Paul Douglas On Weather
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No Change In The Drought Monitor

We're reaching the time of the year when it'll become tough to see major changes to the drought monitor across the region... and in this week's update, there is no change to the numbers. Approximately 89.4% of Minnesota remains under at least abnormally dry conditions, with 0.25% under Extreme Drought.


Sun/Cloud Mix To Mainly Cloudy Saturday - Snowflakes Overnight?

A sun/cloud mix to mainly cloudy Saturday is expected here in the metro - but, besides that, we aren't tracking any major concerns. Morning temperatures will start in the mid-20s with highs in the mid/upper 30s.

A mix of sun and clouds to mainly cloudy skies is expected across much of the state on Saturday. Temperatures will mainly be above average, touching the 40s in southwest Minnesota but stuck in the 30s elsewhere. A system mainly passing to our east could bring some snow to southeastern Minnesota (maybe reaching the metro?) Saturday Night. In far southeast Minnesota, totals from this snowfall might approach an inch or an inch and a half.


Flurry Chance Early Sunday?

Sunday: Some early-day flurries can't be ruled out, otherwise, mainly cloudy conditions are expected. Highs will be in the upper 30s.

Monday: Another day with more clouds than sun in the metro, but it'll be dry. Highs once again will reach the upper 30s.


40s Return Next Week

A clipper looks to bring some light rain/snow showers Monday Night into Tuesday, but that's about the best snow chance as we head into next week - and, even then, any snow that might accumulate looks to melt quickly. While temperatures are expected to be in the 30s through Tuesday, we'll see highs warm into the low/mid-40s Wednesday into the first half of next weekend.


November Recap

Temperatures: The average temperature for November was 38.5F in the metro - 3.7F above average and good enough for the 18th warmest November on record.

Precipitation: All climate sites will go down as "below-average" for precipitation in November. The greatest precipitation departures can be found in eastern and southern Minnesota, where areas finished the month at least an inch below average. In the metro, November will go down as the second driest November on record with only 0.04".

Snowfall: In the metro, where only 0.5" has fallen, this November will go down as a tie for technically the 14th least snowy on record. The year with the least amount of snow in November - 1880 - has a lot of missing data for the month, so we will take that data point out to get us to the 14th least snowy. With only 1.3" of snow, Duluth is over a foot below average snowfall-wise for November - tied for the 13th least snowy November on record.


Quiet Start To December But Winter Is Coming
By Paul Douglas

I know it doesn't look like winter outside your window, but as far as the atmosphere is concerned, meteorological winter, marking the 90 coldest days of winter, arrived December 1.

Winter is getting off to a slow start. My snowmobiling-friends are in a deep, dark funk, but don't give up on snow just yet. Weather models bring a mix of snow and ice into the state a week from Sunday. Confidence levels are low, but even with a strong El Nino deflecting many of the storms south of Minnesota, a few will show up at our doorstep. The law of averages eventually catches up with you.

A quiet weekend is on tap with a few sunny breaks and upper 30s. A disorganized clipper may leak a little rain or wet snow on our heads Monday night, with little or no accumulation. We are heading into a colder pattern by mid-December. Nothing arctic (yet) but the storm track may edge closer to Minnesota.

At MSP it was the second driest November, 15th least snowy November (.4") and 18th warmest (+3.7F). How long can this go on?


Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SATURDAY: Peeks of sunshine. Wake up 25. High 38. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 8-13 mph.

SUNDAY: Mix of clouds and sun. Wake up 28. High 39. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SE 8-13 mph.

MONDAY: Clouds increase, nighttime mix? Wake up 25. High 40. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind S 10-15 mph.

TUESDAY: Skies slowly clear. Wake up 29. High 41. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy, light mix up north. Wake up 28. High 43. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy, a little rain north. Wake up 31. High 46. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind SW 8-13 mph.

FRIDAY: Sunny spells, slightly cooler. Wake up 33. High 42. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.


Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
December 2nd

*Length Of Day: 9 hours, 0 minutes, and 49 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 1 minute and 29 seconds

*Day With The Least Amount Of Sunlight: December 21st (8 hours, 46 minutes, 10 seconds)
*When Is The Latest Sunrise? December 30th-January 5th (7:51 AM)
*What Is The Earliest Sunset? December 8th-14th (4:31 PM)

This Day in Weather History
December 2nd

1985: Record low highs are set in north and east central Minnesota with temperatures ranging from the single digits below zero to the singles digits above. Alexandria was the cold spot with a high of 4 degrees Fahrenheit below zero. Other record low high temperatures included Redwood Falls with 3 below, Long Prairie with zero, and Litchfield and Little Falls with 5 degrees above zero.

1982: A record high of 63 degrees is set at the Twin Cities.


National Weather Forecast

Two main areas of precipitation will impact the nation as we head through Saturday. One across the eastern United States will bring showers and storms from the Gulf Coast to the Northeast, with mixed precipitation/snowfall in New England back into parts of the Upper Midwest. Another system will impact the Pacific Northwest with heavy rainfall and copious mountain snowfall.

Two areas of heavy precipitation are expected through the weekend - one in the Southeast and another in the Northwest. In both areas, rainfall totals of 3-6" are possible.

As we continue to see rounds of snow in the western United States through the weekend, several feet of snow could accumulate within the mountain ranges. The Sierra, unfortunately, will mostly get missed.


Nations pledge millions to new climate damage fund at COP28, US criticized for its small contribution

More from CNN: "Global delegates at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai formally adopted a damage fund that was decades in the making, and several countries pledged millions of dollars to it to help nations hit hardest by the climate crisis – an early success on the first day of talks that allows more time to discuss the thorny issues around slashing fossil fuels. But the United States is receiving criticism for contributing an "embarrassing" amount of money to the fund, less than a fifth of the United Arab Emirates' contribution and 14 times less than the European Union's. Demand for a fund to channel money to developing countries to help them cope with the impacts of climate change has for years stymied progress at the annual negotiations. The details of the fund were agreed to earlier this month at a pre-COP meeting and were formalized Thursday, in the hope it would allow for progress in other areas at the summit."

The University of California has all but dropped carbon offsets—and thinks you should, too

More from MIT Technology Review: "In the fall of 2018, the University of California (UC) tasked a team of researchers with identifying tree planting or similar projects from which it could confidently purchase carbon offsets that would reliably cancel out greenhouse gas emissions across its campuses. The researchers found next to nothing. "We took a look across the whole market and did deeper dives into project types we thought were more promising," says Barbara Haya, director of the Berkeley Carbon Trading Project, housed within UC Berkeley's Center for Environmental Public Policy, who led the effort. "And we came up almost empty." The findings helped prompt the entire university system to radically rethink its sustainability plans. In July, UC announced it would nearly eliminate the use of third-party offsets, charge each of its universities a carbon fee for ongoing pollution, and focus on directly cutting emissions across its campuses and health facilities."

Antarctica's ancient ice sheets foreshadow dynamic changes in Earth's future

More from the University of Wisconsin: "Nineteen million years ago, during a time known as the early Miocene, massive ice sheets in Antarctica rapidly and repeatedly grew and receded. The Miocene is widely considered a potential analog for Earth's climate in the coming century, should humanity remain on its current carbon emissions trajectory. Identifying how and why Antarctica's major ice sheets behaved the way they did in the early Miocene could help inform understanding of the sheets' behavior under a warming climate. Together, the ice sheets lock a volume of water equivalent to more than 50 meters of sea level rise and influence ocean currents that affect marine food webs and regional climates. Their fate has profound consequences for life nearly everywhere on Earth. While fluctuations in Antarctica's ice sheets have, over the span of millions of years, grown and diminished at regular intervals tied to natural oscillations in Earth's journey in orbit, researchers at the University of Wisconsin–Madison and their collaborators around the world have uncovered evidence that Antarctica's ice sheets grew and shrank more frequently during the Miocene epoch than was previously known."


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- D.J. Kayser