Here we are, two weeks after the most questionable Kentucky Derby finish and decision in the history of the event. There's a Irish proverb "The best horse doesn't always win the race," which was the case in the Derby. The disqualification of Maximum Security, suspension of jockey Luis Saez, and owners of Maximum Security filing a lawsuit, only adds to to the drama. Also, we won't have a Triple Crown winner this year, because declared winner, Country House, came down with a cough according to trainer Bill Mott. Now we have a Preakness field of 13, with only four runners coming from the Derby. Of the nine new shooters, I feel a few of them could make a dent in the 144th running of the Preakness Stakes in Baltimore.
I think this year's race sets up well for closers, and closers for the most part, have had a strong say on the exotic tickets. The average $1 Trifecta payout for the last 15 years is $662. I could see a big price or two, coming from off the pace and slipping in for the minor awards. This is a solid betting race, especially compared to last year when Triple Crown winner Justify won for fun in the fog and on a sloppy track. Weather suggests sunny skies and a fast track, which leads me to believe the pace will be swift from the start.
IMPROBABLE, who was pushed up to the fourth spot in the Derby after the DQ, is your morning line favorite for trainer Bob Baffert at 5/2. He was my top pick in the Derby, but had legit excuse of a troubled journey in first half-mile. Not that he was going to win, but it took him off his game. I'm not going to make him my top choice today, but he does appear the one to beat on paper.
I'm leaning towards a new shooter, who is all about speed and comes in with six consecutive victories. Good luck with your bets ... and don't forget to put some closers on your tickets.
Main Contenders
ALWAYSMINING comes in with a six race winning streak, and keeps getting better with each effort. Versatile runner can take the lead or sit right behind the front runner for first attack. He has plenty of speed in his arsenal. I do believe his 8-1 morning line odds will be diminished at the betting windows, because his last nine races have been at Laurel Park in Maryland. So he'll be a hometown favorite. His last race was a 11-length victory in the Federico Tesio Stakes. He will have to step it up a notch to get the win, because he lacks the class and speed figures to match many of his rivals, Trainer Kelly Rubley, will attempt to become the first female trainer to win the Preakness. I think she has a strong chance to it. Drawing the 7 post is only a plus to me, with the speed to the inside of him. It gives jockey Daniel Centeno options where to sit his runner. Watch out if gets clear.
IMPROBABLE has the best speed figures in the field and now gets Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith as the pilot. Baffert and Smith are one of the most dangerous combinations in the game. As I mentioned earlier, Improbable ran a better race than most think, with the early troubles he had in the slop. My concern is, once he did have open ground to run, he gained mildly -- at best. I was expecting more from him. The other concern, he hasn't won a race this year. The Preakness favorite has won 51% of the races, and trainer Baffert is going for his eighth Preakness title. Speed makes him a threat, but expect him to sit in the middle of the pack with dead aim on the front runners.
BOURBON WAR and OWENDALE are my closers with the big prices. Both are late runners and will be compromised by a fast pace. Bourbon War finished fourth in his last effort in the Florida Derby, but had to run down an extremely slow pace. He's been training well coming in, and there is no shot of a slow pace today. Owendale upset the field last out in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. Should save enough ground cruising near the rail, and close with a rush, if ready to go.
LAUGHING FOX has won three of his last five races, and too will benefit from contested fractions. Not sure if he can win, but I could see him passing runners down the stretch at a huge price and sneaking in for the underneath spots.
$100 Wagering Menu
$20 Win and Place (Alwaysmining) $40
$1 Trifecta Box (Alwaysmining, Improbable, Bourbon War, Owendale, and Laughing Fox) $60
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