Even after the Packers' ugly loss to the Broncos on Sunday in Denver, betting lines for Sunday's Vikings-Packers game at Lambeau Field opened with the home team favored by a point. The line moved on Monday after the Vikings won as seven-point underdogs over the 5-1 49ers.
Currently, the Vikings are favored by 1½ points over the Packers on Sunday. If the line holds until kickoff, it would be just the fourth time the Vikings entered Lambeau Field as favorites since the 1992 season opener, when Dennis Green beat Mike Holmgren in their first games as NFL coaches and Don Majkowski started at quarterback for the Packers with a young passer named Brett Favre on the bench.
These are strange times in the rivalry Vikings fans care about most, as the 2-4 Packers experience life without the thing that's given them the surest advantage over the past 30 years: a Hall of Fame quarterback. They're also fascinating times for a Vikings team that no one seems quite able to figure out.
After beginning the season with three losses and a minus-7 turnover margin, the Vikings are a game away from .500, having won for the third time in four games with their upset of the 49ers on Monday night. They currently sit in the NFC's final wild-card spot, thanks to a 3-2 NFC record that has them ahead of four other 3-4 teams. They have won their first two games without Justin Jefferson, thanks in large part to the players who lead the NFL in sacks (Danielle Hunter) and the NFC in passing yards (Kirk Cousins).
The fact both players are less than five months from free agency has made them frequent subjects of trade speculation leading up to Tuesday's deadline. Before the Vikings worked out a deal for the 2023 season to end Hunter's hold-in during training camp, it appeared he could be traded, though the Vikings aren't believed to be actively shopping him now.
Cousins' no-trade clause makes it especially far-fetched he'd be dealt this season, and veterans with expiring contracts such as K.J. Osborn or Jordan Hicks might be more valuable as current contributors than as trade chips. Guards such as Ezra Cleveland or Dalton Risner could be candidates, but the Vikings also seem to enjoy their depth on the line. Given the Vikings' playoff chances, a favorable second-half schedule and the Wilfs' disposition toward remaining competitive, it's difficult to foresee a major sell-off between now and Tuesday. If anything, the Vikings could look to add a young player who could help them now and in the future, as they did with T.J. Hockenson before last year's deadline.
If the Vikings were to part with draft picks in a trade this year, though, it would absorb some of the $8 million in cap space they're currently able to roll into next year, and further leverage a 2024 offseason where the stakes will already be high.
Though the Vikings hadn't ruled out bringing Cousins back on a new deal after this season, re-signing the 35-year-old won't be cheap, especially given his numbers through seven games. The team thought seriously about moving up to draft a quarterback in April and has scouted USC's Caleb Williams and North Carolina's Drake Maye in recent weeks; a move up for one of the passers could be a real possibility next spring.
But if the Vikings win enough to make the playoffs, they'll pick no higher than 19th in a draft where Williams and Maye could go first and second (and the Bears, their division rival, currently have two of the top three picks). Dealing a high pick before the trade deadline, like they did last year, would mean the Vikings have even fewer ways to move up in the draft other than parting with several future first-rounders to get there. By that point in this scenario, General Manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and head coach Kevin O'Connell would be headed into their third seasons coming off back-to-back playoff trips. That could buy them enough goodwill to remake the core of the roster around a young quarterback — or it could keep the franchise in win-now mode, especially if it finds it difficult to part with the stability Cousins provides.
Hunter, too, is a fascinating case. He has 54½ sacks in his last 63 games, despite playing only six games in 2020-21 because of injuries and shifting to a role in 2022 that seemed ill-suited for him. He turns 29 on Sunday and is two sacks away from unlocking incentives in his contract that start with $1 million at 11 sacks and could top out with $3 million for 14 sacks this year. Agreeing with Hunter on a long-discussed deal might be difficult, especially when the Vikings need to pay Justin Jefferson and Christian Darrisaw. The Vikings also haven't seemed sentimental about keeping players into their 30s under Adofo-Mensah, but they might struggle to find an edge rusher of Hunter's caliber, especially if they're allocating draft picks toward a quarterback.
The Vikings have won 16 of their first 24 games under what Adofo-Mensah has called a "competitive rebuild," with one NFC North title to their credit and the chance for another trip to the playoffs. They didn't let a surprising 13-4 season keep them from offloading veteran players after 2022, and a run in the second half of 2023 might not keep them from doing it, either. But with a premium talent like Hunter, or a solid player at a premium position like quarterback, it will be fascinating to see if they arrive at the same conclusion.
They've already given themselves reasons to try their hand in a mediocre NFC, especially with victories that have diminished their chances of landing a top five draft pick. As they head into Lambeau Field as underdogs-turned-favorites, it seems the next six months could take them down any number of paths.
