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Halloween climatology in the Twin Cities
"Halloween is typically a time of crunchy leaves on the ground, a bit of chill in the air, and lots of candy. High temperatures in the Twin Cities are generally in the 40s and 50s. It is more common for the daily high on Halloween to be in the 60s than in the 30s. 70s tend to be rare, with only eight Halloween high temperatures being 70 degrees or above or about one in eighteen years. The warmest Halloween on record was 83 degrees in 1950, with one of the coldest one year later with a high of 30 in 1951. The coldest Halloween maximum temperature was a bone-chilling 26 degrees back in 1873. The last twenty-five years have had some balmy Halloween afternoons, like the 71-degree F high in 2000. We've had some chilly ones as well, like in 2017, when the temperature never rose above 35 F at MSP. The area has not seen a Halloween washout, with measurable precipitation during the evening, since 1997. Measurable precipitation has occurred on Halloween only 26% of the time in the Twin Cities, or 38 times out of 145 years. The most rain recorded was in 1979 with .78 inches. In 1991 .85 inches of precipitation fell, which was snow. In spite of the 1991 Halloween Blizzard, measurable snow on Halloween is about as rare as getting a full-sized candy bar in your trick-or-treat bag. Since 1872 there's been enough snow to measure only six times: 0.6 in 1884; 0.2 in 1885; 1.4 in 1932; 0.4 in 1954; 0.5 in 1995; and of course 8.2 inches, with the opening round of the Halloween Blizzard in 1991. Thus there has been measurable snow on only 4% of the days."
See more from the MN State Climatology Office HERE:
Twin Cities Halloween Outlook
Here's the Halloween outlook for the Twin Cities on Tuesday evening. Note that temps will hover around 30F with feels like temps in the lower 20s thanks to breezy NW winds around 15mph. It'll be a chilly Trick or Treat. Make sure the little ones are bundled up.
Halloween Outlook For Tuesday
The weather outlook for Halloween Tuesday looks quite chilly with readings only warming into the 20s and 30s across the state. This will be quite a bit below average for this time of the year. Thanks to some overnight snow on Monday, there may be a little white on the ground in some spots for Halloween night.
Halloween Extremes & Warming October Nights
Ghosts and ghouls might still haunt the streets for candy, but it seems like Halloween's getting a little cozier rather than spookier! According to a study by Climate Central, it turns out that across the United States, October nights have been getting warmer since 1970. That's right, a whopping 89% of the 244 cities they looked at have felt the heat creeping into their spooky season. It's not just a small change either; the average autumn temperature has risen by almost 3 degrees across the country. Specifically, those eerie October nights have warmed up by about 2.2 degrees on average! And hey, even in Minneapolis, known for its chilly Octobers, the nights have warmed up by a spine-tingling 3.8 degrees since 1970. Seems like the creatures of the night might be trading their capes for lighter clothes as the years go by!
KEY CONCEPTS
- Fall temperatures have warmed by 2.7°F on average across the U.S. since 1970.
- Fall warming can extend allergy and wildfire smoke seasons, and disrupt leaf-peeping.
- Warming trends have also taken the chill out of a fall tradition: trick-or-treating.
- From 1970 to 2022, October nights have warmed by 2.2°F on average across the U.S.
- Of 244 U.S. cities analyzed, 216 (89%) have seen October nights warm up since 1970.
- October nights have warmed by more than 2°F in 153 of the locations analyzed.
See more from Climate Central HERE:
Heavy Rainfall Since September 23rd
We've had some pretty incredible rainfall across parts of the state since September 23rd. In fact, some locations around the Twin Cities (highlighted in white and blue) have see nearly 10" of rain or more in a little more than 1 month!
Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook through next week shows lighter precipitation amounts across the state over the next several days, but some of this could be in the form of snow.
90 Day Precipitation Anomaly
Thanks to some recent heavy rains parts of the state are now in a surplus over the last 90 days. Some of the biggest surpluses are showing up in blue in pockets across parts of central Minnesota, including the Twin Cities and into western Wisconsin. It has been a very soggy last 5 weeks.
Drought Update
Recent heavy rains have helped the drought situation quite a bit in spots across the state. With that being said, we're still in a drought across much of the state with more than 50% under a moderate drought (or worse). Nearly 96% of the state is still abnormally dry, but there have been improvements
Fall Color Update
According to the MN DNR, much of Minnesota is at or past peak. Fall colors will continue to rapidly change, so take a moment and enjoy the season while you can. Note that most leaves will vacate the premises in a few weeks and won't return until sometime in mid/late May...
See more from the MN DNR HERE:
Wisconsin Fall Color Update
Here's a look at the fall color report in Wisconsin. Fall colors are peaking in some areas and peak isn't far away in others.
See more from Travel Wisconsin HERE:
Typical Peak Fall Color
According to the MN DNR, typical peak color arrives across the international border mid to late September with peak color arriving near the Twin Cities late September to mid October. It won't be long now and you'll be able to find your favorite fall color in a backyard near you.
7 Day Atlantic Outlook
The 7 day outlook for the Atlantic Basin shows another potential system developing in the Tropics that could drift west through the Caribbean.
Past Peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th, but did you know that the typical peak is September 10th? This is when the Atlantic Basin has had the most hurricanes and named storms since records began. This is also when weather conditions are at optimal levels for these types of storms.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Tuesday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Tuesday, October 31st will still be quite cold for this time of the year with readings only warming into the mid 30s. This will be nearly -15F below average for this time of the year. Note that feels like temps will be in the 10s and 20s for much of the day.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
Temperatures in Minneapolis will start in the upper 20s in the morning and will warm to the mid 30s by the afternoon, which will be nearly -15F below average for this time of the year. Winds will be quite gust early in the day, which will make it feel even colder.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows temps running well below average over the next several days. Highs will only warm into the 30s and 40s, which will be nearly -5F to -15F below average for the end of October and early November.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows cold weather lingering into the early part of November. We'll gradually warm into the mid 40s as we approach the end of the week/weekend, but we'll still be below average. We may see a bit of a wintry mix as we approach the weekend.
Colder Than Normal Lingers Into November
According to NOAA's National Blend of Models, temps will be significantly cooler over the next several days with highs only warming into the 30s and 40s. Overnight lows will be in the 20s over the next several days as well.
Weather Outlook
Weather conditions across the Central & Eastern US will be more active over the next few days with colder temperatures in place. The next few waves of unsettled weather arrive early November with minimal precipitation.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows Warmer than average temperatures across the western half the nation.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
The 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook shows drier than average weather across the southern US, wile more active weather will be in place across the Eastern and western US.
Morning Rush Hour: Slipping And Sliding
By Paul Douglas
Well that was sudden. Wasn't it in the 90s a few weeks ago? Winter comes on suddenly at this latitude. Exhibit A: this morning. An Alberta Clipper is pushing a pinwheel of snow across the state this morning, and most of us will see a coating to 2" before flakes taper by 9am or so.
In late March a coating of slush would be shrug-worthy. No big deal. But first snow of the season, with highway surface temperatures in the upper 20s? It'll be icy and dicey for the morning commute. Leave extra time (and space between vehicles). Slow down to lower the risk of a crunchy fender-bender. We've been through this drill countless times. It never gets old, huh?
Dinner time temperatures will be near 30F with a 20-degree wind chill for Trick or Treating. An elevated frostbite risk.
I see slight moderation as the week goes on with 40s returning by late week and a little rain Friday; again Sunday and Monday of next week.
I put my driveway stakes in yesterday, before the ground freezes up. Too early for Christmas lights?
Extended Forecast
TUESDAY: Early 1"+. Feels like 20F. Winds: NW 15-25. High: 35.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Winds: WNW 5-10. Low: 26.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy and breezy. Winds: SW 10-20. High 39.
THURSDAY: More clouds than sunshine. Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 28. High 42.
FRIDAY: Periods of rain likely. Winds: E 8-13. Wake-up: 32. High 44.
SATURDAY: Dry day but clouds linger. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 41. High 46.
SUNDAY: More light rain. Winds: E 8-13. Wake-up: 40. High: 44.
MONDAY: Light rain slowly tapers. Winds: N 10-20. Wake-up: 37. High: 41.
This Day in Weather History
October 31st
1991: The Great Halloween Blizzard begins. Trick or Treating was memorable for the few who ventured out. 8.2 inches of snow fell at MSP airport by midnight, with much more to come the following day.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
October 31st
Average High: 50F (Record: 83F set in 1950)
Average Low: 35F (Record: 15F set in 1878)
Record Rainfall: 0.85" set in 1991
Record Snowfall: 8.2" set in 1991
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
October 31st
Sunrise: 7:49am
Sunset: 6:03pm
Hours of Daylight: ~10 hours & 13 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: 2 Minutes & 51 Seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 5 Hour & 34 Minutes
Moon Phase for October 31st at Midnight
3.4 Days After Full "Hunters" Moon - Oct. 28 at 3:24 p.m. CDT "With the leaves falling and the deer fattened, it is time to hunt. Since the fields have been reaped, hunters can ride over the stubble, and can more easily see the fox, also other animals that have come out to glean and can be caught for a Thanksgiving banquet after the harvest. A partial lunar eclipse also occurs on this date. Unlike the May event, this one sees the moon brush the Earth's darker umbral shadow; at maximum (20:14 GMT) about 12% of the moon's diameter will be within the shadow, darkening its lower limb. The Earth's Eastern Hemisphere faces the moon when the eclipse takes place, however, Atlantic Canada will see the last of the umbra slip off the moon when it rises and sharp-eyed New Englanders will be able to perceive the faint shading of the penumbra as the moon appears above their horizon."
National High Temps on Tuesday
Temps on Tuesday will be well below average in the eastern US
National Weather Outlook For Tuesday
The National Weather Outlook on Tuesday shows unsettled weather across the Great Lakes and Eastern US.
National Weather Outlook
The National Weather outlook through Wednesday shows some rain and snow across the Northeast, while another storm system develops in the Northwest.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook shows widespread rainfall across the Pacific Northwest with elevated amounts across the Great Lakes.
Extended Snowfall Outlook
According to the ECMWF weather model, areas of snow will be found across parts of the northern tier of the nation.
Climate Stories
"Life on Earth under 'existential threat': climate scientists"
"Climate change poses an "existential threat" to life on Earth, prominent scientists warned Tuesday, in an assessment on this year's avalanche of heat records and weather extremes that they said are hitting more ferociously than expected. With expectations that 2023 will be the hottest year on record, regions across the planet have been scorched by deadly heat waves. Others have been hit by floods, or in some cases, have suffered both extremes in quick succession. "The truth is that we are shocked by the ferocity of the extreme weather events in 2023. We are afraid of the uncharted territory that we have now entered," said an international coalition of authors in a new report published in the journal BioScience. Their stark assessment: "Life on planet Earth is under siege". They said humanity had made "minimal progress" in curbing its planet-heating emissions, with major greenhouse gases at record levels, and subsidies for fossil fuels soaring last year."
"UN report warns of catastrophic climate tipping points: California is nearing several"
"Humanity is on course to transgress multiple global "tipping points" that could lead to irreversible instability or the complete collapse of ecological and institutional systems, a United Nations report has warned. The third annual Interconnected Disaster Risks report from the U.N. University's Institute for Environment and Human Security in Bonn, Germany, found that drastic changes will occur if urgent actions are not taken around six moments when sociological systems are no longer able to buffer risks. The tipping points include several issues that California is confronting head-on—groundwater depletion, rising insurance costs, extreme heat and species extinction. The other threats are melting glaciers and space debris. According to U.N. officials, "when one system tips, other systems may also be pushed over the edge." "The very practical consequence will be that much more people will live under very precarious conditions—so loss of life, loss of livelihood and loss of opportunities," said Zita Sebesvari, deputy director at the U.N. University Institute and one of the lead authors of the report. "It does have cascading impacts."
"MAJOR SOLAR CAR COMPANY CUTS THE LIGHTS ON SOLAR-POWERED CARS — HERE'S WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE FUTURE OF THE YOUNG INDUSTRY"
"The struggles continue for the still-young solar car industry, as Dutch startup Lightyear is reportedly bankrupt and has announced plans to pivot to manufacturing solar roofs for cars instead of a full solar car. What is happening? Lightyear has already had a bumpy ride — its first car, the Lightyear 0, was supposed to start deliveries in 2022, but the company went bankrupt before that could happen. After securing a new round of investments, Lightyear began to design a new version of the car called Lightyear 2. Unfortunately, deja vu has struck, and Lightyear is now bankrupt again. This time, CEO and co-founder Lex Hoefsloot has indicated that the company is done (for now) trying to deliver on a completely solar-powered car. However, Hoefsloot did tell Silicon Canals that Lightyear would be, "deploying integrated solar systems for cars at scale as these are closest to the market. For the other core technologies (e.g. the inwheel-motors) Lightyear continues to strengthen its collaboration and partnerships strategy to get highly efficient solar vehicles to market. We believe that this stronger focus and stepwise approach will be the fastest way to impact."
See more from The Cooldown HERE:
