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Active Weather Week Ahead
A potent storm system is on the way for the week ahead with a wide array of rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow across the Midwest. The heaviest snows will be north and west of the Twin Cities with a messy mix of wintry precipitation possible for the metro. This will be a long duration event, the messiest day will be Tuesday into AM Wednesday with snow and accumulations likely later in the week. Blizzard conditions will be possible across the Dakotas with blowing snow possible across central and northern Minnesota.
Waterlogged Storm System
The precipitation outlook through the week ahead will be quite impressive. Much of the liquid precipitation that falls across the Central US will be connected to the Gulf of Mexico. Widespread 0.50" to 1.00" (plus) amounts will be possible through the week ahead. The heaviest rains will be found across the Southern US, where strong to severe thunderstorms will be found. There could be some 2" to 4" tallies possible across the the Gulf Coast States, where severe storms will be possible.
Winter Weather Headlines
Widespread winter weather headlines have been posted from the Front Range of the Rockies to Northeastern Minnesota. This will be a widespread event with widespread impacts. Heavy snow and blizzard conditions will be possible across the Dakotas.
Heavy Snow Potential
Heavy snow will fall front parts of Nebraska to the Dakotas and into parts of Minnesota. Much of the snow will be plowable and potentially crippling with gusty winds and blizzard potential.
Icing Potential
There will be periods of icing prior to and during the transition from rain to snow, the heaviest of which will be near the Minnesota, Iowa and South Dakota border. Some of the icing could approach 0.25" or more.
Strongest Wind Gusts Through Saturday
The strongest wind gusts across the region could be up to 40mph to 50mph, which could cause blizzard conditions.
Winter Storm Severity Index Through Midday Wed.
According to NOAA's WPC, the worst of the weather impacts will be across the Dakotas through midday Wednesday. However, there will still be significant impacts across Central MN through midweek.
Severe Threat Down South
This will be a dynamic storm system with isolated strong to severe storms across the Plains Monday. According to NOAA's SPC, there is a Marginal Risk or severe storms across the Plains, which produce large hail and gusty winds. However, the threat of strong to severe winds and tornadoes increases on Tuesday across the Lower Mississippi Valley as NOAA's SPC has issued an Enhanced risk of severe storms.
Getting Colder As We Approach Christmas
The temperature trend over the next several days will be warmer than average as the storm system passes by. The extended temperature outlook show much colder weather in place as we approach Christmas.
Extended Temperature Outlook
The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis, which shows warm than average temps in place through the the of the week and then a much colder air mass moves in by the weekend and into next week.
Monday Weather Outlook
Monday will be fairly quiet with the best chance of precipitation moving in Tuesday. There will be a wintry mix across the Southwestern part of the state before the heaviest batch moves in Tuesday into AM Wednesday. Temperatures will play a big part in what type of precipitation falls across the region.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Monday
Here's the weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Monday, December 12th, which looks fairly quiet prior to the big storm system. Temps will be warmer than average for mid December with readings warming into the mid 30s.
Weather Outlook on Monday
Temps across the region on Monday will warm into the low/mid 30s, which will be nearly 5F to 10F above average for this time of the year.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
It'll be a mild Monday with temp running above average for much of the day. Temps in the morning will be around 30F with highs approaching the mid 30s in the afternoon under cloudy skies. Southeasterly winds will pick up through the day with gusts approaching 25mph through the day.
Hourly Feels Like Temps
Feels like temps will be in the 20s through much of the day, but it wont be bitterly cold just yet. Wait for next week!
Precipitation Departure From Average Since Jan. 1st
The Twin Cities is nearly nearly -9.60" below average for the year, which is the 18th driest start to any year on record (through December 11th). Meanwhile, International Fall, MN is still nearly 9.36"above average, which is still the 2nd wettest start to any year on record there.
Drought Update
It has been a dry year for many across central and southern MN. Extreme drought continues across parts of the Twin Cities to the Minnesota River Valley where rainfall deficits have been the greatest. It would be nice to get a good soaking prior to heading into winter, but it doesn't appear that anything substantial is on the way anytime soon.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook through next week shows fairly widespread heavy precipitation amounts through the week ahead. There will be some 0.50" to 1.00" tallies, some of which will fall in the form of heavy wintry precipitation across the region.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended temperature outlook through the week ahead will be milder than average with highs approaching the mid the upper 30s through midweek.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days will be busier than average with precipitation expected almost every day through the next several days. It'll get colder late week and into the weekend ahead.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
Here's the ECMWF extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis over the next several days shows warmer than average temps through the week ahead until the cold air slams in.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows cooler than average temps across much of the Central US as we approach the Holiday.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather in place across the northern tier of the nation.
Winter Storm Unfolds This Week. Most Mix For Metro
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.
Believe it or not, the winter solstice is only a week and half away. The next 3 weeks will be the darkest 3 weeks for us in the northern hemisphere as the sun approaches its lowest angle on the horizon next Wednesday. I'm happy to report that daylight hours start getting longer on the 22nd!
Our highly advertised storm system approaches the Upper Midwest later tonight. Winter weather headlines have been posted from the Front Range of the Rockies to northeastern Minnesota. 1 to 2 feet of snow will be possible in the Black Hills with widespread blizzard conditions across the Dakotas. This behemoth storm will also be responsible for severe weather across the Southern US as well.
The Central US will be inundated with disruptive weather that will last several days.
The metro will be on the warm side of the storm, where a mix of rain, sleet and snow will be possible before transitioning to all snow later this week. The heaviest snows will be found north and west of the metro, where travel will be difficult. Buckle up, it'll be an interesting week
Extended Forecast
MONDAY: Breezy. Increasing clouds. Winds: SE 10-20. High: 34.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and quiet. Winds: ESE 15-30. Low: 30.
TUESDAY: Windy. Metro mix. Heavy snow N & W. Winds: SE 15-30. High: 37.
WEDNESDAY: Metro mix. Blowing snow N & W. Winds: ESE 10-15. Wake-up: 34. High: 38.
THURSDAY: Mix turns to shovelable snow. Winds: NNW 10-15. Wake-up: 30. High: 35.
FRIDAY: Snow and blowing snow. Winds: WNW15-25. Wake-up: 24. High: 29.
SATURDAY: Lingering light snow. Breezy. Winds: W 10-20. Wake-up: 18. High: 22.
SUNDAY: Lingering clouds and flurries. Colder. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 10. High: 18.
This Day in Weather History
December 12th
2004: A strong cold front pushes through Minnesota during the early morning hours. By dawn, winds turn to the northwest and increase to 25 to 40 MPH with gusts as high as 70 MPH. The windiest part of the day was from mid morning through mid afternoon when many locations suffered sustained winds in the 30 to 45 MPH range. The highest wind gusts recorded in southern Minnesota during this time included 71 MPH in Welch and 62 MPH near Albert Lea, St. James, Winthrop and Owatonna. Other notable wind gusts included 59 MPH at New Ulm, 58 MPH in Mankato, 55 MPH in St. Cloud and Morris, 54 MPH at Redwood Falls, and 52 MPH at the Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport. Scattered trees were downed and a few buildings received minor roof damage across the region.
1939: A December gale along the North Shore leads to winds clocked at 48 mph at Duluth.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
December 12th
Average High: 30F (Record: 53F set in 1883 & 1968)
Average Low: 16F (Record: -15F set in 1879)
Record Rainfall: 0.61" set in 1886
Record Snowfall: 4.6" set in 1941
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
December 12th
Sunrise: 7:41am
Sunset: 4:31pm
Hours of Daylight: ~8 hours & 50 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 50 seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 6 hour & 46 minutes
Moon Phase for December 12th at Midnight
3.1 Days Before Last Quarter
National High Temps on Monday
The weather outlook on Monday shows cooler than average temps across the Western US as our next storm system moves in.
National Weather Outlook Monday
The weather outlook for Monday shows active weather in place across the Central US with wintry precipitation and and snow across the Western US.
National Weather Outlook
The main concern will be the major storm system across the Central US with widespread precipitation from the Gulf to the Canadian border. Severe storms will be possible across the Southern US with heavy snow and blizzard potential across the High Plains.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavy precipitation across the much of the Central US.
Snowfall Potential
According to the ECMWF (European model), areas of heavy snowfall will be found in the Western US, especially in the high elevations. There could also be plowable snow across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes through mid month. Stay tuned...
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