Paul Douglas On Weather
See more of the story

Minimal Snow Depth

We've had minimal snowfall across the region this season and thanks to warmer than average temperatures at points during November and into the early part of December, any snow that we've had has pretty much melted. At this time last year, there was 5" of snow on the ground in the Twin Cities.

Snowfall So Far This Season

It has been a pretty slow start to the snow season across the Midwest. Could this be a sign of El Nino? Perhaps. The storm track in an El Nino season is typically draped across the Southern US, while milder temperatures reside across the Midwest, both of which have been observed over the last several weeks. There are a lot of negative seasonal snow numbers across the region with the biggest deficits showing up in Duluth, MN (16th least snowy start to any season on record) and also in Marquette, which is nearly -24" below average (5th least snowy start to any season on record).

Snowfall Departure From Average This Season

Our average snowfall in the Twin Cities through the months of October and November is typically around 6" to 7". Note that the Twin Cities has only had 3.2" so far this season (since July 1st), which is nearly -5" below average. Duluth has only had 3.0" of snow this season, which is nearly -15" below average and the 16th least snowy start to any season on record.

Twin Cities Average Snowfall

The 30-year average from 1993 to 2022 suggests that we typically see around 5.5" of snow during the month of November. The snowiest month tends to be in December with more than a foot falling. The 2nd snowiest month tends to be January with nearly 11" falling in the metro.

Weather Outlook Through Next Monday

Here's the weather outlook through next Monday, which shows slightly more active weather across the Midwest, but still minimal snowfall potential across the state. A weak clipper will dive through the region late Monday and early Tuesday with a light rain/snow mix.

Snowfall Potential Through Next Monday

The snowfall outlook Through Tuesday shows minimal snowfall potential. There could be a minor coating across the far southern part of the state, but most locations will stay snow free for now.

Drought Update

Heavy rains during the month of September have helped the drought situation quite a bit across the state. With that being said, nearly 18% of the state is still in a severe drought, which has improved from 39% nearly 3 months ago.

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Monday

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Monday, December 4th will be warm and dry with highs topping out in the upper 30s, which will be nearly +5F above average for this time of the year.

Meteograms For Minneapolis

Temperatures in the Twin Cities will start in the upper 20d in the morning and will warm into the upper 30s by the afternoon under mostly cloudy skies later in the day. There could be a flurry later in the, but the threat remains low. Southerly winds will be around 10mph to 15mph.

Weather Outlook For Monday

The weather outlook for Monday will warm into the 30s across the much of the state, which will be nearly +5F to +10F above average for this time of the year. Areas of light snow will possible across the southern part of the state late in the day, but amounts will be minimal.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis will be warmer than average with readings warming into the mid/upper 30s and into the 40s later next week. The first full week of December will be nearly +5F to nearly +20F above average for the beginning of December. The warmest day will be Thursday when highs approach 50F, which is very rare for November.

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook for Minneapolis through the first full week of December looks very mild with temperatures warming into the 30s and 40s. There could be a little light rain/snow on Monday, but much of the week ahead will be dry. Incredibly, highs could approach 50F by Thursday. Note that in 139 years of record keeping, the MSP Airport has only hit 50F or warmer in the month of December 84 times. This too is a very rare occurrence, happening less than 2% of December days.

The Extended Outlook Calls For Warmer Temps

According to NOAA's National Blend of Models, the extended forecast looks very warm through the first part of December. With a lack of snow on the ground, the sun's energy will go into warming the atmosphere, which will be quite efficient this week. With a warmer than average temperature spell moving in, temperatures could warm into the 40s and possibly close to 50F at points over the next 5-10 days. Enjoy! We're still waiting for the other boot to drop, which it will at some point. Don't let your guard down.

Weather Outlook

The national weather outlook through next weekend looks a little more unsettled across the Central and Eastern US late next week. Areas of storms, heavy rain and snow could be possible between now and then. There is still a lot of uncertainty, but late next week could be more interesting across the Nation... Stay tuned.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temperatures continuing across much of the nation and especially in the Midwest.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

The 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook shows more active weather across the Western US.

Snow Drought Continues Until Further Notice
By Paul Douglas

Pro-tip: if you're going snowmobiling anytime soon borrow a friend's sled. A friend you don't like very much. It's brown up in the Brainerd Lakes area, where we've been walking around in sweatshirts and sneakers. Boots and gloves optional. You may be from Minnesota if you've ever uttered "Hey it's in the 30s! Doesn't feel so bad."

30s are OK. 40s in December are a hoot-worthy epiphany. We should see 40s almost every day this week, with an outside shot at 50F Thursday. That's 10-20F warmer than average, statewide. Cooler air (mostly 30s) returns by mid-December, but arctic air? Not so much.

A clipper may kick up a few flakes tonight. Next weekend's snowy opportunities have evaporated with a storm tracking south of Minnesota once again. Get used to it. It may become a habit much of December.

I see little snow through Christmas Day, but the ECMWF Extended Ensemble hints at a much snowier pattern setting up in January. Low confidence this far out, but snow lovers shouldn't give up on a few big dumpings.

Extended Forecast

MONDAY: Clouds, flakes tonight Winds: S 8-13. High: 40.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Light snow early. Winds: NNW 5. Low: 29.

TUESDAY: Becoming partly sunny. Winds: NW 10-15. High 39.

WEDNESDAY: Some sun, milder than average. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 26. High 44.

THURSDAY: SBlue sky, mildest day of the week. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 30. High 49.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy, cooler wind. Winds: W 15-30. Wake-up: 35. High 44.

SATURDAY: Cool sunshine. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 29. High 37.

SUNDAY: Chilled sun, storm stays south again. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 23. High 33.

This Day in Weather History

December 4th

1886: Minneapolis hits a record-setting 15 degrees below zero.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

December 4th

Average High: 33F (Record: 57F set in 2017)

Average Low: 19F (Record: -15F set in 1886)

Record Rainfall: 0.58" set in 1877

Record Snowfall: 4.2" set in 1947

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

December 4th

Sunrise: 7:33am

Sunset: 4:32pm

Hours of Daylight: ~8 hours & 58 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: 1 Minutes & 21 Seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 6 Hour & 49 Minutes

Moon Phase for December 4th at Midnight

1.0 Day After Last Quarter Moon

National High Temps on Monday

The weather outlook on Monday will generally be warmer than average across much of the nation, especially in the Western US, where readings could be nearly +10F to +15F above average.

National Weather Outlook For Monday

The National Weather Outlook on Monday looks a little unsettled across the northern tier of the nation with areas of rain and snow possible.

National Weather Outlook

The National Weather outlook through Tuesday keeps unsettled weather in place across the northern tier of the nation. Some of the heaviest precipitation will be found across the Pacific Northwest with areas of heavy rain along the coast.

Extended Precipitation Outlook

The extended precipitation outlook shows heavier precipitation across the Eastern US. The heaviest precipitation will be found in the Northwestern US with several inches of rain and flooding in the coastal communities with high elevation snow possible.

Extended Snowfall Outlook

According to the ECMWF weather model, heavy snows are in the forecast across the high elevations in the Western US, where a number of winter weather headlines are in place. We could see a decent push of snow across the Central Plains and into the Great Lakes, but there is still a lot of uncertainty between now and then.

Climate Stories

"Climate change worsened Chinese extreme heat and flooding event in 2020: Study"

"Man-made global warming exacerbated an incident of extreme flooding and heat in eastern China in 2020, according to a study released Wednesday, which highlighted the need to prepare for increasingly intense episodes of such weather in the country. Researchers said that warming created by human activity caused an increase in rain that summer by around 6.5 percent, and increased heat by around one degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit). Record rains fell in June and July around the lower part of the Yangtze River during the monsoon, causing the deaths of more than 100 people and billions of dollars in damage, said the study published in the journal Science Advances."

See more from HERE:

"Atlantic hurricane season ends, with Idalia the sole landfall"

"Why it matters: Forecasters' predictions for an above-average season came true, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recording 20 named storms, but Tampa Bay once again got lucky and avoided direct hits. So did most of the country. The sole hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. was Hurricane Idalia, which slammed into Florida's Big Bend region Aug. 30. Yes, but: The Category 3 storm still flooded homes in Pasco County, Tarpon Springs and St. Petersburg's Shore Acres neighborhood as it moved through the Gulf of Mexico. It also majorly eroded Pinellas' beaches. And the storm decimated the timber and agriculture industries in the Big Bend region. Zoom in: An estimated 3 million acres of farms were in Idalia's path, according to a preliminary assessment by the University of Florida Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences. It caused production losses ranging from about $79 million to $371 million. Animals such as cattle and chickens, and animal products like milk, eggs and honey made up $31 million to $123 million of that total. At least $31 million in field and row crops were lost in the storm, and greenhouse and nursery product losses were projected at a minimum of $5 million."

See more from Axios HERE:

"NASA's new AI map tool can forecast exactly how climate change will transform your street"

"Did the increase in extreme weather events across the globe in 2023 spike your eco-anxiety? If not, a new artificial intelligence (AI) tool that can predict how climate change could impact your house will. Revealed at COP28, the AI tool, developed by NASA and IBM, will help us monitor Earth from space – measuring environmental changes that have already happened while also making more accurate predictions about the future. While not designed specifically to scare you, the system could help you escape deadly weather events in future. It's a bit like Google Earth – except that you can toggle different algorithms to reveal overlays such as tree cover, carbon emissions, and flooding and wildfire risk. Plus, the developers are making it available to everyone when it becomes available in 2024. This includes nations, corporations, charities – and you."

See more from Science Focus HERE:

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX