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Sunday Midday Rain/Snow Mix
A warm front will lift through the region on Sunday with a narrow band of rain and snow showers sliding northeast through the day. Total precipitation amounts could approach 0.25" in spots with a better chance of minor snow accumulations south and west of the Twin Cities.
Minor Snow Accumulations on Sunday
Here's NOAA's NDFD snowfall potential through the the weekend, which suggests minor accumulations south and west of the Twin Cities, where some 1" to 3" tallies can't be ruled out near the Minnesota River Valley.
Twin Cities April Summary So Far
Here's the Twin Cities weather summary through April so far. Note that temps are still running nearly +2.0F above average even with several days of recent cool weather. We're also running -0.18" below average in the precipitation department and nearly -1.5" below average in the snowfall department.
Sunday Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
Here's a closer look at our weather conditions for Minneapolis on Sunday, which shows dry and somewhat chilly weather to start the day. Areas of rain and snow will be possible by midday as temps approach the mid/upper 40s.
Sunday Meteograms
Here are the meteorgrams for Minneapolis on Sunday, which show temps warming slowly through the 40s through the day and possibly near 50F by late afternoon. Clouds will give way to a light rain/snow mix around midday. South to Southeast winds will gust close to 20mph through the afternoon hours.
Sunday Weather Outlook
The weather outlook for Sunday shows somewhat unsettled weather moving through the region during the day with light rain/snow potential. Temps will be running below average by nearly -10F to -15F with readings only warming into the 40s and 50s.
From Sunday Snow Chances to 70F on Monday?
Temps on Monday will be quite a bit warmer across the southern half of the state with readings warming to near 70F, including the Twin Cities. The northern half of the state will still be running nearly -5F to -10F below average with areas of rain/snow still possible.
Extended Temperature Outlook
Here's the extended temperature and weather outlook over the next 5 to 7 days in the Twin Cities. Highs on Sunday will still be nearly -10F to -15F below average for mid/late April, but we could pop up close to 70F on Monday and Tuesday, which would be nearly +5F above average. Areas of rain and possibly thunder will linger through midweek.
2021 Ice Out Dates So Far
According to the MN DNR, most MN Lakes are going ice out nearly 2 weeks earlier than normal this season. Thanks to warmer than normal temps and wetter than normal conditions, quite a few lakes have been going ice out. Leech Lake went ice out on April 9, while the average ice out is on April 28th. Lake Winnibigoshish went ice out on April 8th, while the average ice out is on April 26th. Lake Ver Milion went ice out on April 15th, while the average ice out is on April 20th. Mille Lacs Lake was deemed ice out as of April 7th, while the average ice out date is on April 25th. Upper & Lower Red Lake were ice out as of early April, while the average ice out is late April.
See more from the MN DNR HERE:
Average Ice Out Dates Across the State
Here's a look at the average ice out dates across the state. The orange markers across the southern part of the state indicate average ice out dates typically around the last week of March. We typically see average ice out across parts of central Minnesota and around the Twin Cities during the first couple of weeks of April. Folks across the northern third of the state typically see ice out closer to the start of May.
See more from the MN DNR HERE:
Spring Leaf Index
If you look close, so of your backyard trees and bushes have actually started to show signs of spring leaves emerging. According to the NPN, this is happening nearly 2 to 3 weeks earlier than normal across Minnesota and Wisconsin.
"How do you know when spring has begun? Is it the appearance of the first tiny leaves on the trees, or the first crocus plants peeping through the snow? The First Leaf and First Bloom Indices are synthetic measures of these early season events in plants, based on recent temperature conditions. These models allow us to track the progression of spring onset across the country. April 20, 2021 - Spring leaf out continues to spread north across the country. After arriving early in southern parts of Southwest and Southeast states, cold temperatures halted the progress of spring leaf out for several days across the northern part of the Southeast, Southern Great Plains, and mid-Atlantic. Spring leaf out is now arriving days to weeks early across the northern Great Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. Spring bloom has arrived in Southwest and Southeast states. Spring bloom is patchy, with much of Texas days to weeks late, while parts of Kansas, Tennessee, Missouri, Illinois and Indiana are days to weeks early."
Extended Temperature Outlook
Here's the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis over the next couple of weeks. Temps will be running a little cooler through the weekend, but temps will likely rebound into the 60s next week and into the 70s during the first few days of May.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temps for early May across the Southern and Southwestern part of the nation.
Aprils Are Suddenly Character-Building
By Paul Douglas
I'm trying to convince my (new) daughter-in-law, who lives in Washington DC, that Minnesota weather is nothing to be scared of. Without turning into Pinocchio with a Doppler. "Well, Minnesota's lake-worthy, cabin-happy summers more than make up for any challenging winters!" That, and an opportunity to upgrade your winter wardrobe!
Lately I've been smiling through clenched teeth. Whatever happened to April? 26"of snow fell in April, 2018 - so today's sloppy mix won't be nearly as controversial. A few inches of slop may accumulate over southwest Minnesota, but no need to sound the sirens.
The pattern is more erratic and volatile than ever. A March-like Sunday gives way to a shot at 70FMonday, in fact daytime highs most of this week will be at or above 60F. Average, imagine that.
T-storms prowl the state Monday and Tuesday, but the latter half of the week looks dry, with temperatures mellowing into the 70s for the first Saturday in May. Ah, May. As in, it MAY finally warm up for good. Keep the faith.
Extended Forecast
SUNDAY: Rain-snow mix, chilly. Winds: SE 10-15. High: 39.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy, chance of light rain. Winds: E 15-25. Low: 37.
MONDAY: Milder with T-storms (mainly north). Winds: SE 10-20. High: 68.
TUESDAY: Unsettled, passing T-shower. Winds: N 10-20. Wake-up: 46. High: 60.
WEDNESDAY: Plenty of sunshine, much nicer. Winds: NE 5-10. Wake-up: 41. High: 65.
THURSDAY: Mix of clouds and sun, windy. Winds: NW 15-25. Wake-up: 43. High: 56.
FRIDAY: More sunshine, less wind. Winds: SE 7-12. Wake-up: 36. High: 60.
SATURDAY: Some sun, gusty and mild. Winds: W 10-20. Wake-up: 55. High: 75.
This Day in Weather History
April 25th
1996: Heavy snow falls over northern Minnesota, including 10 inches of snow at Baudette. The International Falls Airport is forced to close for only the second time in history.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
April 25th
Average High: 63F (Record: 91F set in 1962)
Average Low: 42F (Record: 25F set in 1907)
Record Rainfall: 1.47" set in 1902
Record Snowfall: 3.2" set in 1950
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
April 24th
Sunrise: 6:10am
Sunset: 8:10pm
Hours of Daylight: ~14 hours & 00 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 51 seconds
Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 5 hours & 36 minutes
Moon Phase for April 25th at Midnight
0.9 Day Until Full "Pink" Moon
"10:32PM April 27th - The grass pink or wild ground phlox is one of the earliest widespread flowers of the spring. Other names for this month were the Full Sprouting Grass Moon, the Egg Moon, and — among some tribes on the east coast — the Full Fish Moon, when shad came upstream to spawn."
What's in the Night Sky?
"At nightfall – April, 25, 2021 – look eastward to view the bright waxing gibbous moon and the star Spica over the horizon. First look for the moon, and that nearby bright star will be Spica, the brightest star in the constellation Virgo the Maiden. Spica serves as a prime example of a 1st-magnitude star; in other words, it's one of the brightest stars in our sky. You should have no trouble picking it out, even in the glare of the waning gibbous moon. Spica is a blue-white gem of a star, and, for stars, color indicates the star's surface temperature. Spica's blue-white complexion reveals that its surface temperature is extremely high (39,860 degrees Fahrenheit, or 22,127 degrees Celsius). In contrast, our yellow-colored sun has a much cooler surface (only 9,980 degrees F, or 5,527 degrees C). The surface temperature of an orange star, such as Antares, is even cooler (7,300 degrees F, or 4,038 degrees C)."
National High Temps Sunday
The weather outlook on Sunday shows warm & dry weather building across the Plains with highs warming into the 70s and 80s, which will be nearly +10F to +15F above average for some. Meanwhile, folks in the Upper Midwest and the Western US will be running nearly -10F to -15F below average with areas of rain and snow.
Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook
According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, there is a highlighted risk of severe storms across parts of the Southern Plains on Tuesday. Stay tuned for more updates.
National Weather Outlook
The weather outlook through 7PM Monday shows a fairly potent storm system moving out of the Western US with areas of rain and snow falling through the Rockies. Meanwhile, the Southern US will turn warm and breezy ahead of the system.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook over the next 7 days shows areas of heavy rain across the midsection of the nation, where widespread showers and storms will develop, some of which will be strong to severe on Tuesday.
Extended Snowfall Outlook
Here's the extended snowfall outlook into next week, which shows areas of snow across parts of the northern tier of the nation. There will also be heavier snow potential across the high elevations in the Western US.
Climate Stories
"Renewables could displace fossil fuels to power the world by 2050, report claims"
"Solar and wind energy could replace fossil fuels entirely to become the world's power source by 2050, a new report has claimed. Published Friday, the report from thinktank Carbon Tracker also predicted that if wind and solar power continued on their current growth trajectory, they would push fossil fuels out of the electricity sector by the mid-2030s. Current technology gave the world the power to capture 6,700 Petawatt hours (PWh) of power from solar and wind energy, researchers claimed – more than 100 times the amount of energy consumed globally in 2019. Despite the potential for vast amounts of energy to be harvested, just 0.7 PWh of solar power and 1.4 PWh of wind energy was generated in 2019, according to the report. However, its authors were confident that continued falling costs were likely to drive exponential growth in the generation of solar and wind power. An annual growth rate of 15% would see solar and wind generating all of the world's electricity by the mid-2030s and providing all energy worldwide by 2050. The report noted that the cost of solar power had declined by an average of 18% per year since 2010, while wind power prices had fallen by an average of 9% every year in the same period."
"This supermoon has a twist – expect flooding, but a lunar cycle is masking effects of sea level rise"
"A "super full moon" is coming on April 27, 2021, and coastal cities like Miami know that means one thing: a heightened risk of tidal flooding. Exceptionally high tides are common when the moon is closest to the Earth, known as perigee, and when it's either full or new. In the case of what's informally known as a super full moon, it's both full and at perigee. But something else is going on with the way the moon orbits the Earth that people should be aware of. It's called the lunar nodal cycle, and it's presently hiding a looming risk that can't be ignored. Right now, we're in the phase of an 18.6-year lunar cycle that lessens the moon's influence on the oceans. The result can make it seem like the coastal flooding risk has leveled off, and that can make sea level rise less obvious."
See more from The Conversation HERE:
"Will a New GFS Weather Model Upgrade Close the Gap with The European Model?"
"Are you with Team GFS or Team ECMWF, the "European Model"? I hate to pick sides, but as a meteorologist I defer to the weather model that, consistently, is most accurate. Of course I'm rooting for the "American Model", the GFS or Global Forecast System, to win. But here's the thing: if you're sanding a table or building a deck you want to use the best tools at your disposal, right? So it goes with weather forecasting. Meteorologists examine scores of models, looking for consistency, continuity, and trends – ultimately choosing a blend of model solutions that has the highest probability of coming true. Believe it or not, we want to get the forecast right! ECMWF vs. GFS Accuracy Since 2007. The data is the data. Graphic courtesy of blog.weather.us and meteorologist Ryan Maue. Like most people I defer to what works, based on personal experience. And in recent years many meteorologists have reached the conclusion that I have over time: ECMWF, The European Model, is consistently more accurate. Not perfect, but stepping back and looking at the big picture…which prediction of future weather is better in most real-world scenarios? ECMWF wins most days. At the risk of oversimplification, there are many reasons why ECMWF is better. The European model is run by The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Reading, England. Unlike NOAA, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which runs dozens of models, ECMWF runs one global model at high resolution. All efforts and resources have been focused into perfecting this one weather simulation. There are other factors involved, including demonstrably better data assimilation (getting the most recent observations into the ECMWF model faster) and a steady pipeline of meteorological research (and better physics) being applied to improve the ECMWF model at a quicker pace. The result: ECMWF is arguably the best weather model on the planet."
See more from Aerisweather HERE: