Paul Douglas On Weather
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Drought Continues To Expand

Drought continues to expand across the state in the latest Drought Monitor update released Thursday. D2 (Severe) drought is now up to 4.82%, up from 2.14%, as we saw expansion across central Minnesota and in the Twin Ports region. D1 (Moderate) drought is now in place across 39.43% of Minnesota, more than doubling the percentage of the state under D1 Drought since last week (18.85%). Meanwhile, 92.32% of Minnesota is considered at least Abnormally Dry (D0).

There was no improvement anywhere across the state week-to-week, only degradation.

Since May 15th, MSP Airport has only picked up 0.27" of rain, making it the driest such May 15 through June 22 on record. All years in the record but two (this year and 1988) have picked up at least an inch of rain over the shown time period.

The only part of the state running above average in the precipitation department so far in 2023 is southern Minnesota, with Rochester still half an inch above average. Meanwhile, areas like International Falls and Grand Forks are over 3" below average for the year.

Just above everywhere across Minnesota into Wisconsin is running far below average for the month of June. Here in the Twin Cities, we are now over 3" below average in the month that is typically the wettest on average.


One More Hot Day Friday - Scattered Afternoon Storms

Forecast loop from 7 AM Friday to 7 AM Saturday

As we head through Friday, we will be watching more showers and storms start to move across the state. The best chances during the day will be across central and southern Minnesota - possibly as far south as the metro. As we head into the overnight hours, some more storms may pop across southern Minnesota with steadier rains in northern parts of the state.

Looking at the Twin Cities, Swifties may have to deal with a few of those showers and storms around as they head to the concert Friday Night... but if you get rained on you can always shake it off!

Across the state, we do have that scattered storm threat as we go through Friday, but chances seem to be a touch higher in parts of central and southern Minnesota. Highs will range from the 70s in northern Minnesota to the low 90s across southern parts of the state.


More Rain Into The Weekend

One-hour precipitation from 7 AM Saturday to 1 AM Monday.

As this system slowly works its way through the region, shower and storm chances will continue as we head through the weekend. The steadiest rain throughout the weekend may occur across southern Minnesota, with more waves the farther south you go across the state. The heaviest rain chances here in the metro appear to be during the later afternoon and the evening hours on Saturday, with another period of rain possible early Sunday morning and again in the midday through evening hours Sunday.

Some of the storms later on Saturday could be on the strong side, with a Slight Risk of severe weather (threat level 2/5) in place in southern Minnesota including Mankato, Marshall, and Worthington, and a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) up to around the I-94 corridor, including the Twin Cities. Very large hail will be the primary threat from severe storms. Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes also can't be ruled out.

A widespread 2-3"+ of (much-needed) rain is expected to fall through the weekend across parts of central and northern Minnesota, with at least an inch possible for the metro. Southern Minnesota will likely see the least amount of rain, with less than an inch possible.


Shower/Storms This Weekend

So as shown above, we will have to watch the chance of showers and thunderstorms - particularly later Saturday into Sunday - if you're heading to Taylor Swift Friday or Saturday evening or to any of the Twin Cities Pride Festival activities. The highest chances of rain in the metro will be from Saturday afternoon and evening, and again Sunday from the late morning through the evening. Temperatures start to cool down a touch into the weekend, only reaching the mid-80s on Saturday and mid-70s Sunday.


80s Next Week

Temperatures will climb back into the 80s as we head next week, but they will be a lot more seasonable vs. the stretch of 90s we saw this week.


Don't Leave Home Without Doppler In Your Pocket
By Paul Douglas

Some of the same people who decry the "nanny state" are the first to complain when a bad storm hits their home. "Where were the warnings, Paul?"

Exhibit A: At least 100 people were injured, some seriously, when ping pong to apple-size hail hit a concert at Red Rocks Park in Jefferson County, Colorado Wednesday night. People suffered cuts, broken bones and even concussions due to a lack of suitable shelter nearby.

How does this happen in 2023, when anyone can download a (free) Doppler radar app on their phone? Concert organizers should have called off the concert, but we all need to take personal responsibility to stay safe, no matter what Mother Nature hurls at us.

Today should be the 10th 90-degree day of the summer so far, with T-storms north of MSP. I see a better chance of showers and T-storms Saturday (severe risk southwest counties - heaviest rain falling at night). Models show 70s and showery rains spilling into Sunday.

Moderate drought over 40% of Minnesota? More than ever - let it rain.


Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

FRIDAY: Hot sun, T-storms up north. Wake up 72. High 91. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SW 7-12 mph.

SATURDAY: T-storms with heavy rain possible. Wake up 71. High 87. Chance of precipitation 90%. Wind SE 7-12 mph.

SUNDAY: Cooler with showers, few rumbles. Wake up 66. High 74. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

MONDAY: More clouds than sun, stiff breeze. Wake up 65. High 80. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind N 15-25 mph.

TUESDAY: Plenty of sunshine. Wake up 65. High 83. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind W 5-10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Clouds increase, late thunder? Wake up 63. High 85. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind SE 7-12 mph.

THURSDAY: Some sun, few heavy T-storms. Wake up 67. High 84. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind S 7-12 mph.


Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
June 23rd

*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 36 minutes, and 41 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 7 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 15 Hours Of Sunlight? July 24th (14 hours, 59 minutes, 22 seconds)
*When Are Sunrises After 6 AM? August 2nd (6:00 AM)
*Latest Sunsets Of The Year: June 21st-July 2nd (9:03 PM)

This Day in Weather History
June 23rd

2002: Just a few weeks after torrential rains hit the area, another round of heavy rain hits northern Minnesota. This time up to eight inches would fall in a two-day period in parts of Mahnomen and St. Louis Counties.


National Weather Forecast

Two frontal boundaries on Friday will lead to the best chances of showers and thunderstorms across the nation. The first extends from the Southern Plains to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. The second is across the Upper Midwest back into the Rockies. Some snow could mix in at times in the highest elevations of the Northern Rockies, mainly at night and the wee early morning hours. Hot weather will still be in place across portions of the Southern Plains but is expected to expand heading into the weekend.

Very heavy rain of at least 3" is expected to fall over the next couple of days across portions of the Northern Plains and in the Florida Panhandle. This rain could lead to some flash flooding.

Meanwhile, we are tracking two systems out in the Atlantic. Bret is approaching the Lesser Antilles late Thursday, crossing through the chain of islands into the Caribbean as we go through Thursday Night into Friday. This system will continue moving west, with upper-level winds helping to kill off the storm back to tropical wave status this weekend. Meanwhile, Four is expected to become Cindy as we head into Friday. This storm will continue to move northwestward into the weekend and early next week, moving northeast of the Antilles.


Texas Cities Set Temperature Records in Unremitting Heat Wave

More from Inside Climate News: "A searing heat wave has pushed temperatures to record highs in recent days in several cities in South and West Texas, prompting health advisories and pleas for energy conservation. Readings in Laredo, Del Rio, San Angelo and Junction were the highest ever recorded, according to the National Weather Service. Corpus Christi logged an unprecedented 125 degree heat index—a combined measurement of temperature and humidity—on Saturday, said Liz Sommerville, the service's lead forecaster there. And readings at six of 20 monitoring stations in Texas on Tuesday tied or exceeded the highest temperatures ever recorded on June 20, according to data compiled by the Southeast Regional Climate Center."

Talon Metals releases plan for Minnesota nickel mine that would supply Tesla

More from the Star Tribune: "Talon Metals took a major step Wednesday toward opening an underground nickel mine in northern Minnesota, submitting a plan to the state that will trigger a new discussion over the risks and benefits of hardrock mining. The company, based in the British Virgin Islands and run from Canada, has stressed the need for minerals to speed the transition away from fossil fuels. Talon signed a memorandum of understanding last year to supply roughly half the nickel it produces to Tesla for electric vehicle batteries. The details of this preliminary mine proposal will come under heavy scrutiny for the potential to harm the environment. Those concerns have stalled two copper-nickel mines proposed by other companies in northern Minnesota."

To reach net-zero emissions, American homes need an electric makeover

More from Grist: "Households in the U.S. use 1 billion fossil-fuel powered machines to heat our homes, cook food, and drive to work. Those residential appliances and vehicles produce 42 percent of the nation's energy-related emissions. But electric alternatives, like heat pumps and electric vehicles, already exist — and adopting them will help curb emissions, fast. A report released on Tuesday by the nonprofit Rewiring America found that to reach President Joe Biden's goal of a net-zero emissions economy by 2050, Americans will need to buy 14 million more electric household machines than usual over the next three years. Cora Wyent, director of research at Rewiring America, said that target is "ambitious, but it's achievable," mainly due to clean tech incentives created by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act and some state policies. The report finds that if there are enough early adopters, market trends will soon take over — eventually resulting in widespread adoption with little to no additional effort."


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- D.J. Kayser