Social Security, signed into law 89 years ago, is the financial foundation of retirement in America (along with Medicare).
Social Security has kept millions and millions of elderly people out of poverty and helped many millions more pay their bills. It is the most successful social insurance program in U.S. history.
Still, whenever I have a conversation about the retirement years, someone will always proclaim "Social Security won't be there when I retire." They're far from alone in that opinion.
The pollster Gallup asked non-retired adults earlier this year, "When you retire, how much do you expect to rely on Social Security? Will it be a major source of income, a minor source of income or not a source at all?" Thirteen percent responded Social Security wouldn't be a source of income at all. At least that's an improvement from the 22% response in 2013.
The reason for their skepticism: Social Security's trust fund can pay benefits in full only until 2033, according to the 2024 Trustees Report. Once that date of funding depletion comes, Social Security will pay only 79% of promised benefits. The year of depletion for the combined Disability Insurance trust fund and the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund is 2035. But, as the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College notes, combining the two systems would require a change in the law. Therefore, the date of depletion that matters for retirees is 2033, nine years from now.
It's a safe bet Social Security will be there when the younger generations reach the age of filing. Surveys routinely show Social Security enjoys broad bi-partisan support among the public, and it's difficult to imagine members of Congress trying to justify a steep cut in benefits to their constituents. A draconian 21% benefit cut would devastate the finances of current beneficiaries.
The good news is the underlying economics of shoring up Social Security's finances aren't difficult or particularly daunting. The program's shortfall amounts to some 1% of gross domestic product through the next 75 years. A number of creative solutions have come up through the years that would both restore the system's financial health and improve benefits.
The stumbling block is politics, but that's no excuse. Reform would bolster public confidence in the system. The population is aging, and the nine-year clock is ticking. The sooner Washington wakes up, the better.
Chris Farrell is senior economics contributor, "Marketplace"; commentator, Minnesota Public Radio.
