Paul Douglas On Weather
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River Flooding Continues

Major river flooding continues across the region. However, river levels are starting to crest or even start falling back off here in the metro.

Looking at the Mississippi River at St. Paul, water levels are starting to level off some, with only a slight additional rise expected over the next couple of days before levels start to fall this weekend and early next week.

Meanwhile, the St. Croix River at Stillwater crested back on Monday at 89.26 ft, the 7th highest crest on record. The river will slowly drop over the next week, getting below moderate flood stage next Tuesday or Wednesday.


Rounds Of Showers Through The Weekend

Forecast loop from 7 PM Wednesday to 1 AM Sunday.

As a slower-moving area of low pressure moves through the region during the second half of the week and through the Great Lakes this weekend, we will see rounds of at least scattered showers from Wednesday Night onward. The periods with the best chances of rain in the metro will be Wednesday Night (with an inch or two of snow possible in the far northeastern part of the Arrowhead), Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon, Saturday from the mid-morning hours to the evening, and again Sunday midday/afternoon.

Overall, precipitation amounts of at least a quarter inch can be expected across the northern two-thirds of the state - with some of the heaviest from west-central Minnesota through the Brainerd Lakes area to the North Shore where 0.5" to 1" is possible.


Closer Look At A Warm Thursday

While an isolated shower could still be around during the morning hours from overnight rain, most of the morning and midday hours should be dry in the metro before the next round of rain chances move in. Morning temperatures will start off around 50F with highs climbing to the mid-60s - the warmest day since the four-day stretch of 80s back between the 11th and 14th of this month.

The highest chance of those afternoon showers will be across central Minnesota near a frontal boundary and ahead of an area of low pressure moving in. Many areas of the state will see a mix of sun and clouds to mainly cloudy skies on Thursday with highs ranging from the 40s along the North Shore to near 70F in southwestern Minnesota.


Cooler Into The Weekend

Looking toward the end of the week and into the weekend:

Friday: Shower chances will linger throughout most of the day here in the metro as that area of low pressure crosses southern Minnesota with a cold front. Highs will be in the upper 50s.

Saturday: While the day will start off dry, rain chances will start to move back in by the late morning hours. Especially early in the day (and to our northwest) a few snowflakes could mix in. Highs cool a touch into the mid-50s.

Sunday: Another step backward in temperatures are expected with highs in the low 50s. Sunday will feature some scattered showers across the state as the area of low pressure hangs around in the Great Lakes, but most of those chances will be from midday onward.


Another Fine Day In Tornado-Free Minnesota
By Paul Douglas

Minnesota is still tornado-free! One advantage of a chilling, perpetually disappointing spring, here in the Land of 10,000 Weather Excuses.

There is growing evidence that traditional "Tornado Alley" has shifted south/east since 2000, with more big (nocturnal) tornadoes east of the Mississippi, from Indiana and Kentucky to Alabama. Is it a fluke or a trend? We need more data. Stay tuned.

Iowa is more tornado-prone than Minnesota, and already this year NOAA SPC reports 35 tornadoes south of the border, with 86 in Illinois and 80 in Alabama. It has been too cool, dry and stable for tornadic storms here at home, but that will change as warm fronts struggle northward. Key word: struggle.

60s will feel like sweet relief today with a few showers, maybe a growl of thunder. Models hint at a half inch of rain or more by Sunday, as a massive storm stalls over the Great Lakes.

60s return the middle of next week. Whew. Bayfield, Wisconsin has picked up a record 182" snow. Another 1-2 FEET is possible by May 2. [gasp]


Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

THURSDAY: Unsettled, few showers. Wake up 50. High 66. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind SW 10-20 mph.

FRIDAY: Showers and T-storms, some heavy. Wake up 52. High 60. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind NE 10-15 mph.

SATURDAY: Chilly, mainly PM rain showers. Wake up 38. High 52. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

SUNDAY: Gusty, a bit drier. A few PM showers. Wake up 35. High 48. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind NW 15-35 mph.

MONDAY: More clouds than sun, brisk. Wake up 33. High 53. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

TUESDAY: Sunnier and nicer. Wake up 37. High 57. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind W 7-12 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny and springy! Wake up 43. High 73. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SW 10-20 mph.


Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
April 27th

*Length Of Day: 14 hours, 4 minutes, and 39 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: 2 minutes and 49 seconds

*When do we see 15 Hours of Daylight?: May 20th (15 hours, 1 minute, 45 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/Before 6 AM? May 3rd (5:59 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/After 8:30 PM? May 11th (8:30 PM)


This Day in Weather History
April 27th

2002: Heavy snow falls over the Twin Cities and central Minnesota. Chanhassen receives 6 inches, and vivid lightning is seen with the snow during the evening.

1996: Embarrass records a low of 9 degrees. Some central, and most northern, Minnesota lakes are still ice-covered.

1921: A late season blizzard hits Hibbing. The temperature was 75 degrees three days earlier.


National Weather Forecast

A system in the lower Mississippi Valley Thursday will continue to produce showers and storms from the Mississippi Valley to the Southeast, a few of which could be strong. Showers and some snow showers are possible from the Rockies to the upper Midwest. Some rain will fall in the Northeast with an area of low pressure near the coast.

Additional heavy rain through the end of the week of 3"+ will be possible across the Southern Plains and the northern Gulf Coast which could cause some isolated flooding. Overall snow amounts of a foot or more are possible in the Colorado Rockies.


Climate Science Says a Livable Future Is Possible. What Does That Actually Mean?

More from CNET: "Our children's world will be different from ours. Our grandchildren's world even more so. The crucial question is, to what extent will that world be livable? The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released its latest report last month — a synthesis of all the work it's done over the past few years to summarize the latest climate science. It noted that if urgent action is taken to tackle the climate crisis, a livable future can still be possible. It's good news, but describing Earth's future as merely "livable" hardly paints an inspiring picture of what future generations have to look forward to. That feels like the bare minimum."

As Sea Levels Rise, the East Coast Is Also Sinking

More from WIRED: "CLIMATE SCIENTISTS ALREADY know that the East Coast of the United States could see around a foot of sea-level rise by 2050, which will be catastrophic on its own. But they are just beginning to thoroughly measure a "hidden vulnerability" that will make matters far worse: The coastline is also sinking. It's a phenomenon known as subsidence, and it's poised to make the rising ocean all the more dangerous, both for people and coastal ecosystems. New research published in the journal Nature Communications finds that the Atlantic Coast—home to more than a third of the US population—is dropping by several millimeters per year. In Charleston, South Carolina, and the Chesapeake Bay, it's up to 5 millimeters (a fifth of an inch). In some areas of Delaware, it's as much as twice that."

In the Race for Clean Energy, Is Offshore Wind Harming the Nation's Fisheries?

More from Civil Eats: "Tom Hafer remembers the first time the fish stopped biting. It was a little over 20 years ago when fiber optic cables were being installed in waters off the coast of central California, where he fishes commercially for spot prawns and rockfish. The fishing was disrupted for "miles and miles," says Hafer, who has been fishing since the 1970s. Now, he and many other fishermen are bracing themselves for what could be a much larger threat looming in the water. Offshore wind farms, which are ramping up in the United States, could come at a tremendous cost to fishermen as they are being sited in prime fishing areas. And the process of erecting wind farms and their long-term presence in the water could alter aquatic ecosystems, potentially driving away fish and marine mammals."


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Thanks for checking in and have a great day!

- D.J. Kayser