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First Winter Storm of the Season in the Upper Midwest
A number of winter weather headlines have been posted across The Dakotas into northern Minnesota as our first winter storms of the season unfolds across the region through the end of the week. Areas of heavy snow, ice and strong winds could create blizzard conditions with significant travel impacts likely through Friday.
Heavy Snow Potential
Here's the National Blend of Models snowfall forecast through the weekend, which shows plowable snowfall amounts from the Dakotas into northern Minnesota. Some of the heaviest amounts could exceed a foot with strong winds and blizzard-like conditions.
Ice Potential
Here is the icing potential across the region through the weekend. Heavy mixed precipitation will be possible during the onset of this event prior to the cold air taking over, which means there could be a coating of ice up to 0.10" possible from the Dakotas into northern Minnesota. This too could cause travel concerns as roads could become icy before the snow starts in earnest.
Gusty Winds & Blizzard Potential
Strong winds will accompany this storm with some 30-40mph winds, which could result in blizzard-like conditions across much of North Dakota and into northwest Minnesota. Travel will become difficult if not impossible in some locations Wednesday through Friday as this storm unfolds.
Unsettled Through Friday
The weather outlook remains quite unsettled across the state over the next few days with scattered showers, some thunderstorms. Areas of wintry precipitation will be found across the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, where significant travel impacts will be found.
Much Needed Precipitation
One thing is for sure, we'll be getting some much needed precipitation across the region, where many locations have huge deficits for the Fall Season and so far this year. It won't be enough to end the drought completely, but it'll help recharge the soils before the winter freeze up.
Weather Outlook on Wednesday
Here's the weather outlook for Wednesday, which shows a wide spread in the temperatures across the state from the mid 30s in the northwestern part of the state to the mid 60s across the southern part of the state. Widely scattered showers and storms will be possible for some, while wintry precipitation will begin to develop across the Dakotas and into northern Minnesota.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
Temps on Wednesday will be warmer than average from start to finish with readings in the mid 30s in the morning and highs in the mid 60s in the afternoon. Scattered showers and storms will be possible with locally heavy rainfall at times. Southerly winds will be breezy with some 30mph gusts possible through the day.
Precipitation Departure From Average This Fall
It has been a very dry Fall so far with precipitation running more than 5" below average (since September 1st). Prior to yesterday's rainfall, the September 1st - November 7th time period was the 7th driest on record.
Precipitation Departure From Average Since Jan. 1st
The Twin Cities is now more than 10" below average for the year, which is the 16th driest start to any year on record (through November 7th). Meanwhile, International Fall, MN is still nearly 9.50" above average, which is still the 2nd wettest start to any year on record there.
Drought Update
It has been a dry year for many across central and southern MN. Extreme drought continues across parts of the Twin Cities to the Minnesota River Valley where rainfall deficits have been the greatest. It would be nice to get a good soaking prior to heading into winter, but it doesn't appear that anything substantial is on the way anytime soon.
Tracking Nicole
Tropical Storm Nicole has developed in the Atlantic Basin and is on track to impact the Bahamas and Florida through the end of the week. Strong winds, storm surge and heavy rainfall will be associated with this storm.
Tracking Nicole
According to NOAA's NHC, Nicole will be a hurricane as it impacts the Bahamas and Florida Wednesday & Thursday before it moves over land in the Southeastern US. The storm will then scoot up the East Coast through the end of the week and weekend with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.
Heavy Rainfall From Nicole
Heavy rainfall from Nicole can be expected across the Bahamas, Florida and along the Atlantic Coast States. There will be some widespread 3" to 6" tallies with isolated higher amounts possible, which could cause flooding.
Active End of Week, Then Cold
Here's the weather outlook through the week ahead, which shows unsettled weather in place with scattered showers and storms on the warmer eastern side of the storm, while heavy winter precipitation will be found on the colder western side. Significant snowfall is expected across the Dakotas, while severe storms are possible on Thursday along the Mississippi River Valley.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows warmer than average temps in place through Thursday before a significant cool down arrives late week and weekend with highs only in the 20s this weekend. Brr!
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows unsettled weather in place over the next several days with several inches of rain possible through the end of the week. Temps take a big hit late week/weekend with highs only warming in the 20s and 30s.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
Here's the extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis. The NBM Model shows mild midweek temps, then well below average readings late week and into the weekend.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows colder than average temps in place across much of the nation and especially across the Midwest into mid month.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows quieter weather in place across the Midwest and Great Lakes region.
A Welcome Surge of Showers and T-storms
By Paul Douglas
You don't need a weatherman to tell you that Frozen Water Season is coming. I pounded in driveway stakes yesterday and a neighbor glared at me. Obvious Winter Denier. In the meantime I'm enjoying tracking colorful blobs on Doppler radar.
A east-west warm frontal boundary stalled overhead will initiate a few healthy swarms of showers and T-storms, in fact a few of those storms could be severe south and east of MSP tomorrow afternoon. Say what?
Rainfall over the next 48 hours may be significant, over 1" in the metro with some 2-3" amounts for central Minnesota. We'll be dealing with drought into 2023, but this certainly helps.
Over 10" of snow may pile up over the Red River Valley, with a full-blown blizzard for North Dakota.
The metro sees a few gently-used flurries by Friday and I could see a coating of fluff next week.
Highs will hover near freezing from this weekend into most of next week, well below average.
It doesn't imply a pioneer winter is imminent. It's payback for a mild bias since June.
Extended Forecast
WEDNESDAY: Showers and T-storms. Winds: S 15-25. High: 64.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Showers and storms. Winds: S 5-10. Low: 57.
THURSDAY: More showers, a few strong T-storms. Winds: SW 15-25. Wake-up: 53. High: 68.
FRIDAY: Cold winds, few flakes. Winds: NW 15-30. Wake-up: 31. High: 34.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy, feels like teens. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 26. High: 33.
SUNDAY: Clipper approaches. PM flurries. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 26. High: 34.
MONDAY: More clouds than sun. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 27. High: 35.
TUESDAY: Period of wet snow possible. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 31. High: 36.
This Day in Weather History
November 9th
2003: Parts of west central and north central Minnesota receive anywhere from 2 to 6 inches of new snow. Canby had the most at 6 inches and Benson measured 5 inches.
1977: A foot of snow falls in Western Minnesota. I-94 is tied up.
1850: The sky darkens at Ft. Snelling due to smoke from prairie fires.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
November 9th
Average High: 45F (Record: 70F set in 1999)
Average Low: 31F (Record: 12F set in 1933, 1945, 2017)
Record Rainfall: 1.28" set in 1970
Record Snowfall: 4.5" set in 1983
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
November 9th
Sunrise: 7:02am
Sunset: 4:51pm
Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 48 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 34 seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 5 hour & 51 minutes
Moon Phase for November 9th at Midnight
1.8 Days After Full "Beaver" Moon
"5:02 a.m. CST - At this point of the year, it's time to set beaver traps before the swamps freeze to ensure a supply of warm winter furs. Another interpretation suggests that the name Beaver Moon comes from the fact that the beavers are now active in their preparation for winter. It's also called the Frosty Moon. The year's second total lunar eclipse occurs with this full moon. The eclipse will be visible in its entirety over western North America; in central and eastern regions, moonset will intervene during the latter part of the umbral stages and the moon will set as the total phase begins along the Atlantic seaboard. As was the case in May, totality will last 85 minutes."
National High Temps Wednesday
The weather outlook on Wednesday shows warmer than average temps in place across much of the Central US, where readings will be nearly 20F above average and record highs for some. Meanwhile, it'll be more unsettled in the Western US with temps running well below average with record cold highs for some.
National Weather Outlook Wednesday
The weather outlook for Wednesday looks quite unsettled from the Southwestern US to the Upper Midwest where widespread precipitation will be found. Showers and storms will be likely in the Midwest with areas of heavy winter precipitation from the Intermountain-West into the High Plains.
National Weather Outlook
The weather outlook through Thursday with widespread precipitation from the Southwest to the Upper Midwest. Areas of heavy snow will transition from the mountains to the Upper Midwest with widespread travel troubles.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavy precipitation will develop across the Upper Midwest with several inches of precipitation across the Great Lakes. There will also be heavy precipitation amounts across the high elevations out West. Nicole will also be responsible for heavy precipitation along the East Coast.
Snowfall Potential
According to the ECMWF (European model), there will be heavy snowfall amounts in the Sierra Nevadas and the high elevations in the Western US. There will also be heavy amounts in the High Plains/Upper Midwest and into Canada.
Climate Stories
"Pilot captures incredible pictures of St Elmo's Fire as it enveloped his plane"
"An Airbus captain has caught on camera an incredible phenomenon known as St Elmo's Fire. Pilot Luis Andress was flying from Miami to Denver during last month's Hurricane Ian which caused $50 billion of damage across Florida. The event happens when the atmosphere becomes charged and an electrical discharge of plasma is created between an abject and the air around it. In this occurrence it was around the aircraft he was flying during the storm."
"Effects Of Climate Change In The U.S. Already Terrible And Widespread, Report Finds"
"The effects of climate change in the United States are already "far-reaching" and getting worse, but there remains hope that a rapid transition to a net zero economy can stave off the worst impacts of a warmer world, according to a sweeping new report. The findings are part of the draft version of the country's fifth National Climate Assessment, which Congress mandates must be compiled every four years. Authors include leading voices from many federal science agencies, including NASA, the National Science Foundation, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Army Corps of Engineers, among others."
See more from Huffington Post HERE:
"How Increasing Wildfires Could Transform the Arctic"
"In August 2014, the Arctic Ocean near the North Pole was suddenly awash with microscopic life—gripped by an algae bloom that covered the Laptev Sea, a large chunk of the East Siberian Sea, and part of the open Arctic Ocean. In a regular year, late summer is a quiet time for the Arctic. Long past is the regular spring phytoplankton bloom that supports so much activity. By August, the algae that bloomed in the spring have sucked most of the nitrogen out of the water, leaving the region practically devoid of microscopic creatures and the larger animals that eat them. So where did this bloom come from?"
See more From Hakai Magazine HERE:
