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Billion Dollar Disasters So Far in 2023
"2023 in Progress… In 2023 (as of September 11), there have been 23 confirmed weather/climate disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion each to affect United States. These events included 2 flooding events, 18 severe storm events, 1 tropical cyclone event, 1 wildfire event, and 1 winter storm event. Overall, these events resulted in the deaths of 253 people and had significant economic effects on the areas impacted. The 1980–2022 annual average is 8.1 events (CPI-adjusted); the annual average for the most recent 5 years (2018–2022) is 18.0 events (CPI-adjusted)."
Comet Nishimura in the Night Sky
"Can you still see new comet Nishimura? Early risers might have had their the final opportunities over this past week to glimpse comet C/2023 P1 (Nishimura). The comet has been visible toward the east-northeastern horizon shortly before sunrise. But the comet is approaching the sun in its orbit – and in our sky – and so, although it's continuing to get brighter, it's also getting closer to the sunrise. After about Sunday, September 10, 2023, Comet Nishimura is going be increasingly difficult to observe. Comet Nishimura – that great icy ball moving through space, which so many are now capturing on film – will be closest to Earth on September 12. And it'll be closest to the sun (perihelion) on September 17. It has been displaying a long, beautiful tail! But its long tail shows up only on long-exposure images. Still … wow!"
Fall Color Update
According to the MN DNR, there is already a little fall color showing up across parts of the state. Note that peak color typically arrives along the International border around mid to late September. It could be a little later this year, but cooler nights ahead will help to get the fall colors underway.
Typical Peak Fall Color
According to the MN DNR, typical peak color arrives across the international border mid to late September with peak color arriving near the Twin Cities late September to mid October. It won't be long now and you'll be able to find your favorite fall color in a backyard near you.
Hurricane Lee in the Atlantic
Here's a look at Hurricane Lee from Monday, which was still a major hurricane with sustained winds of 120mph. At one point early Friday morning, Lee was a major category 5 storm with sustained winds of 165mph and a central pressure down to 924mb.
Tracking Lee
According to NOAA's NHC, the track for Lee keeps it as a major hurricane through midweek. Hurricane status is still expected through the end of the week as it makes a close encounter with Bermuda on Friday. We'll have to keep an eye on this system as it approaches the Northern New England States this weekend.
September 10th: Peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th, but did you know that the typical peak is September 10th? This is when the Atlantic Basin has had the most hurricanes and named storms since records began. This is also when weather conditions are at optimal levels for these types of storms.
Typical Tracks and Points of Origin
(September 11th - 20th)
Here's a map of all the tropical cyclone points of origin and their tracks from September 11th to the 20th from 1851 to 2015. As you can see, it has historically been a very active time period with tropical systems developing just about anywhere in the basin.
6th Most 90F Days on Record at MSP
It has been a hot summer with (32) days with highs at 90F degrees or warmer. This is the 6th most number of 90F degree days on record, the most recent being 1988 when there were 44 days.
Number of 90F Days So Far This Year
Here's a list of all the 90F degree days that we've seen so far this year. The hottest days, were back to back on August 22nd and 23rd, when the MSP hit 98F and heat index values peaking around 110F to 120F around the metro. We also hit 98F on September 4th, but the dewpoint wasn't as high, so the heat index wasn't as intense. Uffda!
Average Number of 90F Days At MSP
Looking at the last 30 years, the average number of 90F days at the MSP Airport is (14). July is the hottest month with an average of (6) 90F days. This year we've had (23) 90F days, last year we had (18) days in the 90s and in 2021 there were (27) days in the 90s. The most number of 90F days in any single year was (44) set in 1988.
90 Day Precipitation Anomaly
On average, the wettest time of the year is in the summer, with the months of June, July and August seeing nearly 13" of rain at the MSP Airport. If we take a look at the 90 day precipitation anomaly, which dates back to early June, some locations are nearly -3.00" to nearly -7.00" below average (in red/pink). Note that some locations across southeastern Minnesota are nearly -8.00" to -10.00" below average.
Drought Update
Drought continues and expanded from last week with a little more than 1% of the state in an Exceptional drought. Nearly 16% of the state is now in an Extreme drought, while 40% of the state is in a Severe drought, which includes much of the Twin Cities metro. 3 months ago, 72% of the state was considered abnormally dry, with nearly 12% in a moderate drought.
Weather Outlook For Tuesday
The weather outlook on Tuesday shows temperatures only warming into the 60s across much of the state. Interestingly, folks in northeastern Minnesota will only warm into the 50s. These readings will be more like October and nearly -10F to -15F below average. There may also be a few isolated showers early, but most of the day will stay dry.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Tuesday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Tuesday, September 12th will be a little chilly for mid-September with temps only warming into the mid 60s. There could be a few stray showers early in the day, but must of the day will be dry.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
Weather conditions for Minneapolis on Tuesday will be quite chilly with readings starting in the lower 50s in the morning and topping out in the mid 60s in the afternoon. This will be nearly -10F to -15F below average for this time of the year. There could be a few isolated showers, but most of the day should be dry. Northerly winds could be a little breezy in the afternoon around 15mph.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis will be a little cooler than average through midweek before mid to upper 70s return later in the week and weekend ahead.
Comfy Dewpoints into Early September
The max dewpoint forecast for Minneapolis over the next several days shows very comfortable and fall-like readings into the lower 50s and even the 40s at times. This means that our overnight lows will be quite a bit cooler through the week ahead.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The 7 day extended weather outlook through mid month shows temps warming back into the mid/upper 70s later this week and into the week ahead. Skies will stay mostly dry over the next several days as well.
More Comfortable Temps Ahead
According to NOAA's National Blend of Models, temperatures over the next several days will be quite a bit nicer with readings generally in the 70s through mid month. A few days may dip into the 60s with overnight lows into the 40s, which will feel a little like October at times. A few days could top out near 80F as well.
Weather Outlook
The weather outlook in the Midwest through next weekend looks mostly dry through the Midwest. Most of the rainfall will be found across the Southern and Eastern US. Keep an eye on Lee in the Atlantic, which could impact the Northern New England states and Eastern Canada later this week.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows Warmer than average temperatures across much of the Nation. Cooler than average temps will be found across parts of southern California.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center it'll be dry from the Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi Valley. More active weather will be possible across parts of the Western US.
Record Number of Billion Dollar Disasters
By Paul Douglas
The insurance industry is the climate-canary in the coal mine. If they don't price risk accurately and appropriately, they go out of business. In states like Florida and California it is increasingly difficult to insure your home due to converging factors, including high building costs and climate-fueled weather disasters.
According to NOAA, 2023 has already seen 23 separate billion dollar weather disasters, the most since they began tracking these costly storms in 1980. $57.6 billion in damage so far in 2023, since 1980 there have been 371 events costing over $2.6 trillion dollars.
Hurricane Lee may come uncomfortably close to Cape Cod, Boston and coastal New England Saturday. Stay tuned.
A few pop-up showers are possible today with cool breezes and a mercury stuck in the 60s. I see highs in the 70s and low 80s into next week. Plenty of lukewarm days left to come. But the predicted low tonight in the metro area is 47F. That's the chilliest nighttime temperature since 44F back on May 20.
Not. Ready. Yet.
Extended Forecast
TUESDAY: Clouds, few showers. Winds: N 10-15. High: 67.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear & quiet. Winds: NE 5-10. Low: 47.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny and pleasant. Winds: SE 8-13. High 69.
THURSDAY: Sunny breaks, breezy. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 58. High 80.
FRIDAY: More clouds, few showers. Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 60. High 78.
SATURDAY: Sunny and lukewarm. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 57. High: 76.
SUNDAY: Blue sky, still pleasant. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 53. High: 75.
MONDAY: Sunny and warm. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 56. High: 81.
This Day in Weather History
September 12th
1982: Two tornadoes touch down in Benton County. The F2 tornado causes $250,000 worth of damage, and an F0 tornado causes $25,000.
1931: The fifth consecutive day of 90 degrees or above occurs in the Minneapolis area.
1923: Winter weather pays an early visit to northern Minnesota. The cities of Roseau and Virginia receive flurries and sleet.
1903: 4.96 inches of rain fall in the Minneapolis area.
1869: A hail storm between 1 and 3 am breaks windows and causes considerable damage to late vegetables at Madilia in Watonwan County.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
September 12th
Average High: 75F (Record: 94F set in 1908 & 1948)
Average Low: 56F (Record: 36F set in 1878 & 1940)
Record Rainfall: 4.96" set in 1903
Record Snowfall: NONE
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
September 12th
Sunrise: 6:48am
Sunset: 7:30pm
Hours of Daylight: ~12 hours & 42 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: 3 Minutes & 4 Seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 2 Hour & 55 Minutes
Moon Phase for September 12th at Midnight
1.8 Days Before New Moon
National High Temps on Tuesday
Temperatures on Tuesday will be a little cooler than average across the Central US, which is much different than it was a few weeks ago, when we had widespread dangerous heat concerns. Scattered showers and storms will be found in the Southwestern US, where areas of heavy rain will be possible.
National Weather Tuesday
The weather outlook on Tuesday will be unsettled from the Great Lakes and the Northeast through the Southern US. Some of the storms could produce locally heavy rainfall across Texas.
National Weather Outlook
The weather outlook through Wednesday shows a weak area of low pressure sliding into the Northeast with scattered showers and storms. There will also be lingering rain chances in the Southern and Southwestern US with areas of heavy rainfall.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook shows areas of heavy rainfall across the Central and Southern Plains. There will also be areas of heavy rain across the Northeast, but the Western US will remain quite dry. Parts of Eastern Canada could see heavy rainfall from Hurricane Lee by next weekend.
Climate Stories
"'The Wild Mile': Giving nature a helpful nudge amid climate change"
Some strategies to offset climate change can be found in a developing feature along the North Branch Canal of the Chicago River. It's known as "The Wild Mile," but the work-in-progress falls short of 5,280 feet. Still, the impressive first phase of the eco-park across from Goose Island features floating boardwalks, docks for kayakers and — perhaps most importantly — floating "hydropots" of vegetation that link the river with the world above and provide for fish, bugs and birds. "It's our flagship project," says Phil Nicodemus, director of research for the Urban Rivers environmental non-profit that is shepherding the project. He spoke with Looped In: Chicago for the podcast's latest episode. "That is something that we are using as a demonstration of how you would take this whole canal, this whole old industrial space, and do the whole thing."
"Southerners slammed by rising temperatures, energy bills"
"Summer heat has been reaching triple digits more often in more places, especially in the U.S. South. It's one of the clearest signals of our warming climate. And a 2022 Washington Post analysis predicts more of the same: The next 30 years will bring the biggest more dangerous heat days to the South — from the Gulf Coast to Maryland. "This is a very personal issue," said Juanita Constible, senior climate and health advocate with the Natural Resources Defense Council's climate adaptation team who has family members in Tennessee. "Since it's hotter than normal, you have this double issue of higher energy bills and infrastructure that was not designed for the summers of the future." Constible noted that energy burdens, the percentage of personal income needed to pay energy bills, tend to be highest in low-income communities and those with less energy-efficient infrastructure."
See more from Yale Climate Connections HERE:
"'Climate breakdown has begun': Globe swelters to hottest summer on record, new data shows"
"The Earth just sweltered through its hottest June-August on record, European scientists announced Wednesday. In addition, ocean temperatures were also at unprecedented highs in August and Antarctic sea ice remained at a record low for the time of year. It was also the hottest August on record – by a large margin – and the second-hottest month ever, after July 2023, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Copernicus Climate Change Service. Climatologists define summer as the months of June, July and August. Officially, the first day of fall isn't until Sept. 23. "Our planet has just endured a season of simmering – the hottest summer on record," United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a statement. "Climate breakdown has begun."