only warming into the 50s, which will be nearly -10F to -15F below average.

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows temperature running below average through the weekend and into early next week. The soggiest day will be Friday with lingering showers possible PM Saturday and Saturday night.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

According to the ECMWF & NBM models, the extended temperature outlook shows fall-like temperature readings in place through the end of the month and early October.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows above average temps continuing across much of the nation and especially across the Plains.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows dry weather in place from the Great Lakes to the Southern US

"Here's What it Looks Like Inside Hurricane Fiona"

"Hurricane Fiona is the first Category 4 storm of the 2022 season. SD 1078 is battling 50-foot waves and winds measured over 100 mph to collect critical scientific data and, in the process, is providing a completely new view of one of Earth's most destructive forces. Inside the storm, SD 1078 is sailing at sustained speeds over 9 mph. At one moment, it reached a peak speed of 39.7 mph before surfing down a massive 55-foot wave. SD 1078 is one of seven "hurricane" saildrones that have been operating in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico during this hurricane season, gathering data around the clock to help understand the physical processes of hurricanes. This knowledge is critical to improving storm forecasting and is expected to reduce the loss of human life by enabling better preparedness in coastal communities."

See more from Sail Drone HERE:

Tracking Fiona

Here's a view of Hurricane Fiona from PM Thursday, which was a major category 4 storm with 130mph winds. Fiona caused catastrophic damage and flooding in Puerto Rico, The Dominican Republic and the Turks and Caicos. Fiona will cause a life-threatening storm surge in Bermuda through Friday with gusty winds and areas of heavy rain.

Tropical Alerts

Tropical Alerts continue from Bermuda to eastern Canada. Fiona could be an historic event from Nova Scotia to Quebec, Newfoundland and Labrador.

Tracking Fiona

Here's the track of Hurricane Fiona as it drifts north through the weekend as a very strong and potentially historic storm for Canada with strong winds and life-threatening surf and rip currents along the North American East Coast.

What Keeps Me Up At Night? Plenty
By Paul Douglas

What keeps me up at night? Predicting flurries, only to wake up to a foot of flurries. Missing a tornado or a deadly flood. Meteorologists live in a state of perpetual paranoia.

Setting expectations for consumers is always a challenge, but businesses have to worry about staffing, safety, facilities and supply chains. Companies don't like unanticipated weather surprises.

My weather company, Praedictix, is already advising clients on the next tropical threat to the US. What may become Hurricane Hermine is expected to track into the Gulf of Mexico next week. The track will change over time, but some of the more reliable models hint at a direct strike on Florida.

In other news I see very little weather drama for Minnesota. A few showers slide into town today and linger part of Saturday. Sunday should be the sunnier, drier day of the weekend.

The normal high at MSP is 70F, and I see mostly 60s for highs next week.

Meanwhile, tell friends and family in Florida to pay attention to what may become "Hermine".

Extended Forecast

FRIDAY: Breezy with showers. Winds: SE 10-20. High: 58.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Passing T-Showers. Winds: SSE 5-10. Low: 52.

SATURDAY: Sunny peeks, few showers. Winds: NW 8-13. High: 68.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny and drier. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 55. High: 69.

MONDAY: Clipper may kick up a shower. Winds: NW 15-30. Wake-up: 52. High: 67.

TUESDAY: Early sweatshirts. Cool sunshine. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 46. High: 60.

WEDNESDAY: Blue sky, comfortably cool. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 45. High: 64.

THURSDAY: More clouds, stray shower? Winds: SE 10-20. Wake-up: 52. High: 66.

This Day in Weather History

September 23rd

1995: 0.2 inches of snow falls in the St. Cloud area.

1985: Early snow falls over portions of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Just under a half inch (0.4) is recorded at MSP Airport, mostly during the afternoon.

1937: From summer to winter. The temperature was 101 at Wheaton. Then a cold front came through causing the mercury to tumble below freezing.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

September 23rd

Average High: 70F (Record: 90F set in 1891, 1937 & 2017)

Average Low: 51F (Record: 30F set in 1983)

Record Rainfall: 1.98" set in 2010

Record Snowfall: Trace set in 1928, 1942, 1995

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

September 23rd

Sunrise: 7:01am

Sunset: 7:08pm

Hours of Daylight: ~12 hours & 7 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 3 minutes & 6 seconds

Daylight LOST since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 3 hour & 31 minutes

Moon Phase for September 23rd at Midnight

1.6 Days Before New Moon

National High Temps Friday

The weather outlook on Friday shows well above average temperatures continuing across the Southern US, where record highs will be possible. Meanwhile, cooler than average temps will be possible in the Midwest and Eastern US.

National Weather Outlook Friday

Friday will be an unsettled day in the Midwest with scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Meanwhl

National Weather Outlook

Here's the weather outlook through Thursday, which shows storms pushing through the Northeast, some of which could be strong to severe. There will also be another round of heavier t-storms across the Intermountain-West.

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, There will be areas of unsettled weather across the nation. Some of the heaviest precipitation will be across the Intermountain-West. There will also be some heavier amounts in the Northeast.

Climate Stories

"How crowdsourced weather observations help cities prepare for extreme heat"

"The sun just pours in," he said of his top-floor, west-facing apartment in Harlem, where he has two fans but no air conditioner. Sanchez usually finds a shaded bench in nearby Morningside Park, sees a film or rides his bike to the beach, returning home after the relentless sun has begun to set. "It's just dangerous to stay inside," he said. In 2016, Sanchez, who is 67 and works in public media, helped scientists quantify just how dangerous it is to stay inside during a heatwave. That summer, he and 29 of his neighbors placed sensors in their apartments to collect temperature and humidity data as part of the Harlem Heat Project, a collaboration between the City University of New York (CUNY) and local advocacy and media organizations."

See more from Fast Company HERE:

"China, Europe, US drought: Is 2022 the driest year recorded?"

"Europe and parts of China have experienced extreme temperatures this summer, dry conditions in Africa have put millions at risk of starvation, and the American West continues to see a persistent lack of rainfall. Scientists say warmer and drier seasons are likely to become the norm, but have these past few months been the driest on record? How dry is the earth? One measure of drought conditions used by scientists is based on the level of moisture in the soil as measured by satellite imagery. We have compared these dry conditions over the past three months to average conditions since the beginning of this century, to build up a picture of how extreme recent weather patterns have been."

See more from BBC HERE:

"Five Years After Hurricane Maria, Puerto Ricans Face the Nightmare All Over Again"

"Luis Alexis Rodriguez-Cruz moved to Vermont in 2017 for a PhD program. He arrived at his new home less than a month before Hurricane Maria's fateful landfall over Puerto Rico. He nervously followed updates, wondering how it would affect Juana Diaz, his hometown. An old friend called him; she'd heard that the river behind his grandmother's home had grown. The heavy rain from Maria had swelled the river's banks. Rodriguez-Cruz struggled to concentrate on his work, desperate for information about his family and his community back home."

See more from Gizmodo HERE:

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