Paul Douglas On Weather
See more of the story

Snow Covered Roads

As of 9AM, MN DOT was reporting partial to completely covered roads across much of central and southern Minnesota. Roads are generally completely covered across the Twin Cities metro, where several accidents and spinouts have been reported this morning. Snow will continue through much of the day and will wrap up this evening. Commuting across the metro will be a mess through the day and you can expect the evening commute to be problematic as well.

Winter Weather Advisory Tuesday


* WHAT... Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches.

* WHERE... Portions of east central Minnesota and northwest and west central Wisconsin.

* WHEN... Until 9 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS... Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commute.

Snowy Tuesday Ahead

Here's the simulated radar from midnight Monday night to midnight Tuesday night. Areas of light snow become more widespread through the day Tuesday and will eventually wrap up around 6pm-7pm Tuesday night. Shovelable snow amounts of 2" to 6" will be possible across parts of the region.

Timing of Tuesday's Snow

"Timing will be unfortunate, affecting both the morning and evening commute in the Twin Cities. Snow will start first in Minnesota and spread into Wisconsin later in the morning. Snow will also end from west to east this evening into tonight."

NWS Snowfall Potential

Here's the NWS Twin Cities snowfall prediction, which suggests a 2" to 7" swath of shovelable snow from southern Minnesota into western and northwestern Wisconsin. The heaviest amounts will be in Wisconsin, where some 6"+ amounts can't be ruled out.

Twin Cities Stats So Far This November

Despite all the ups and downs this month, the average temperature in the Twin Cities is actually running close to average. Through November 27th, precipitation was running a little above average with a -1.2" snowfall deficit.

Severe Threat Tuesday

According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, there is a MODERATE Risk of strong to severe thunderstorms on Tuesday across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail, damaging winds and even tornadoes will be possible. "There is a Moderate risk of severe weather forecast for tomorrow (11/29) across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley region. Tornadoes (some strong/long-track), damaging winds, and hail are all possible during the afternoon into the overnight. Stay weather aware in these areas."

Simulated Radar Tuesday

The simulated radar from 6am Tuesday to 6am Wednesday shows widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region, some of which will likely be strong to severe with large hail, damaging winds and even tornadoes. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with these storms as well.

"Hawaii's Mauna Loa is erupting for the first time since 1984"

"The world's largest active volcano, Mauna Loa on Hawaii, is erupting for the first time in nearly 40 years. Though lava is flowing down one side of the volcano, the eruption in Hawaii Volcanoes National Park is not threatening communities, the US Geological Survey said midday Monday. "All indications are that the eruption will remain in the Northeast Rift Zone," the agency said in an advisory, referring to an area where a volcano is splitting, allowing for lava flow. "Volcanic gas and possibly fine ash and Pele's Hair (strands of lava glass) may be carried downwind." A "trace to less than one quarter inch" of ashfall could accumulate on parts of the island, the National Weather Service in Honolulu said. "Passengers with flights to Hilo International Airport (ITO) or the Ellison Onizuka Kona International Airport at Keahole (KOA) should check with their airline prior to heading to the airport due to the volcanic activity at Mauna Loa," according to an advisory by the state Transportation Department."

See more from CNN HERE:

850mb Temp Anomaly

Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler through Thursday as our next storm system moves through the region. Highs on Friday will warm into the mid/upper 30s before another surge of cooler air works in again on Saturday.

Cooler Temps Ahead

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis through the first week of December looks overall cooler. However, temps on Friday could warm to near 40F before some cooler air arrives over the weekend and into the first full week of December.

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Tuesday

Here's the weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Tuesday, November 29th. It'll be a snowy day with accumulations likely through the day. Temperatures will only warm to near the freezing mark, which will be a little cooler than average for this time of the year.

Weather Outlook on Tuesday

Temps across the region on Tuesday will generally be below average by -5F to -10F around the region with snow likely. The southeastern side of the storm could be warm enough for a little rain to mix in.

Meteograms For Minneapolis

Temps on Tuesday won't move very much through the day with readings actually falling into the 20s by the afternoon and evening. Winds will be out of the north and could gust to near 15mph or 20mph.

Precipitation Departure From Average This Fall

It has been a very dry Fall so far with precipitation running more than -5.00" below average (since September 1st). The September 1st - November 27th time period was the 4th driest on record.

Precipitation Departure From Average Since Jan. 1st

The Twin Cities is nearly 9.97" below average for the year, which is the 17th driest start to any year on record (through November 27th). Meanwhile, International Fall, MN is still nearly 9.46" above average, which is still the 2nd wettest start to any year on record there.

Drought Update

It has been a dry year for many across central and southern MN. Extreme drought continues across parts of the Twin Cities to the Minnesota River Valley where rainfall deficits have been the greatest. It would be nice to get a good soaking prior to heading into winter, but it doesn't appear that anything substantial is on the way anytime soon.

Extended Precipitation Outlook

The extended precipitation outlook shows a swath of about 0.25" to 0.50" of liquid across parts of southern Minnesota (including the Twin Cities) and into Wisconsin.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows much cooler temps moving in through the midweek time period. The coldest day arrives Wednesday with readings only warming into the 20s, which will be nearly -10F to -15F below average. It'll be warmer on Friday with highs approach 40F once again.

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows snowy weather in place on Tuesday with cooler and quieter weather settling in midweek. We flirt with 40F on Friday before another cold slap arrives this weekend.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

Here's the ECMWF extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis through the end of the month and into early December. It'll be a colder midweek time period with readings warming back to near 40F on Friday. As we head into the first full week of December, temperatures look to be quite a bit colder.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temps hanging on across Southern and Southeastern US, while cooler than average temps will be in place across the northern and Western US.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather in place in the Western & Southern US with drier weather in place in the Great Lakes.

Plowable Snow Today Leaves Roads Slick
By Paul Douglas

The world's largest volcano, Mauna Loa, on Hawaii's Big Island, is erupting for the first time in 38 years - and a major tornado outbreak is likely over the Deep South later today.

In other news frozen water is in our forecast today; a plowable snow event that will leave roads and sidewalks slick. Most of MSP will pick up a cool 2-5" by the dinner hour, with only a coating of slush for St. Cloud. We've seen this movie before. Rinse and repeat.

Cold exhaust on the backside of today's storm will treat us to eye-watering winds tomorrow, which will make it feel like single digits. Thursday looks more tolerable, with low 40s Friday, before another wave of chilly air arrives next week. Models (specifically the European) consistently show a more significant snowstorm a week from today, followed by fresh air that would feel right at home in mid-January.

Public service reminder: no lava, ash clouds or EF-4 tornadoes hovering overhead. Just a swipe of bright white to get you into the holiday spirit.

Extended Forecast

TUESDAY: 2-5" snow. Slick. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 30.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow wraps up. Winds: SSE 5. Low: 20.

WEDNESDAY: Hello January! Feels like 5F. Winds: NW 15-30. Wake-up: 20. High: 23.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny and brisk. Winds: SE 10-20. Wake-up: 14. High: 31.

FRIDAY: Blue sky, thawing out. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 29. High: 42.

SATURDAY: Sunny peeks, blustery and cold. Winds: NW 20-40. Wake-up: 15. High: 20.

SUNDAY: Patchy clouds, not as windy. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 17. High: 32.

MONDAY: Another shot of snow arrives. Winds: NE 10-20. Wake-up: 13. High: 20.

This Day in Weather History

November 29th

1991: Parts of central Minnesota receive heavy snow including a record 16 inches of snow in New Ulm.

1835: A low of 11 below zero is reported at Ft. Snelling.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

November 29th

Average High: 35F (Record: 62F set in 1998)

Average Low: 22F (Record: -25F set in 1875)

Record Rainfall: 1.38" set in 1991

Record Snowfall: 12.6" set in 1991

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

November 29th

Sunrise: 7:28am

Sunset: 4:34pm

Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 5 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 1 minute & 39 seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 6 hour & 31 minutes

Moon Phase for November 29th at Midnight

0.3 Days Before First Quarter

National High Temps Tuesday

The weather outlook on Tuesday shows very warm weather in place from Chicago to the Gulf Coast with colder weather in place along the Front Range and the Western US. Highs in Denver and Billings will be near -20F to -25F below average for the end of November.

National Weather Outlook Tuesday

The weather outlook for Tuesday shows active weather in place across the Central US. Scattered showers and storms will develop in the Lower Mississippi Valley, some of which will be strong to severe with long-tracked tornadoes possible. There will also be areas of accumulating snow from the Plains to the Upper Midwest, some of which will be enough to shovel and plow.

National Weather Outlook

Weather conditions in the Central US will be quite active on Tuesday as a powerful storm system moves through. Severe storms will be likely in the Southern US with areas of heavy snow farther north. There is another developing storm system in the Northwestern US, where areas of heavy rain will be possible along the coast and heavy snow in the high elevations.

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavy precipitation across the gulf Coast and into the Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys. There will also be a surge of heavier precipitation across the Western US.

Snowfall Potential

According to the ECMWF (European model), areas of heavy snowfall will be found in the Western US, especially in the high elevations. There will be a round of plowable snow in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes with more snow possible into next week.

Climate Stories

"Climate-fuelled disasters: warning people is good, but stopping the disaster is best. Here are 4 possible ways to do it"

"Climate change is driving a worldwide increase in extreme events. The latest State of the Climate report confirms the risks of disasters are rising in Australia. Repeated floods have devastated our east coast. Other extreme events are getting worse too. Since 1987 bushfires have burnt increasing areas, peaking in 2019. This is in Australia – one of the world's wealthiest countries. In developing countries such as Pakistan, which has been devastated by floods, the situation is much worse. COP27 ended with an agreement on "loss and damage" funding for these vulnerable countries."

See more from The Conversation HERE:

"From the Ground Up: Diné Women Artists Fight for Environmental Justice"

"Yellow has long been a symbolically significant color within Diné (Navajo) culture, affiliated with Changing Woman, or Asdz ą ą Nádleehé, among the most important of the Diné Holy People, who is often given yellow corn pollen as an offering. She is in many ways a personification of Earth herself, responsible for the changing seasons; for the birth of the original clans from whom all Diné are descended; and for Diné women's transition through puberty. Yellow is also aligned with one of the four sacred mountains that delineates the parameters of Dinétah, the Diné homelands."

See more from Art News HERE:

"Al Gore's New Tool Can Zoom in on the Biggest Polluters in Your Town"

"If you've ever wondered how much methane the landfill in your neighborhood emits, there's now a way to potentially find out. A promising new tool can zoom in on spots around the world in various industries to measure just how much greenhouse gases those locations and facilities are emitting. The mapping tool, released last week at COP27 by the organization Climate TRACE, uses hundreds of satellites, thousands of mounted sensors, and various artificial intelligence models to measure the global emissions of different greenhouse gases from major sectors, including oil and gas production, waste disposal and management, agriculture, forestry and land use, transportation and power."

See more from Gizmodo HERE:

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX