Paul Douglas On Weather
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Drought Increasing Across The State

While some areas of the state have received heavier pockets of rain over the past week to week and a half, not everyone has seen much-needed rain. That, along with the recent above-average temperatures, has caused essentially flash drought conditions to occur over the past two weeks. Just two weeks ago only 30.4% of the state was considered abnormally dry, but now that classification covers 72.08% of the state. Even more concerning, week-to-week the Moderate Drought (D1/4) category increased from 0.84% to 12.4%.

You can see some of the areas where Moderate Drought has been introduced (it had only previously been in the southwestern corner of Minnesota where it still remains) are running 30-day rainfall deficits of 2-3.5".


Rain Chances Friday Into Saturday

Forecast loop from 7 AM Friday to 7 PM Saturday.

As a cold front starts to approach the state Friday, some afternoon and evening storms will be possible mainly across northern Minnesota. This storm chance will slowly move southward into central and southern Minnesota late Friday Night into Saturday.

The best chance of seeing a quarter inch or more from rain Friday into Saturday across the state will be across southern Minnesota. Of course, your rain gauge may beg to differ if you end up under one of the downpours across the region.


Closer Look At Friday

Friday is likely to be the warmest day of the week here in the metro ahead of that cold front which will approach the Canadian border during the day. Morning temperatures will start off in the low 60s with highs in the low to mid-80s. Mainly sunny skies are expected.

We'll watch those storm chances in the afternoon and evening across northern Minnesota on Friday. While most areas of the state will see a mix of sun and clouds to mainly sunny skies, clouds will thicken in western and northern Minnesota during the afternoon hours. Highs will range from the 60s along the North Shore to the 80s across much of the rest of the state.


Weekend Outlook: Storm Chances Saturday, Drier Sunday

Saturday: As shown in the forecast loop above, we will watch the chance of some showers and thunderstorms across central and southern Minnesota on Saturday - including here in the metro. Highs will be around 80F with otherwise a mix of sun and clouds.

Sunday: Mainly sunny skies are expected behind the cold front. Slightly cooler air will have worked in, with highs in the low to mid-70s for the metro.


Wildfire Smoke Followed Record Canadian Heat
By Paul Douglas

Partly-smoky with a deepening drought. Coming after the third snowiest winter on record. Makes perfect sense to me. "Haven't seen that before" I keep muttering. Weather weirding is increasing as a warming climate impacts weather extremes and air quality.

According to Stanford University, Wednesday's plume of thick smoke over the northeast US triggered the worst air pollution since a dataset on wildfire smoke began in 2006.

Why are fires and smoke so bad across Canada and the US in 2023? Scottish meteorologist Scott Duncan summed it up best: "Canada was at the epicenter of the most significant heat anomaly on the planet in May". Record heat + dry brush + strong winds + random lightning strikes = historic fires early in the season. And what happens in Canada doesn't stay in Canada.

Moderate drought has returned to parts of Minnesota but I see little rainy relief. Sunshine today gives way to a few T-storms Saturday and a sunnier, windier, cooler Sunday.

Highs near 90F return next week. Enjoy the break.


Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

FRIDAY: Warm sunshine. Wake up 61. High 84. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind W 5-10 mph.

SATURDAY: More clouds, few T-storms around. Wake up 67. High 76. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind NE 10-20 mph.

SUNDAY: Sunny, windy and cooler. Wake up 56. High 72. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NE 10-25 mph.

MONDAY: Comfortable sunshine, PM sprinkle. Wake up 55. High 76. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind N 10-20 mph.

TUESDAY: Sunny and warmer. Wake up 62. High 87. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny, getting hot again. Wake up 65. High 89. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind W 5-10 mph.

THURSDAY: Hazy sun, clouds increase late. Wake up 70. High 90. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SW 7-12 mph.


Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
June 9th

*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 31 minutes, and 40 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: 53 seconds

*Most Sunlight In A Day: June 21st (15 hours, 36 minutes, 51 seconds)
*Earliest Sunrises Of The Year: June 13th-17th (5:25 AM)
*Earliest Sunsets Of The Year: June 21st-July 2nd (9:03 PM)

This Day in Weather History
June 9th

2002: Extensive flash flood begins across northwest Minnesota. 14.55 inches would fall over the next 48 hours near Lake of the Woods. Floodwaters cover the city of Roseau. The Roseau River looked like a large lake from a satellite view.


National Weather Forecast

On Friday, scattered showers and storms will be possible from the Northwest to the Plains and Upper Midwest. Some of that will be driven by a cold front sinking south out of Canada into the northern United States. Rain will be possible in the Northeast due to a trough of low pressure - but that could also help to usher more Canadian smoke into the region. Storms will also pop up in Florida.

Over three inches of rain will be possible through the first half of the weekend in the Northern Rockies, which could cause some flash flooding.


El Niño is back, and is poised to turbocharge extreme weather

More from The Washington Post: "The infamous climate pattern El Niño has returned for the first time in four years, according to scientists, a declaration of extreme weather risks and a probable acceleration in global warming over the coming year. Climate scientists say El Niño will probably push average global temperatures beyond a record set in 2016. That year, an intense El Niño triggered deadly heat and precipitation and was linked to rainforest losses, coral bleaching and a rise in diseases such as cholera and dengue. What impacts develop around the world in the coming months are difficult to predict — especially because scientists don't yet know whether or how the backdrop of human-caused global warming might affect how El Niño behaves. Earth's oceans have already shown dramatic warming this year, even before El Niño's arrival."

The massive smoke plume choking the northeast U.S. is what climate change looks like

More from Yale Climate Connections: "Some of the most intense, dramatic wildfire smoke in memory swept into the northeast United States on Tuesday, June 6, pushing pollution levels in some cities to record highs. Millions of people from the U.S. mid-Atlantic to southeast Canada were confronted on Tuesday and again on Wednesday by surreal, copper-yellow skies and shrouded horizons. Portions of five states and two Canadian provinces experienced 24-hour levels of fine particle pollution, known as PM 2.5, in the "Unhealthy" (red) range, with even higher levels measured on an hourly basis. According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, at that level, everyone may begin to experience health effects, and members of sensitive groups may experience more serious health effects. Near Canada's capital city of Ottawa, 24-hour PM 2.5 levels were in the "Very Unhealthy" (purple) range. According to the EPA, this level of pollution triggers a health alert, meaning everyone may experience more serious health effects."

World EV Sales Now 14% Of World Auto Sales

More from CleanTechnica: "Global plugin vehicle registrations were up 70% in April 2023 compared to April 2022. There were 928,000 registrations, making it possibly the last month with fewer than one million sales per month ever for plugin electric vehicles. In the end, plugins represented 14% share of the overall auto market (10% BEV share alone). This means that the global automotive market remains in the Electric Disruption Zone. Interestingly, plugless hybrids were also on the rise in April, rising to 808,000 units, robust two-digit growth. This means that in total, over 1.7 million units in April, or some 26% of the global market, had some form of electrification. Year to date, plugin electric vehicle market share stayed at 13% (9.2% BEV). Full electric vehicles (BEVs) represented 70% of plugin registrations in March, pulling up its year-to-date tally by two percentage points, also now at 70% share."

Las Vegas Needs to Save Water. It Won't Find It in Lawns.

More from ProPublica: "As millions of newcomers have flocked to the Las Vegas Valley over the past 50 years, every level of government in the nation's driest state has worked to ensure that water shortages don't stop the growth. Since 1999, southern Nevada has ripped out thousands of acres of turf from lawns, sports fields and roadway medians under the West's most ambitious grass-removal program. These efforts helped halve the amount of water each resident consumed and freed up enough for Clark County to add nearly 1 million people. Now, the valley is again looking to grass removal to continue growing without increasing its overall water use. In 2021, the Nevada Legislature passed a first-of-its-kind law mandating the elimination of "nonfunctional turf," defined as grass that is decorative and rarely used. The Southern Nevada Water Authority promised this would do away with 3,900 acres of grass (roughly 3,000 football fields) within six years."


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- D.J. Kayser