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First Winter Storm of the Season in the Upper Midwest
Our first major winter storm of the season impacted parts of the Upper Midwest earlier this week with significant snow and ice. The heaviest snow piled up over central North Dakota, where some 1ft. to 2ft. amounts were reported. There were some snowfall reports across northern Minnesota as well, but certainly not as heavy.
Cold & Somewhat Snowy Stretch Ahead
The cold is here to stay for an extended period through at least mid November with several days into next week seeing light snow chances. There is a system midweek next week that could bring a chance of prolonged snow, which could mean snowfall accumulations close to home. Stay tuned...
Snow Next Week?
Here is just one models output for snowfall next week. If everything comes together, there could be some plowable amounts close to home, but it's too early to tell. Stay tuned...
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Saturday
Saturday will be a very chilly day across the region with highs only warming to 30F in the Twin Cities. Note that this will be well below average for mid November.
Weather Outlook on Saturday
Here's the weather outlook for Saturday, which shows temps running well below average for mid November. Readings will only warm into the 20s and 30s across the state, which will be nearly -10F to -20F below average. Highs in North Dakota will only warm into the teens thanks to some fresh snow across the state.
Feels Like Temps on Saturday
Feels like temps early Saturday morning will be quite cold with readings down into the single digits and teens. It'll be even colder with feels like temps in the single digits below 0F across the Dakotas. Hourly feels like temps in the Twin Cities will start in the teens and will only warm into the lower 20s through the afternoon.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
Temps on Saturday will be quite cold for this time of the year. Readings will be in the mid 20s to start and will only warm to around 30F in the afternoon with some sunshine. North to northwest wind gusts will be around 15mph to 20mph.
Precipitation Departure From Average This Fall
It has been a very dry Fall so far with precipitation running more than 4.46" below average (since September 1st). The September 1st - November 10th time period was the 6th driest on record.
Precipitation Departure From Average Since Jan. 1st
The Twin Cities is now more than 10" below average for the year, which is the 21st driest start to any year on record (through November 10th). Meanwhile, International Fall, MN is still nearly 9.61" above average, which is still the 36st wettest start to any year on record there.
Drought Update
It has been a dry year for many across central and southern MN. Extreme drought continues across parts of the Twin Cities to the Minnesota River Valley where rainfall deficits have been the greatest. It would be nice to get a good soaking prior to heading into winter, but it doesn't appear that anything substantial is on the way anytime soon.
Continued Cold Through Mid November
The 850mb temp anomaly through most of next week shows below average temps across much of the Upper Midwest. It appears that the cold air is here to stay for quite some.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows well below average temperatures in place over the next several days. It'll feel more like mid winter with highs only warming into the 20s and lower 30s.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows well below average temperatures in place over the next several days. Interestingly, there could be several days of light snow next week, which could mean light snow accumulations across the region. Stay tuned...
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
Here's the extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis through the last full week of November. The NBM Model shows well below average temperatures continuing with another surge of colder weather late next week/weekend.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows colder than average temps in place across much of the nation and especially across the Midwest into mid month.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows quieter weather in place across the Midwest and Great Lakes region.
Potential For A Few Snowy Inches Next Week
By Paul Douglas
Minnesota meteorologists face 5+ months of paranoia, heartache and second-guessing. Snow season is almost here. HOW MANY INCHES PAUL? BESPECIFIC!
Be honest, most days you may not notice if the weather forecast was accurate. "Hey, it was close enough." As a profession we try extra-hard not to miss tornadoes & floods and we sure want to be in the ballpark when it comes to snowfall predictions.
When does our confidence level go up with approaching storms? When the models agree - and when there is some continuity from one model run to the next.
Drab, gray skies linger into Sunday with no drama expected. But a stalled clipper, coupled with a surge of southern moisture, should result in a long-duration snow event from Monday into Wednesday of next week. Gambling with snowfall totals this far out is reckless, but I envision plowable amounts (2-3" or more). Some spots could see significantly more than that.
There is little doubt that a January chill will linger into Thanksgiving this year. Hello winter.
Extended Forecast
SATURDAY: Cloudy and cold. Winds: NW 8-13. High: 31.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and cold. Winds: NNW 5. Low: 25.
SUNDAY: Sunny peeks. Light snow Sunday night. Winds: S 5-10. High: 33.
MONDAY: Light snow, slushy travel. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 28. High: 33.
TUESDAY: Snow becomes heavier, few inches? Winds: NE 5-10. Wake-up: 30. High: 34.
WEDNESDAY: Light snow tapers to flurries late. Winds: N 8-13. Wake-up: 31. High: 33.
THURSDAY: Better travel, few flurries around. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 19. High: 28.
FRIDAY: Clouds linger, snow stays south. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 16. High: 25.
This Day in Weather History
November 12th
2000: A winter storm system produces a narrow band of heavy snow across extreme western Minnesota. Winds toward the end of the event were clocked between 15 and 25 mph, resulting in blowing snow leading to visibilities of 1 to 1.5 miles. Some snow totals included: Canby (Yellow Medicine County) with 6.5 inches, Madison (Lac Qui Parle County) with 6.0 inches.
1940: Record low highs are set in west central Minnesota. Alexandria records a high of 8 degrees Fahrenheit, Springfield and Willmar have highs of 10 degrees, and St. Cloud and Minneapolis have highs of 11 degrees.
1933: A dust storm hits southwest Minnesota, while a blizzard rages in the northwest part of the state.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
November 12th
Average High: 44F (Record: 65F set in 2001)
Average Low: 29F (Record: -4F set in 1966)
Record Rainfall: 0.9" set in 1965
Record Snowfall: 8.5" set in 1940
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
November 12th
Sunrise: 7:06am
Sunset: 4:47pm
Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 41 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 28 seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 5 hour & 58 minutes
Moon Phase for November 9th at Midnight
3.3 Days Before Last Quarter Moon
National High Temps Saturday
The weather outlook on Saturday shows warmer than average temps hanging on across the East Coast before much colder weather settles in. Readings across the western two-thirds of the nation will be well below average with quieter weather in place.
National Weather Outlook Saturday
The weather outlook for Saturday looks a little unsettled in the Northeast and the remnants of Nicole push through. Interestingly, it could be cold enough for some rain/snow across parts of the Northeast and high elevations.
National Weather Outlook
The weather outlook through the first half of the weekend looks wet in the Northeast as remnants of Nicole move through, The cold front sweeping through will chill things down enough for some snow potential in the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, another storm system will develop in the Western US, which could mean snowier conditions in the Central US during the middle part of next week. Stay tuned...
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavy precipitation from Nicole will push through the Northeast with isolated flood concerns. There will also be another surge of heavier rains in the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Snowfall Potential
According to the ECMWF (European model), there could be heavier snowfall from the Midwest to the Northeast over the coming days. Stay tuned...
Climate Stories
"8 billion people: Four ways climate change and population growth combine to threaten public health, with global consequences"
"There are questions that worry me profoundly as a population- and environmental-health scientist. Will we have enough food for a growing global population? How will we take care of more people in the next pandemic? What will heat do to millions with hypertension? Will countries wage water wars because of increasing droughts? These risks all have three things in common: health, climate change and a growing population that the United Nations forecasts will reach 8 billion people around Nov. 15, 2022 – double the population of just 48 years ago."
See more from the Conversation HERE:
"A mountain, a tower, a thermos of molten salt. These are the batteries that could power our renewable future"
"Blackouts are a devastating reality of our climate-changed world. An unprecedented winter storm in 2021 knocked out power for millions of Texans for days, killing hundreds, and this summer Californians managed to barely save their state's power grid from the brink of collapse during a record-breaking heat wave. Some blackouts are caused by storms destroying infrastructure like transmission lines and substations — just look at what's happened in Puerto Rico after Hurricanes Maria and, more recently, Fiona. But many blackouts can also be blamed on how the electric system works. Namely: The goal of the power grid is to deliver electricity to your home as soon as it's been generated at a power plant. There isn't a great pool of electricity waiting in reserve for when demand spikes. Experts say that needs to change."
"What is a flash drought? An earth scientist explains"
"Many people are familiar with flash floods – torrents that develop quickly after heavy rainfall. But there's also such a thing as a flash drought, and these sudden, extreme dry spells are becoming a big concern for farmers and water utilities. Flash droughts start and intensify quickly, over periods of weeks to months, compared to years or decades for conventional droughts. Still, they can cause substantial economic damage, since communities have less time to prepare for the impacts of a rapidly evolving drought. In 2017, a flash drought in Montana and the Dakotas damaged crops and grasses that served as forage for cattle, causing US$2.6 billion in agricultural losses."
See more From The Conversation HERE:
