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A Little More Snow Saturday
Here's the simulated radar from AM Saturday to AM Sunday. There could be a little more light snow falling during the day Saturday, but amounts will generally be less than 1" across the region. Unfortunately, winds will continue to remain strong with very cold temps and wind chills developing.
Snow Ends, Then COLD and Quiet
The storm system responsible for our snow on Friday will move east and will continue to spit out light snow through Saturday with gusty winds and Arctic temps. Much of the week ahead will be quiet, but cold. Very little snow is in the forecast.
An Arctic Plunge on the Way
Are you ready for winter? Take a look at the 850mb temp anomaly across the nation as we head through the next 7 to 10 days. This will be some of the coldest air of the season by far and it will also be some of the coldest air in the Midwest since February of last winter with daytime highs in the single digits and subzero overnight lows. Get ready!
COLD Mid January Temperatures
Temps in the Twin Cities over the next several days will see a significant temperature drop. Readings will be MUCH colder as we approach the weekend and into early next week. Daytime highs may only warm into the single digits with overnight lows in the sub-zero range, which will be some of the coldest air in 11 months.
Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI)
"Winter seasons have significant societal impacts across all sectors ranging from direct human health and mortality to commerce, transportation, and education. The question "How severe was this winter?" does not have a simple answer. At the very least, the severity of a winter is related to the intensity and persistence of cold weather, the amount of snow, and the amount and persistence of snow on the ground. The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) was developed to objectively quantify and describe the relative severity of the winter season."
It's probably no surprise, but most locations around the Midwest and Great Lakes have had a "Mild" winter so far. Again, we're still waiting for the other boot to drop, but being in an El Nino setup, a winter like last year is not really in the cards. The Midwest will likely see an overall warmer and less snowy winter.
"Mild" Winter So Far in for the Twin Cities
Here's a look at the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) for Minneapolis, MN so far this winter season. With a lack of cold temps and snow, it may be no surprise that we are currently sitting under a "Mild" winter rating so far.
Seasonal Snowfall So Far
The Twin Cities has only seen ~6" of snow this season, which is nearly -16.0" below normal snowfall, which is the 22nd least snowy starts to any season on record. With only ~12" of snow in Duluth, they are more than 2 feet below normal snowfall and good enough for the 19th least snowy starts to any season on record. Marquette, MI is nearly 56" below normal snowfall and currently sitting at the 4th least snowy start to any season on record.
Seasonal Snowfall Departure From Average
Looking around the region, no climate site has a surplus this season. The biggest deficits are around the Great Lakes, where we typically get lake effect snow, but with a lack of Arctic air, we haven't seen much in the way of heavy snow yet this season.
Twin Cities Average Snowfall
Depending on what 30-year average you look at, December is typically the 1st or 2nd snowiest month out of the year in the Twin Cities. If you look at the last 30 years 1993-2022, December averages 12.7" of snow and is the snowiest month of the year, followed by January with nearly 11" of snow.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Saturday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Saturday calls for areas of light snow through parts of the day. Temps will warm to around 10F with gusty NW winds, which will make it feel even colder through the day.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
Temperatures in the Twin Cities on Friday will start around 10F in the morning and will drop into the single digits through the afternoon. There could be periods of light snow, but amounts will be minimal through the day.
Hourly Feels Like Temps For Minneapolis on Saturday
Feels like temps through the day will be subzero and will be even colder by the evening with readings in the teens below zero.
Weather Outlook For Saturday
The weather outlook for Saturday will be nearly -10F to -20F below average for this time of the year.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis will be well below average for this time of the year with readings nearly -10F to -25F below average.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook for Minneapolis over the next 7 days shows well below average temps through early next week. We'll finally start to see some below average readings
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook, colder than average temperatures will linger through the Southeastern US. Meanwhile, warmer than average temps will develop in the Western US.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
The 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook shows more active weather across the Southern US once again with the northern tier of the nation quieter than average.
A Little Snow - A Lot Of Cold
By Paul Douglas
Mea culpa. Guilty as charged. And for the record, Your Honor, I blame El Nino. Predicting winter storms is the rough equivalent of forecasting what your 2-year old toddler will do next. Weather models are a rough guide to the future, but the atmosphere remains random and chaotic.
It turns out the forecasts earlier this week (of a couple inches) will probably be closer to the mark. What happened? Too much cold air pushing the storm track farther east. Maybe 1-3" inches of fluff for the metro, but plowable for southeastern Minnesota and much of Wisconsin. Eastern Wisconsin, Chicago and much of Michigan will see near-blizzard conditions.
Hey, we won't miss the cold! Next week could wind up being the coldest of the winter, with highs near 0F Sunday and Monday, but 30s return here by late January.
NFL playoff games should be interesting. -30F windchill tonight in Kansas City. 50mph gusts and snow in Buffalo Sunday.
Snow lovers are going on strike. Sorry to get your hopes up. Always a bridesmaid, never a bride.
Extended Forecast
SATURDAY: 1-3" snow, more south/east. Winds: NW 15-25. High 11.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Windy. Chance of flurries early. Cold! Winds: NW 15-30. Low -5.
SUNDAY: Bitter. Peaks of sun. Feels like -25F. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 1.
MONDAY: Sunny with a nice, arctic breeze. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: -10. High: 0.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny, stiff breeze. Winds: W 15-30. Wake-up: -6. High 5.
WEDNESDAY: Chance of a little light snow. Winds: SW 10-15. Wake-up: 3. High 20.
THURSDAY: Flurries taper, another cold shot. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 4. High 9.
FRIDAY: Still numb. Feels like -15F. Winds: NW 15-25. Wake-up: -3. High 5.
This Day in Weather History
January 13th
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
January 13th
Average High: 23F (Record: 48F set in 1980 & 1987)
Average Low: 9F (Record: -30F set in 1916)
Record Rainfall: 0.37" set in 1887
Record Snowfall: 6.0" set in 1967
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
January 13th
Sunrise: 7:48am
Sunset: 4:54pm
Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 06 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: 1 Minute & 38 Seconds
Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 20 minutes
Moon Phase for January 13th at Midnight
2.8 Days Since New Moon
National High Temps on Saturday
The weather outlook on Saturday looks very cold across much of the nation and especially in the Central / High Plains.
National Weather Outlook For Saturday
Areas of snow will continue across the Great Lakes with more snow in the high elevations out west.
National Weather Outlook
The National Weather outlook through Sunday shows heavy snow in the Great Lakes and in the Western US. Areas of heavy snow will develop in the Central US by the weekend.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook shows heavier precipitation moving through the Eastern US and the Western US over the next several days.
Extended Snowfall Outlook
According to the ECMWF weather model, heavy snow will be possible in the Great Lakes/Eastern US and also across the high elevations in the Western US. Stay tuned...
Climate Stories
"Wild Weather Ahead: How to Prep for 2024's Climate Shifts"
"Last year was the hottest on record. Here's how you can get ready for similarly sizzling temperatures and other extreme weather in 2024. We lived through the hottest year since records began more than a century ago, but looking back at 2023, it might not be defined in our memories by extreme heat. That's because it's unlikely to be the only hottest year that we experience. Our climate is changing, growing warmer due to the emissions from burning fossil fuels, and our weather is changing with it. Instead of being a freak outlier, extreme heat is something we'll need to be prepared to deal with on a much more regular basis, along with storms, floods and drought."
"5 Useful Apple Watch Apps For Keeping Tabs On The Weather"
"Keeping track of the weather is a necessity, especially if you plan on leaving the house or your work consists of being outside. There are ways to keep the weather and any updates that come your way close by, like looking at the radar on a weather service's website or simply viewing a weather widget on your iPhone. But are there ways to keep the weather even closer? The Apple Watch allows you to have many applications you have on your iPhone, and several weather app options are available within that list. When the weather changes or there is a special alert, you'll be notified quicker than you can pick up your iPhone. The iPhone and your Apple Watch will already come with Weather, Apple's default weather app."
"Climate Crisis Is Making Sugar and Sweets More Expensive, Experts Say"
"One of the biggest commodities in the world, sugar, is being impacted by the climate crisis. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), climate change has driven the cost of sugar globally to its highest levels since 2011. The planet is heating up, leading to extreme weather that affects foods like sugar, beer and coffee, reported The Guardian. An extreme drought in Thailand — the second largest sugar producer in the world after Brazil — has threatened sugarcane crops, as has severe dry weather in India, another of the top three sugar exporters. Concerns about lower production have driven up prices of sugar and its byproducts, like chocolate and other sweet treats. "You can say El Niño has a sweet tooth because it sort of eats or takes away much of the sugar in the world," Carlos Mera, head of agri commodities markets at Rabobank, a Dutch banking and financial services company, told CNBC. "Sugar prices have probably already been passed on [to consumers] but certainly for chocolate we should expect a big increase at retail level — and El Niño is certainly something to watch."
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