The recession-is-coming drumbeat is getting louder.
A Bloomberg Economic model projection has a U.S. recession "effectively certain in the next 12 months." The Wall Street Journal's latest survey of economists reports the odds of recession over the next 12 months at 63%. Fitch, the credit rating service, expects the U.S. will enter "genuine recession territory" next year.
To be clear, these are forecasts. The "recession is coming" pronouncement has been prematurely declared several times already.
But unemployment is at a half-century low, household balance sheets are healthy and consumer spending is holding up. The quality of jobs for many workers has improved as employers hiked wages and benefits or workers landed better jobs. There's no recession in recent bank earnings.
Nevertheless, the risk of an economic downturn can't be easily dismissed with inflation stubbornly high and the Federal Reserve set on a path of aggressive interest rate hikes.
During the 2008-09 recession, I asked the market historian Peter Bernstein how he defined risk. "Risk means more things can happen than will happen," he replied. "But you have to make decisions. You'll be wrong sometimes. The goal is managing the risk when you are wrong."
The big risk for most people isn't the eruptions in the markets, or strong signs that the real estate boom is over. The risk that counts is losing your job during a recession even if it seems secure for now.
There's not much you can do to prevent getting laid off except continuing to do your job well (which you do anyway). There are steps you can take to prepare to pivot should the untoward happen, however. Among them are shoring up household finances and making sure your résumé and LinkedIn profile are up to date.
Most important is cultivating your network. Here's how veteran executive recruiter Marcia Ballinger in "Make the Jump" captures networking. (Her book is geared toward people wanting to shift into the nonprofit sector, but her insight applies to any job search.)
"Your biggest ally in finding a job," she writes, "is your network. People you already know — and the people they know, and those they know, and so on — have wisdom, ideas, referrals and perhaps job suggestions."
Your network is part of your community and it's worth nurturing even if you don't lose your job. Someone in your network might, and then you can offer them your wisdom and support — a wonderful way to give back.
Farrell is economics contributor to the Star Tribune, Minnesota Public Radio and American Public Media's "Marketplace."
