Let it Snow!
Is this the year the favorite finally gets beat? The betting favorite has won the last four Kentucky Derby's, and last year the top four betting choices finished in the top four spots. This year's crop is not one of the strongest and it's tough to separate most the field.
The top runners in this year's field have all had bumps in the road leading up to the Derby. The prep races were hard to evaluate. So if there was ever an opportunity for a foreign runner to make the journey across the waters and capture the Roses, it's with Thunder Snow.
Thunder Snow is the class of the field, two-for-two on the dirt, and he has raced farther than his opponents, winning the UAE Derby at 1 3/16 miles. No Dubai winner has ever won the Kentucky Derby; never been close to be honest. I know he has many things going against him: crossing the ocean six days before the Derby and getting accommodated to his new surroundings in such a short time, not to mention starting from Post 2. But if there was ever a chance for a visitor from across the pond to make a strong showing, this is the year. Thunder Snow will be big odds at post time and it makes sense to take a shot with this talented magnificent looking colt in this wide-open race.
My Top Contenders
THUNDER SNOW: Is a big strong Irish-bred three year old colt out of the very successful Godolphin Stable. Thunder Snow is going to be reasonably close to the pace, where I think you want to be in the Derby. I think the pace will be legit for the first half-mile, but not punishing, making it tougher for deep closers to swoop on when things unfold down the stretch. Thunder Snow had a successful turf career before switching to dirt this year. He ran down an undefeated Japanese colt in the UAE Derby in a hard-fought duel down the stretch. My eyes don't lie, that was a pretty impressive victory in a 16-horse field in quality time. The mile-and-a-quarter will not be an issue for him, he can run till the cows come home. Class and speed will win this race, and he has both, and without a blemish on his résumé. He's going to need a swift break and get up quickly to the front, so he doesn't get pinched while saving ground with the inside draw. Expect to get around 20-1 at the betting window, and with one of the best International rider's in Christophe Soumillon as the pilot.
MCCRAKEN: Has been training like a machine in the mornings this past week and has won all three starts at Churchill Downs. Bred well for the distance and is a major player at decent odds. Expect him to do his better running late but will need a decent pace to close on. Slight concern for him is that he was on bed rest with a swollen ankle after his win in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs in February and didn't race again until April, where he finished third in the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland. The three-for-three at Churchill Downs is tough to ignore and is a must use on your ticket.
CLASSIC EMPIRE: Is the reigning two year old champ and most likely the post time favorite. Enters off an impressive win in the Arkansas Derby, which came after a 2 1/2-month layoff and recovering from a foot abscess and back issues. Distance and traffic problems shouldn't be a problem. Enjoys staying within striking range and if at the top of his game, could prove tough to beat.
ALWAYS DREAMING: Has been a tad of a basket case in the morning works and not sure what to make out of that, but still must be considered as a major player. He's perfect in his three races as a three year old for trainer Todd Pletcher. Won the Florida Derby by five lengths in impressive fashion, making him a top choice for many handicappers to win the Derby. Expect jockey John Velasquez to pressure front-runner FAST AND ACCURATE, and get first shot in taking over when asked. Logical threat with his quick turn of foot. Wouldn't surprise me to see him maybe take the lead and try to run out the clock to the wire. Very gifted runner if ready to roll.
IRISH WAR CRY: Is another runner with good tactical speed who will be on or near the lead. Winner of the Holy Bull Stakes and Wood Memorial, is a major contender. Concerns are that he threw in a clunker in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and the Wood Memorial hasn't produced a Derby winner since Funny Cide won in 2003. Expect him to show early speed and stay out of traffic trouble sitting behind Always Dreaming.
HENCE: Will be flying from the clouds and could slip in for the minor awards. Winner of the Sunland Park Derby, has been training well for trainer Steve Asmussen and could be peaking at the right time. Will need a quick pace and clean trip to pay dividends, but is the kind of runner you need on your trifecta ticket to pay handsomely.
Wagering Menu:
50 cent Trifecta Box (Thunder Snow, McCraken, Classic Empire, Always Dreaming, Irish War Cry, and Hence) $60
Thunder Snow $5 Win $15 Place $20 Show
$100 Total
