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MUCH Colder Weather Ahead
Temperatures on Tuesday were nearly +20F above average across the region prior to a cold front sweeping through during the evening with scattered showers and storms developing along it. The 850mb temperature anomaly shows much cooler air working into the region through the rest of the week and into early next week, where temps will be running well below average with frosty overnight lows.
Extended Temperature Outlook
Here's the extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis through next week, which shows very chilly high and low temperatures in place as we slide through mid month. Note that highs may only warm into the 40s and 50s, which will be nearly -10F to -15F below average at times. We'll also have a chance of several frosty overnight across the metro and possibly into the suburban core. Note that we have not yet had an official freeze at the MSP Airport. The coldest low temperature recorded was 34F on October 8th.
Rain Mixed With Snow Up North?
Here's the simulated radar from 7am Wednesday to 7am Thursday, which shows lingering shower and possibly a few claps of thunder across parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Interestingly, as temperature continue to drop, there could be enough chilly air up north to support scattered snow showers late Wednesday into AM Thursday.
Slushy Snow Up North?
Note that any snow that falls up north late Wednesday into AM Thursday will melt on contact, but there could be some brief slushy coatings in a few spots across the northeastern part of the state.
Fall Color Update
Here's the fall color update for Minnesota & Wisconsin. Thanks to recent frost overnight lows and dwindling daylight - peak color is coming fast to a backyard near you. Note that peak color is already being reported across parts of northern Minnesota and Wisconsin with near peak color in many other locations. Get out there and enjoy it quick before it's too late!
See more from the MN DNR HERE & Travel Wisconsin HERE:
Average Fall Color
The MN DNR has put together a nice graphic that shows typical dates for peak fall color. The northern par of the state starts to peak during the 2nd half of September into early October. Meanwhile, folks in the central part of the state and into the metro typically don't see peak color until the end of September into the middle part of October. It won't be long now - enjoy!
What Causes Fall Colors?
The chemicals - Four main groups of biochemicals are responsible for the various yellows, oranges, reds and browns that we see in the fall: Chlorophyll, Carotenoids, Anthocyanins, Tannins. Each has its own color and chemistry. As the amount of these chemicals vary, they will cause subtle variations in color from one leaf to the next, or even from tree to tree.
See more from the MN DNR HERE:
How Does Weather Affect Fall Color?
Waves of Cooler Air With Minimal Precipitation
The weather outlook from AM Wednesday to AM Monday shows lingering rain/snow chances across the Arrowhead, northern Wisconsin and into the Great Lakes Region. Precipitation amounts will be minimal, but it will make for some fairly unpleasant weather at times over the next few days there.
Severe Drought Continues in the Metro
According to the US Drought Monitor (updated October 4th) there is now a sliver of Extreme drought from the Twin Cities to Southwestern MN. This is an area that is well below average precipitation for the year.
Coldest Low Temps at MSP So Far This Fall
Here are the coldest morning low temperatures we've experienced so far this fall (Since September 1st). Note that we've only had a few lows in the 30s with the coldest morning being 34F on October 8th.
Average First Frost For MSP
Here's the 30 year average for the first frost in Minneapolis, which lands on October 13th. Last year (2021) the first frost was on October 23rd. If you look at the full MSP record, which dates back to 1873, the latest frost was November 18th back in 2016, while the earliest frost was September 3rd back in 1974.
First Measurable Snow at MSP
Here's the average first measurable snowfall (0.01") at MSP over the last 30 years, which lands on November 6th. Last year, MSP had its first measurable snow on November 13th. The last was on December 3rd back in 1928, while the earliest was September 24th in 1985.
Weather Outlook on Wednesday
Temperatures on Wednesday will be quite a bit cooler than it was on Tuesday. Readings will will be at or slightly below average for a change with passing showers and perhaps even a few snow showers up north late in the day.
Weather Outlook Wednesday
The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Wednesday shows temps warming to near 60F, which is right where we should be for this time of the year. There will also be a few scattered showers passing by during the 2nd half of the day with breezy west-northwesterly winds.
Meteograms for Minneapolis
The hourly forecast for Minneapolis on Wednesday shows temps starting around 50F in the morning and warming to near 60F by the afternoon. Skies will generally be sunny in the morning but clouds will quickly fill in during the day with scattered shower possible during the 2nd half of the day. West-northwesterly winds will also be quite strong, gusting to near 30mph at times.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis over the next several days shows temps warming to near 60F on Wednesday, which will be nearly 20F cooler than it was on Tuesday. However, high temps on Wednesday will actually be close to average for this time of the year. Enjoy it, because we have waves of cooler air that will be settling in over the next several days with highs that will only warm into the 40s & 50s, nearly -5F to -15F below average for a change.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows a string of much colder air in place with highs consistently only warming into the 40s and 50s. Also note that overnight lows will dip into the 30s with widespread frost likely on many occasions outside the suburban core. Unfortunately, the extended forecast keeps us mainly dry, but it will definitely feel more like November over the coming days, so find that extra layer and bundle up!
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows cooler than average temps across the Eastern US, while warmer than average temps will be found in the Western half of the nation from October 19th - 25th.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows dry weather holding on across the Central US, while more unsettled weather continues in the Western US.
The Extended Outlook Calls For Cold Fronts
By Paul Douglas
Predicting the future with a modicum of accuracy and reliability is not for the faint of heart. An anonymous TV anchorman once scolded me for a blown forecast. Off the air I told him the truth: you can dress a monkey in a sport coat to tell people what already happened. Try predicting the news - or sports scores! Then we'll be on a level playing field. He ignored me but that's okay.
The next 6 months will bring cold fronts of various sizes and intensities. Yesterday's summer mirage gives way to wind-whipped showers and sprinkles today and Thursday. Far northern Minnesota may see a coating of slush by Sunday, but the metro remains flake-free until further notice. No more 80s, but I suspect we'll pick up more 60s, maybe a 70 or two.
According to NOAA, Hurricane Ian was the 15th billion-dollar disaster of 2022. Modeling firm RMS projects damage between $53 billion and $74 billion. The personal loss is incalculable.
Update: I've retired my shorts for at least 6months. With luck I'll still fit in them come '23.
Extended Forecast
WEDNESDAY: Cool, wind-whipped showers. Winds: NW 15-25. High: 58.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy, slight chance of showers early. Winds: WNW 10. Low: 42.
THURSDAY: Raw with showers, sprinkles. Winds: NW 15-25. High: 48.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy and brisk. Winds: W 10-20. Wake-up: 37. High: 51.
SATURDAY: Scrappy clouds, PM shower. Winds: NW 15-25 Wake-up: 36. High: 49.
SUNDAY: Cloud-cluttered. Stray shower. Winds: NW 15-25. Wake-up: 39. High: 50.
MONDAY: Partly sunny and chilly. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 34. High: 47.
TUESDAY: Blue sky, less wind. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 31. High: 46.
This Day in Weather History
October 12th
1969: Snow accumulates in several locations. Minneapolis receives 2 inches, while St. Cloud records 3.6 inches, Redwood Falls gets 1.7 inches, and Springfield records 1.5 inches.
1918: Dry fall weather sets the stage for dangerous fires. Several fires roar through large areas of Carlton and St. Louis Counties. The towns of Cloquet, Moose Lake and Brookston are the hardest hit. The Carlton County Vidette calls it a 'Hurricane of burning leaves and smoke'. At least 453 fatalities are reported, and possibly as many as 1,000 occurred. Over 11,000 people would be left homeless.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
October 12th
Average High: 60F (Record: 87F set in 1975)
Average Low: 43F (Record: 23F set in 1917)
Record Rainfall: 1.43" set in 1997
Record Snowfall: 2.5" set in 2009
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
October 12th
Sunrise: 7:24am
Sunset: 6:33pm
Hours of Daylight: ~11 hours & 08 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 3 minutes & 3 seconds
Daylight LOST since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 4 hour & 31 minutes
Moon Phase for October 12th at Midnight
3.4 Days After Full "Hunter's Moon"
"3:55 p.m. CDT - With the leaves falling and the deer fattened, it's now time to hunt. Since the fields have been reaped, hunters can ride over the stubble, and can more easily see the fox and other animals."
National High Temps Wednesday
The weather outlook on Wednesday shows well above average temperatures in place across the Central and Southern US with highs warming into the 90s for Dallas and Houston. Folks in the Pacific Northwest will also be running well above average with dry/sunny skies.
National Weather Outlook Wednesday
A cold front will continue to drift south with scattered showers and storms possible along and east of the Mississippi River Valley. Some of the storms could be strong to severe, but the threat appears to be pretty isolated. Interestingly, we're seeing some of our first chance of rain mixed with snow across the western Great Lakes Region. Most of the snow will likely melt on contact, but there could be some slushy coatings closer to the international border.
National Weather Outlook
The weather outlook through Thursday shows scattered showers and storms moving east along the cold front through the Eastern US. Some of the storms could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall. Meanwhile, colder air will settle in across the Midwest/Great Lakes with areas of rain/snow showers possible.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavy rain will be possible across the eastern half of the nation and especially in the Northeast. Through could also be heavier pockets of rain throughout parts of the southern and southwestern US.
Climate Stories
"How climate change is shifting the water cycle"
"What is the water cycle? Put simply, the water cycle — also known as the hydrological cycle — is the process by which water moves through the Earth's land, seas and atmosphere. Water in its three natural phases, be it gas, liquid or solid, forms part of the natural cycle that continuously refreshes the supply of water that we, and every other living thing, need to survive. Of the world's finite supply of water, around 97% is salty. The remaining 3% is fresh water which we use for things like drinking, bathing or irrigating crops. Most of that, however, is out of reach, locked away in the ice or deep underground in aquifers. Only around 1% of the world's total water supply is readily available to sustain all life on Earth."
"Blowhole wave energy could soon be world's cheapest clean power"
"The UniWave sea platform is an artificial blowhole that harvests energy from ocean waves. Independent analysts now predict it'll create some of the cheapest renewable energy on the market – and some of the most reliable and predictable, as well. We first encountered Wave Swell Energy (WSE) and the UniWave back in early 2021. This curious, half-sunken-looking concrete structure is designed to efficiently replicate the shape of a natural blowhole – a rock formation that channels waves in at the bottom and features a hole further up the top. As the waves move into the channel, they push out the ambient air through the hole – sometimes causing water to come spouting out as well."
"Hurricane Ian's exceptional death toll, explained"
"Hurricane Ian is now the deadliest hurricane in the continental United States since Hurricane Katrina in 2005. It made landfall on September 28 along Florida's gulf coast at Category 4 strength, with sustained winds of 155 mph driving a storm surge as high as 18 feet, flinging boats and sweeping homes off foundations. As of Friday morning, officials report that at least 101 people are dead from the storm, 89 of them in Florida — 45 in Lee County, which includes Fort Myers and Cape Coral. More than 60 percent of the deaths were due to drowning. "That's something I've never seen in my 38 years in public safety in Lee County," said Cecil Pendergrass, Lee County Commission chair, during an October 2 press conference."
