March Madness office pools are open for business so here's some free, unsolicited advice to help you make astute picks: Don't overthink it.
If you're torn on whether Team X has a chance to go all the way, the answer is yes. This is the year to go with your alma mater.
Rather than turn your brain to mush poring over RPI rankings, head-to-head matchups and Larry from accounting's data points, take a more sensible approach. Scribble team names on pieces of paper, hang them on a wall, crack open a few beers and throw darts.
Unlike a year ago when half the universe picked Kentucky to finish the job on an undefeated season, this tournament looks more wide open than Montana.
"It's a bizarre year," Michigan State coach Tom Izzo said. "It's got everybody screwed up, from writers to coaches to players to fans. The only thing I know is we're playing good basketball."
Is Izzo's team a legitimate contender to cut down the nets in Houston as "One Shining Moment" plays in the background? Absolutely.
And Kansas? Of course.
Villanova? Yep.
North Carolina? You betcha.
Oklahoma? Certainly.
Oregon? Check.
We could do this all day.
First-round TV schedule: Click here
"I think we're one of the top four teams in college basketball, I do believe that," North Carolina coach Roy Williams said. "If we get a No. 1 seed [they did], my guys will be happy about it. We'll have some brownies and strawberry shortcake and banana pudding."
Surf-and-turf dinner goes to the team that emerges from this jumbled logjam of contenders.
23 losses by No. 1 seeds
This season represented a 180-degree shift from last year, when Kentucky hogged the spotlight as King of Hoops Hill. Six different teams occupied the No. 1 ranking for at least one week. Every team ranked in the top 10 has lost at least four games. By comparison, only two teams in the top 10 at this time last season had lost four or more games.
The committee's top four seeds — Kansas, North Carolina, Virginia and Oregon — have 23 combined losses, the most ever for a group of No. 1 seeds, according to the CBS selection show. CBS also noted that 20 teams seeded No. 1 in their conference tournaments lost.
Not Kansas, which earned the No. 1 overall seed after winning the Big 12 regular-season title and tournament title.
Oregon accomplished the same feat in the Pac-12 for the first time ever. The Ducks rank second nationally in RPI, third in strength of schedule.
"I wouldn't want to play them, I know that," Utah coach Larry Krystkowiak said after his team lost to Oregon by 31 points in the Pac-12 championship game.
That same statement can be applied to many teams. In the absence of one or two dominant teams, the beauty of this field lies in its balance at the top — and middle. If, say, West Virginia or Xavier gets hot and wins the whole thing, nobody can say, "Wow, that came out of nowhere."
"There are just a lot of really good teams and a lot of teams that are the same," Izzo said. "Do I think we're good enough to be one of the teams considered? One hundred percent. Do I feel comfortable? Zero percent. I just don't."
Imagine his reaction then when his star, Denzel Valentine, took a reporter's bait when asked recently if he would guarantee a national championship.
"Maybe I can say that now," Valentine told the Detroit News. "National championship guarantee, right now. We have the team to do it. The only thing that is gonna stop us is us."
Bulletin board material
If the Spartans needed any extra motivation, the selection committee offered it on a silver platter by handing them a No. 2 seed, not a top seed as most expected. Think Izzo won't have a field day with that snub in the privacy of his own locker room?
The tournament often renders seeds irrelevant by the end of the first weekend of upsets anyway. Momentum seems just as important to success, though North Carolina's Williams recalled a theory that legendary Tar Heels coach Dean Smith always espoused.
"Coach Smith said a long time ago you build your momentum once you get into the tournament," Williams said.
Even with a crowded field, somebody must carry the torch as pre-tournament favorite, which logically belongs to Kansas by virtue of its No. 1 overall seed.
The Jayhawks have not lost since Jan. 25, a streak of 14 consecutive wins.
"If our guys can keep playing loose and free but still with a purpose," KU coach Bill Self said, "I would think that that would give us a much better chance to be successful."
Makes sense. Many other teams probably feel the same way.
Office pools undoubtedly will reflect that sense of this being anyone's game.
Here's an idea: Draw a name out of hat this year. Who knows, you might end up looking smart and with a little extra cash in your pocket.
