Paul Douglas On Weather
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Weekend Weather Outlook

The weather outlook for the last weekend of March looks very quiet in the Twin Cities. Both Saturday and Sunday will see a mix of clouds and sun with temps warming into the 30s and 40s.

Status of Spring

"March 20, 2023 - Spring leaf out continues to spread north, arriving several days to weeks earlier than average (the period of 1991-2020) in much of the Southeast, lower Midwest, and mid-Atlantic. PIttsburgh, PA is 17 days early. Parts of SE Colorado and Kansas are days to a week late. The West is a mix of early and late. Southwest UT is days to over a week late and Portland, OR is 2 days late. Spring bloom has also arrived in southern states, days to weeks early in the Southeast, and days to over a week late in the Southwest. Nashville, TN is 25 days early, Las Vegas, NV is 8 days late. How typical is this year's spring? Darker colors represent springs that are unusually early or late in the long-term record. Gray indicates an average spring. Parts of the Southeast, lower Midwest, mid-Atlantic, and New York City area are seeing either the earliest spring leaf on record or a spring that only occurs once every 40 years (dark green). Parts of Arizona are seeing a spring that only occurs this late once every 40 years (purple). Spring bloom is latest on record across parts of the Southwest including California and Arizona, and earliest on record in parts of the upper Southeast including Tennessee, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina."

See more from the National Phenology Network HERE:

"Spring Outlook: California drought cut by half with more relief to come"

"Moderate to major spring flooding predicted along upper Mississippi River from Minneapolis to St. Louis. Significant flooding is ongoing in the western U.S., especially in California, following another series of strong Pacific storms that battered the region and piled on to an already historic snowpack. According to NOAA's U.S. Spring Outlook, the abnormally wet winter will further improve drought across much of the western U.S. as the snowpack melts in the coming months. Winter precipitation, combined with recent storms, wiped out exceptional and extreme drought in California for the first time since 2020, and is expected to further improve drought conditions this spring. NOAA's U.S. Spring Outlook highlights temperature, precipitation, drought and flood predictions for April through June to help the nation prepare for potential weather and climate threats to lives and livelihoods."

See more from NOAA HERE:

8th Snowiest Season at MSP

With more than 81" of snow, the MSP Airport is currently sitting at the 8th snowiest winter on record! We need less than 4" of additional snow to get into the top 5, but would need almost an additional 18" to get to the top spot.

Spring Flood Outlook

"No real changes in the last two weeks... The late March updated outlook for spring flooding in the upper Mississippi, Minnesota, and Chippewa River basins remains well above normal, particularly on the Mississippi from St. Paul downstream. The very high snowpack for this time of year has remained in place over the last two weeks. There is some good news! The 7-10 day temperature and precipitation pattern is favorable for a slow melting period through the end of March (details later in the briefing). As always, the threat of seeing major flooding will still depend on what kind of rainfall/temperature patterns we get as we move into April."

See more from the NWS Twin Cities HERE:

Extended Temperature Outlook

The NBM extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows milder temps in place over the next several days with a number of 40s through the end of the month. Note that there is a potential for a 50F reading by early April. Interestingly, the last time we hit 50F or warmer was back on November 26th (53F). Last year, we hit our first 50F on March 15th (51F). On average, we hit our first 50F on March 4th.

Snow Depth

As of Friday, March 24th, the MSP Airport had 2" of snow on the ground. Much of the state of Minnesota and into northern Wisconsin has a pretty significant snowpack. Nearly 2ft to 3ft of snow is on the ground near Lake Superior and more than 3ft on the ground near across parts of the U.P. of Michigan.

Consecutive Days With At Least 1" of Snow Depth

Believe it or not, the MSP Airport has had at least 1" of snow on the ground for 115 consecutive days as of March 24th, which is tied for the 9th longest stretch on record. Warmer days are in the forecast, so we'll see how long this lasts.

Seasonal Snowfall

Many locations are nearly 2ft to 3ft above average snowfall for the season from Sioux Falls to the Twin Cities and north toward Duluth. MSP was sitting at 81.2" of snow for the season (since July 1st), which is the7th snowiest start to any season on record and nearly 36" above average. Duluth has seen 125" of snow this season and the snowiest start to any season on record there and the 6th snowiest season on record.

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Saturday

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Saturday, March 24th shows quiet weather in place with a mix of sun and clouds. Temps will warm into the mid 40s, which will be a little below average for the end of March.

Weather Outlook on Saturday

Temps across the region on Saturday will warm into the30s and 40s across much of the state, which will be around -5F to -15F below average. Despite being a little below average, the weather will be fairly nice with a mix of clouds and sun.

Meteograms For Minneapolis

The hourly temps through the day Saturday will start in the upper 20s in the morning and will warm into the low/mid 40s in the afternoon. There will be a mix of clouds and sun with north to northwesterly winds around 15mph to 20mph.

Hourly Feels Like Temps

Feels like temps on Saturday will start in the mid/upper 20s in the morning and will warm into the upper 30s by the afternoon.

Weather Outlook

Weather conditions will be quieter in the Upper Midwest through the weekend, but will turn more unsettled mid/late week next week as a bigger storm system develops. There could be a rain/snow mix closer to home. The weekend could see lingering showers and storms across the Gulf Coast States, some of which could be strong to severe with locally heavy rain.

Severe Threat on Saturday & Sunday

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible once again in the Southern US over the weekend. According to the Storm Prediction Center, isolated severe threats will be possible.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

Temps will warm into the upper 30s and low/mid 40s through the weekend and into early next week, which will be nearly -5F to -10F below average for this time of the year.

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

Weather conditions will be rather quiet over the next several days with temps running nearly -5F to -10F below average for this time of the year. Late next week could feature a rain/snow mix as a bigger storm system develops in the Midwest.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows cooler than average temperatures across much of the northern tier of the nation and especially across the Midwest.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows active weather continuing in the Pacific Northwest and also across the Southern US.

Slow Motion Goldilocks Meltdown Next 2 Weeks
By Paul Douglas

Today the sun is as high in the sky as it was on September 17, 2022, when the high temperature at MSP was a muggy 83F. Why isn't it as warm on March 25? Cue a convergence of factors. Snow on the ground cools air from below, but the bigger factor is snow and long nights north and west of Minnesota, with chilly air born over the Arctic Circle trickling into Minnesota into early May. It takes longer for a higher sun angle to compensate for nagging chill over Canada.

I see a cool bias into early April with 40s by day and 20s at night, a "Goldilocks Meltdown". Snow melts during the day, a nighttime freeze taps the brakes on runoff. We are far from out of the woods, and some experts are still fearing the worst river flooding in 2 decades. We'll see.

10-12" of snow falls on Madison and Milwaukee today while we enjoy a partly sunny weekend. I see more rain than snow late next week. Nothing heavy in sight.

buds, bugs, heat exhaustion, humidity complaints, lightning strikes, ozone alerts or pollen, either.

Extended Forecast

SATURDAY: Partly sunny and cool. Winds: NW 10-15. High: 45.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy and quiet. Winds: NW 5-10. Low: 23.

SUNDAY: Mix of clouds and sun. Winds: NW 5-10. High: 43.

MONDAY: Clouds increase. Winds: NE 5-10. Wake-up: 22. High: 44.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy, cooler breeze. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 26. High: 40.

WEDNESDAY: Chilly with flurries possible. Winds: E 7-12. Wake-up: 23. High 37.

THURSDAY: Light rain-snow mix. Winds: E 10-15. Wake-up: 29. High 42.

FRIDAY: Little bit of rain and drizzle. Winds: NE 10-20. Wake-up: 33. High 45.

This Day in Weather History

March 25th

2007: Record warmth stretches from southern Minnesota to western Wisconsin with 72 at Owatonna, 77 at Menomonie, WI, and 80 at Eau Claire, WI.

1981: An F2 tornado hits Morrison county and does $25,000 worth of damage.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

March 25th

Average High: 46F (Record: 78F set in 1939)

Average Low: 29F (Record: -5F set in 1940)

Record Rainfall: 0.51" set in 1995

Record Snowfall: 3.6" set in 1996

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

March 25th

Sunrise: 7:06am

Sunset: 7:31pm

Hours of Daylight: ~12 hours & 24 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: +3 Minutes & 9 Seconds

Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 3 hour & 38 minutes

Moon Phase for March 25th at Midnight

2.8 Days Before First Quarter Moon

National High Temps on Saturday

Temperatures on Saturday will be cooler than average across much of the nation with the exception of the Southern US. Temps in Denver will be nearly -25F below average with areas of snow possible.

National Weather Outlook Saturday

The weather outlook on Saturday will be unsettled across the Eastern US with scattered showers and storms, some of which could be strong to severe in the Southeastern US. Areas of rain and snow will be possible across the Great Lakes and Northeast with areas of snow possible across the Rockies.

National Weather Outlook

Weather conditions will remain active in the Northeastern US with rain, snow and strong winds. Scattered storms, some strong to severe will be possible in the Southern US. Areas of snow will continue in the Rockies.

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavier amounts across parts of the Central & Southern US with localized flooding possible. There will be areas of heavy precipitation in the Western US as well and especially in the high elevations

Snowfall Potential

According to the ECMWF (European model), heavy snow will be found across much of the high elevations in the Western US and across the northern tier of the nation. Some spots in the Midwest could get some plowable snow once again.

Climate Stories

"The World Faces a Water Crisis and 4 Powerful Charts Show How"

"Hundreds of millions of people lack access to safe water and sanitation. Will the first U.N. conference on water in nearly 50 years make a difference? The United Nations water conference started this week. Co-hosted by the Netherlands and Tajikistan, the three-day event will take place at UN headquarters in New York and will be the first such event in nearly half a century. During that time, a rising number of people around the world have gained access to safe water and sanitation (see 'A tale of two halves') — except in sub-Saharan Africa (see 'The neglect of Africa'), where the numbers without safe drinking-water services are greater than they were in 2000. Globally, around 500 million people are compelled to use open defecation, and millions more rely on contaminated water supplies. Can this conference make a difference?"

See more from Scientific American HERE:

"NASA Is Tracking a Huge, Growing Anomaly in Earth's Magnetic Field"

"NASA is actively monitoring a strange anomaly in Earth's magnetic field: a giant region of lower magnetic intensity in the skies above the planet, stretching out between South America and southwest Africa. This vast, developing phenomenon, called the South Atlantic Anomaly, has intrigued and concerned scientists for years, and perhaps none more so than NASA researchers. The space agency's satellites and spacecraft are particularly vulnerable to the weakened magnetic field strength within the anomaly, and the resulting exposure to charged particles from the Sun. The South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) – likened by NASA to a 'dent' in Earth's magnetic field, or a kind of 'pothole in space' – generally doesn't affect life on Earth, but the same can't be said for orbital spacecraft (including the International Space Station), which pass directly through the anomaly as they loop around the planet at low-Earth orbit altitudes."

See more from Science Alert HERE:

"Videos Show Tornado Tearing Through Greater Los Angeles Area"

"Video footage of a powerful tornado ripping through the Greater Los Angeles area has gone viral on social media. The National Weather Service Los Angeles Twitter page confirmed that a tornado hit Montebello, California, at about 11:20 a.m. on Wednesday. The state of California has been struck with extreme weather conditions in recent weeks, with some climate experts warning that such weather could become the new normal. Tom Corringham, a research economist at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego, previously told Newsweek that California could expect more of these extreme weather patterns in the future as the climate warms."

See more from Newsweek HERE:

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