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New Year's Eve Snow Reports & Crashes
There was a little snow and ice across the region late Saturday night into AM Sunday that prompted a Winter Weather Advisory for some locations. Snowfall reports weren't all that impressive, but it was just enough to cause some issues on area roadways. According to the MN State Patrol, there were 339 crashes across the statewide through 6:30AM Sunday, 36 of which caused injuries. There were also 122 vehicle spinouts and 5 jackknifed semis. The MSP Airport only picked up 0.8" of snow, which adds to the seasonal total, but we're still quite a bit below average for the season.
"Top Five Weather Events for 2023 in Minnesota"
"Here are the results of voting for the top five weather events of 2023 from the Minnesota State Climatology Office. Votes were cast from various weather enthusiasts including the National Weather Service, the University of Minnesota, State agencies and Facebook followers. #5 "Big Mess" Snowstorm Clobbers Minnesota: January 2-5, 2023 The New Year greeted Minnesota with a large, messy winter storm, as a concoction of heavy snow, freezing rain, sleet, rain, and thunderstorms pounded parts of the state. The storm produced widespread accumulations of over one foot, with 15.1 inches for a storm total in the Twin Cities, making this the 14th-largest snowstorm on record since 1884."
See more from the MN State Climatology Office HERE:
A Historically Warm, Wet, and Snowless December in Minnesota
"No below-normal temperatures all month in St. Cloud and the Twin Cities December 2023 featured an extraordinary combination of warmth, wetness, and snowlessness, breaking or challenging records in all three categories. In many regards, December was more like November in Minnesota, with bare ground dominating the landscape across the state for much or all of the month, and temperatures remaining mild virtually every day, with a few bouts of very to extremely warm weather. A rare holiday heat wave arrived with precipitation event that produced rain almost exclusively, and propelled the month to the top of the precipitation charts as well. Strong El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean have kept frigid winter air masses locked up in central and northern Canada, 1,000 to 2,000 miles to our north. Most days have been much warmer than average, and passing cold fronts have struggled to bring in anything other than seasonally-normal air."
See more from the MN State Climatology Office HERE:
Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI)
"Winter seasons have significant societal impacts across all sectors ranging from direct human health and mortality to commerce, transportation, and education. The question "How severe was this winter?" does not have a simple answer. At the very least, the severity of a winter is related to the intensity and persistence of cold weather, the amount of snow, and the amount and persistence of snow on the ground. The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) was developed to objectively quantify and describe the relative severity of the winter season."
It's probably no surprise, but most locations around the Midwest and Great Lakes have had a "Mild" winter so far. Again, we're still waiting for the other boot to drop, but being in an El Nino setup, a winter like last year is not really in the cards. The Midwest will likely see an overall warmer and less snowy winter.
"Mild" Winter So Far in for the Twin Cities
Here's a look at the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) for Minneapolis, MN so far this winter season. With a lack of cold temps and snow, it may be no surprise that we are currently sitting under a "Mild" winter rating so far.
Twin Cities December Summary So Far
Meanwhile, it was a very warm and snowless December so far in the Twin Cities. Temperatures were nearly +12.0F above average, which is the warmest December on record in the Twin Cities. It was also one of the top 20 least snowy Decembers on record as well.
3rd Warmest Year on Record
It certainly was warm year, but did you realize that MSP just had its 3rd warmest year on record? The average temperature at MSP for all of 2023 was only 0.9F behind the 2 warmest years on record, which was 2012 and 1931.
Seasonal Snowfall So Far
The Twin Cities has only seen ~5" of snow this season, which is more than -13.0" below normal snowfall, which is the top 15 least snowy starts to any season on record. With only ~8" of snow in Duluth, they are more than 2 feet below normal snowfall and good enough for the top 10 least snowy starts to any season on record. Marquette, MI is nearly 52" below normal snowfall and currently sitting at the 4th least snowy start to any season on record.
Seasonal Snowfall Departure From Average
Looking around the region, there is no climate site that has a surplus. The biggest deficits are around the Great Lakes, where we typically get lake effect snow, but with a lack of Arctic air, we haven't seen much in the way of heavy snow yet this season.
Twin Cities Average Snowfall
Depending on what 30-year average you look at, December is typically the 1st or 2nd snowiest month out of the year in the Twin Cities. If you look at the last 30 years 1993-2022, December averages 12.7" of snow and is the snowiest month of the year, followed by January with nearly 11" of snow.
Quiet Early 2024. More Active By The Weekend?
The weather outlook through the first week of January looks pretty quiet across much of the Midwest. However, things could get a little more interesting as we approach the weekend and next week. Some of the longer-range models are suggesting the potential of more active weather across the Midwest and Central US. Stay tuned...
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For New Year's Day
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Monday, January 1st will be quieter and sunnier than it was on New Year's Day. Some of the snow and ice left on area roads and sidewalks will have a chance to melt a little in the New Year's sunshine.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
Temperatures in the Twin Cities will start lower 20s in the morning and will warm into the lower 30s by the afternoon. Much of the day will be sunny and dry with a breezy southwesterly wind around 15mph to 20mph.
Weather Outlook For New Year's Day Monday
The weather outlook for Monday will warm into the 30s across much of the state, which will still be nearly 10F to 15F above average under mostly sunny and dry skies.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis will still be warmer than average by nearly 5F to 10F through the first few days of 2024.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook for Minneapolis over the next 7 days will warm into the 20s and 30s through the upcoming weekend, which will still be nearly 5F to 10F above average for early January. The extended weather outlook through the week ahead keeps us still very quiet around the region, but as we approach the weekend and the following week, things could get a little more active. Stay tuned...
Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
Temps in the Twin Cities through the first week and a half of January look to remain above average by nearly 5F to 10F. However, we are getting indications of cooldown as we approach mid-month and beyond. Note that we have had very little in the way of cold air this season, so it may feel quite a bit colder during the 2nd half of the month. Stay tuned...
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook, we're finally starting to see some changes. Note that colder than average temperatures may start to develop across the western half of the country, including the Midwest!
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
The 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook shows more active weather across the Southern two-thirds of the nation and especially in the Southeastern and Southwestern US.
It Will Actually Feel Like January Next Week
By Paul Douglas
Snowstorm. Noun. "A heavy fall of snow that is blown by strong winds". Writing this down. Most of Minnesota has yet to experience an old fashioned snowstorm this winter. The metro's 5+" of snow this winter has come from a rag-tag collection of Alberta Clippers. Last winter we had already picked up over 33" of white gold. Darn El Nino.
Weather models hint at snow early next week, but latest runs keep the heaviest amounts south of Minnesota. Again. This could be a major snowstorm for Kansas City, Chicago and Detroit, but it's still early in the game.
Temperatures run 5-10F above average this week but a shot of colder air arrives next week with a few days in the teens; nights near 0F. ECMWF ensemble models predict a few subzero nights around January 20-22, with highs topping 40F again in late January and early February. Darn El Nino.
I miss the snow but I can live without 20 below. NOAA data shows heating bills since September are 24% lower than during an average winter. Thank you El Nino. And Happy New Year!
Extended Forecast
NEW YEAR'S DAY (MONDAY): Partly sunny, milder. Winds: SW 10-15. High: 32.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Winds: SW 10-15. High 27.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy skies. Winds: NW 10-20. High 33.
WEDNESDAY: More clouds than sun. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 28. High 30.
THURSDAY: Sunny and quiet. Winds: SW 5-10. Wake-up: 18. High 31.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy, thawing out. Winds: SW 5-10. Wake-up: 23. High 35.
SATURDAY: Chance of light snow developing. Winds: NE 8-13. Wake-up: 26. High 33.
SUNDAY: Flurries give way to clearing, colder. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 22. High: 29.
This Day in Weather History
January 1st
2003: On this date there is an inch or less of snow on the ground from Duluth to the Iowa border. In the Twin Cities there isn't even a dirty snowbank to be found.
1997: Freezing rain causes numerous accidents along the North Shore. In Lake County, vehicles could not get up hills and were blocking roads. Highway 61 was closed for several hours from Two Harbors to Silver Bay.
1864: Extremely cold air moves into Minnesota. The Twin Cities have a high of 25 degrees below zero.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
January 1st
Average High: 25F (Record: 48F set in 1897)
Average Low: 11F (Record: -30F set in 1974)
Record Rainfall: 0.44" set in 1941
Record Snowfall: 4.0" set in 1914
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
January 1st
Sunrise: 7:50am
Sunset: 4:42pm
Hours of Daylight: ~8 hours & 51 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: 24 Seconds
Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 5 minutes
Moon Phase for January 1st at Midnight
3.2 Days Since First Quarter
National High Temps on Monday
The weather outlook on Monday looks fairly mild across much of the nation for the first day of the new year except for the Southern US, where temps will be a little cooler. Much of the nation will be quiet as well.
National Weather Outlook For Monday
The National Weather Outlook on Monday will be mostly quiet across the nation except for a few spots. There could be a little rain/snow in the Eastern US and a little light rain across the Lower Mississippi Valley.
National Weather Outlook
The National Weather outlook through Tuesday shows a little light rain/snow pushing through the Eastern US through the New Year. Some rain and thunder will develop across parts of the Southern US early this week with a bigger storm system moving into the Western US by midweek.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook shows heavier precipitation developing across the Southern and Eastern US through the first week of 2024. We'll also see some heavier precipitation develop across the West Coast with several inches of rain possible across California.
Extended Snowfall Outlook
According to the ECMWF weather model, We could be entering a more active weather pattern across the nation after the first few days of the month. Areas of snow (heavy at times) could develop across parts of the Western Central and Northeastern US. Stay tuned as we approach next weekend and the week after.
Climate Stories
"Revolutionary device pulls water from the air to save world's driest communities"
"A new device that extracts water from the air using solar power offers a potential solution for the world's driest regions, scientists say. This atmospheric water harvesting technology utilizes a super hygroscopic gel known for its exceptional ability to swell and trap salt. The prototype, equipped with desorption and condensation chambers, has shown remarkable efficiency in capturing clean water, even under weak sunlight. This innovation, spearheaded by researchers from China's Shanghai Jiao Tong University, promises to aid water-stressed countries, where over 2.2 billion people face severe water scarcity. With the United Nations reporting that water-related diseases claim 3.5 million lives annually, this technology could be crucial for regions with abundant sunshine but limited clean water."
See more from Study Finds HERE
"Sea of methane sealed beneath Arctic permafrost could trigger climate feedback loop if it escapes"
"A sea of migrating methane discovered below the permafrost in Svalbard may eventually escape its icy prison if the permafrost continues to thaw due to climate change. Deep beneath the permafrost that blankets a group of islands in the Arctic Ocean lurks a growing and migrating sea of methane, researchers have discovered. The thick permafrost, or ground that remains frozen for at least two years, forms a tight seal that has so far prevented millions of cubic feet of methane from wafting out — but there's no guarantee that the potent greenhouse gas won't eventually escape, according to a study published Dec. 13 in the journal Frontiers in Earth Science. "At present, the leakage from below permafrost is very low, but factors such as glacial retreat and permafrost thawing may 'lift the lid' on this in the future," lead author Thomas Birchall, a geologist at the University Center in Svalbard in Norway, said in a statement."
See more from Live Science HERE
"The surprising connection between eco-anxiety and loneliness"
"The climate crisis isn't just altering our physical environments. It could even be transforming our minds and how we connect to each other. Many people are experiencing escalating anxiety levels about the potential for extreme weather events and the safety of their homes, property, and livelihoods. Still more are numbed by general ennui about how the planet and our existence are being fundamentally altered. And evidence is growing that in addition to altering our environment, the climate crisis could be transforming our minds. "Climate change is inside us," said Clayton Aldern, a neuroscientist and author of the forthcoming "The Weight of Nature: How a Changing Climate Changes Our Brains," one of a number of recent books and studies that delve into how climate change affects our brains, our mental health, and the connections we make with each other."
See more from Yale Climate Connections HERE:
