Gophers at No. 16 Penn State
6:30 p.m. Saturday, Beaver Stadium, Ch. 5, 100.3-FM
The last time the Gophers played Penn State, they won a 31-26 thriller between unbeaten teams in Minneapolis during their 11-2 season in 2019. This year, both the Gophers (4-2, 1-2 Big Ten) and Nittany Lions (5-1, 2-1) limp into this "White Out" game after decisive losses to Illinois and Michigan, respectively.
Three big story lines
1. Who will start at quarterback for each team?
Both the Gophers' Tanner Morgan and Penn State's Sean Clifford left their games because of injuries last week and are questionable to play. Morgan (head) did make the trip to Penn State with the team, but if he can't play, he would be replaced by either redshirt freshman Athan Kaliakmanis or fourth-year sophomore Cole Kramer. Clifford, who appeared to injure a shoulder, was replaced by true freshman Drew Allar.
2. How will the Gophers handle the "White Out"?
The Gophers are 1-1 in Big Ten road games this year, but they've yet to experience the "White Out" at Beaver Stadium, where a crowd of 107,000 is expected. Penn State puts special emphasis on this game, and the Gophers will need to rely on their veteran leadership to succeed.
3. Can the Gophers end their skid?
Under coach P.J. Fleck, the Gophers haven't had a three-game losing streak since they lost four in a row and five of six in 2018, a stretch that prompted the firing of defensive coordinator Robb Smith. So far, Minnesota's four victories are against teams that are a combined 6-20. They could use a signature win.
Two key matchups
Gophers wide receivers vs. Penn State secondary
The Gophers ran only 42 offensive plays at Illinois, so opportunities were few, but they need much more from their wide receivers. Daniel Jackson had the only catch from the wideout group, with one reception for 4 yards. Mike Brown-Stephens and Dylan Wright came up empty on three targets each.
Gophers offensive line vs. Penn State defensive line
Minnesota struggled against the defensive fronts of Purdue and Illinois. Penn State's PJ Mustipher, a 318-pound tackle, is a force inside with 23 tackles this season. Gophers center John Michael Schmitz, graded the nation's best by Pro Football Focus, can't do it all himself.
One stat that matters
6-for-19: The Gophers offense's performance on third-down conversions over the past two games, a 31.58% rate that's a far cry from their nation's-best 66.2% (47-for-71) for the season.
The Gophers will win if …
They find a way to be more than one-dimensional on offense and their defense takes advantage of Clifford, who can be mistake-prone, or the freshman Allar. Minnesota can run the ball with Mohamed Ibrahim, but if he's the only option, this season could go off the rails in a hurry.
The Nittany Lions will win if …
They follow Illinois' blueprint of ball-control offense and solid third-down defense, limiting the time the Gophers have the ball and forcing them to play from behind. Also, avoiding turnovers, the fuel of upsets, will be important.
Prediction
The stretch of three road games and one home contest was going to be challenging for the Gophers, who started it well with a 34-7 win at Michigan State. They can get their season pointed in the right direction if they pull off the upset in Happy Valley.
That task becomes tougher if Morgan can't play and Kaliakmanis or Kramer must make their first career start in a hostile environment. The QB situation means Ibrahim becomes even more important. The good news for the Gophers is that Penn State gave up 418 yards on the ground at Michigan, so there might be opportunities.
The Nittany Lions are facing a lot of pressure after back-to-back seasons of 4-5 and 7-6, and this game looms big because Ohio State visits next week.
My expectation: While Penn State has its flaws, and Michigan exposed them last week, the Nittany Lions will have too much for a Gophers team that suddenly is full of questions. Penn State 24, Gophers 13.
![The Gophers student section cheered before Thursday's game against the Ohio State Buckeyes. ] AARON LAVINSKY • aaron.lavinsky@startribune.com](https://arc.stimg.co/startribunemedia/W5AIBRHHX4IM65PVZWQKSG3LLM.jpg?w=75&h=75&fit=crop&crop=faces)
