Paul Douglas On Weather
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Northern Lights Possible Thursday Night

With four coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on the way to Earth Thursday into Thursday Night, the northern lights are expected to shine as we head through Thursday Night in the skies above Minnesota, with potential viewing chances into parts of the central and southern United States. For many areas across central and southern Minnesota, mainly clear skies with passing clouds are expected before clouds start to increase toward Friday's sunrise.

This is expected cloud cover around Midnight Thursday Night - which is when NOAA has the start of the highest KP numbers for aurora potential. Again, the best chance of clearer skies will be across central and southern Minnesota, with a few more clouds expected up north.


No Change In The Drought Monitor

We're reaching the time of the year when it'll become tough to see major changes to the drought monitor across the region... and in this week's update, there is no change to the numbers. Approximately 89.4% of Minnesota remains under at least abnormally dry conditions, with 0.25% under Extreme Drought.


Clouds Increase Friday

As we head into Friday in the metro, clouds will be on the increase throughout the day. Morning temperatures will start the day off in the low 20s with highs topping off in the mid-30s.

Clouds will increase throughout the day across the state, with highs ranging from the upper 20s in northern Minnesota to the mid-30s in southern Minnesota.


Mainly Cloudy Weekend With Mid/Upper 30s

Looking toward the weekend:

Saturday: A mainly cloudy day is expected with highs in the mid to upper 30s.

Saturday Night: The snow chance we had been watching continues to move off to our east, so any chances of precipitation are going to be very slight. Lows dip into the upper 20s.

Sunday: Cloudy conditions continue into Sunday with highs climbing to the upper 30s.


40s Return Next Week

Those looking for snow chances might see one in the first half of next week, however, if it does fall and accumulate it won't stick around long. Another warm-up looks probable as we head into the middle/end of next week, with low to mid-40s possible for the metro.


November Recap

November is pretty much over (the data above goes through Wednesday, so it doesn't include the last day of the month), and overall it will go down as a warm and dry month for the metro.

Temperatures: Through the 29th, it has been the 20th warmest November on record, and if the number doesn't change much with Thursday's temperatures (unlikely... as I would expect to see the overall average monthly temperature go down a touch) it would be the 15th warmest on record.

Precipitation: With no precipitation expected Thursday, November will go down as the second driest November on record with only 0.04".

Snowfall: With 0.5", this November will go down as a tie for technically the 14th least snowy on record. The year with the least amount of snow in November - 1880 - has a lot of missing data for the month, so we will take that data point out to get us to the 14th least snowy.

All climate sites will go down as "below-average" in both precipitation and snowfall for November. The greatest precipitation departures are found in eastern and southern Minnesota, where areas are at least an inch below average. With only 1.3" of snow, Duluth is over a foot below average snowfall-wise for November.


Old Man Winter Keeps Pulling His Punch
By Paul Douglas

"The mediocre teacher tells. The good teacher explains. The superior teacher demonstrates. The great teacher inspires" wrote author William A. Ward.

I owe my career to a father who left newspaper articles about weather next to my cereal bowl every morning, weather merit badge in Boy Scouts, a tropical storm named Agnes that flooded our home, and most important, a few amazing teachers. 7th and 9th grade science teachers who made the weather unit come alive. A 12th grade AP English teacher who reminded us to "use action words". Where would we be without amazing teachers?

Welcome to a seasonably cool Friday with fading sunshine. A persistent smear of clouds will be with us over the weekend, but big storms continue to sail to our south.

48F on Wednesday was kind of a big deal, considering the sun is now as high in the sky as it was January 10. Highs nudge 40F next week with an outside shot at 50F by Thursday.

At some point it will snow. You'll need a parka & gloves. For now, enjoy December Lite in Minnesota.


Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

FRIDAY: Clouds slowly increase. Wake up 21. High 36. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NE 5-10 mph.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy and quiet. Wake up 25. High 39. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.

SUNDAY: Clouds linger, probably dry. Wake up 27. High 40. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind E 5-10 mph.

MONDAY: Some sun. Nighttime mix of precip? Wake up 28. High 40. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind S 8-13 mph.

TUESDAY: Becoming partly sunny. Wake up 31. High 41. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny and milder. Wake up 29. High 46. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

THURSDAY: A few clouds. What December? Wake up 35. High 50. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SW 7-12 mph.


Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
December 1st

*Length Of Day: 9 hours, 2 minutes, and 19 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 1 minute and 33 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 9 Hours Of Sunlight? December 3rd (8 hours, 59 minutes, 24 seconds)
*When Is The Latest Sunrise? December 30th-January 5th (7:51 AM)
*What Is The Earliest Sunset? December 8th-14th (4:31 PM)

This Day in Weather History
December 1st

1998: The warmest December day ever in the Twin Cities is recorded, with a high of 68 degrees. St. Cloud rose to 61.

1985: Parts of central Minnesota receive up to a foot of snow. Snowfall totals include 12 inches at Waseca and Milaca, 11.3 at Alexandria, and 11 inches at Fairmont and Long Prairie.


National Weather Forecast

We're tracking two main systems across the lower 48 on Friday. One is with an area of low pressure moving east from the central part of the nation, which will bring showers and storms from the Gulf Coast to parts of the Northeast with snow and icing on the north side from the Central Plains to New England. Another system in the Pacific Northwest brings snow and storm concerns.

Heavy rain will impact areas from southwestern Texas into the Deep South from Thursday through Saturday, with the potential of 3-5" for some locations. The good news is that this rain is impacting some areas that are under exceptional drought - so while it might be a little much at one time, it hopefully will help the drought situation at least slightly.

Very heavy snow will slam the Cascades over the next few days, with up to 3 feet expected.


EPA proposes requirement to remove lead pipes from US water systems within 10 years

More from CNN: "The US Environmental Protection Agency is proposing a rule that would require water systems across the country to replace millions of lead service lines within 10 years. The rule would accelerate progress toward the Biden administration goal of removing 100% of lead pipes; lead exposure is linked to significant health and developmental problems, especially for children. The EPA proposal said lines must be replaced within 10 years, regardless of the lead levels in tap or other drinking water samples. Additional time could be allowed "in limited circumstances" for some systems that need complete system-wide line replacements, the proposal said."

Amazon turns to brownfields, other 'challenging' projects to accelerate clean energy progress

More from UtilityDrive: "Developing renewable energy projects isn't getting any easier. But Amazon hasn't slowed its progress toward its clean energy goals — and doesn't intend to, Sahlstrom said. The company expects to power its operations, including its data centers, fulfillment centers and physical stores, with 100% renewable energy by 2025, Sahlstrom said — five years ahead of its initial 2030 goal. The company has added 78 new wind and solar projects so far this year, including the Maryland coal site project, and now has renewable energy projects operating in 26 countries and 21 U.S. states. Amazon has also invested in utility-scale battery storage, Sahlstrom said. One of the biggest challenges the company currently faces, Sahlstrom said, is deploying renewable energy in regions of the world where corporate procurement of renewable energy is less common."

Plans to present meat as 'sustainable nutrition' at Cop28 revealed

More from The Guardian: "Big meat companies and lobby groups are planning a large presence at the Cop28 climate conference, equipped with a communications plan to get a pro-meat message heard by policymakers throughout the summit. Documents seen by the Guardian and DeSmog show that the meat industry is poised to "tell its story and tell it well" at the Dubai conference. The files show how the world's largest meat company, JBS, is planning to come out in "full force" at the summit, along with other big industry hitters such as the Global Dairy Platform and the North American Meat Institute. The documents, which were produced by the industry-funded Global Meat Alliance (GMA), emphasise the industry's desire to promote "our scientific evidence" at the summit."


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Thanks for checking in and have a great day!

- D.J. Kayser