The Ravens, Browns and Raiders gave us three powerful Week 2 reminders as to why there is absolutely no money supporting anything you're about to read.
Together, those three teams held double-digit second-half leads of a combined 54 points last week. All three lost and, poof, a 13-3 straight-up record became 10-6 while a 9-7 against-the-spread mark fell to 6-10.
That is, of course, the weekly pitfall of NFL wagering.
Week 3 offers up eight road favorites. This NFL picker is taking four of the home dogs, including two swing-for-the-fences-and-probably-look-foolish-in-doing-so upset picks of Cardinals over Rams and, yes, Miami over the league's best-by-far-for-now team, Buffalo.
- Updated odds: Point spreads, over/under
Here are this week's picks:
Lions (+7) at Vikings: There's full faith here that Vikings fans will make a huge difference that reinvigorates the pass rush against the statue that is Jared Goff. As for the back end of the defense, well, one can only hope that this week's game plan calls for covering receivers from inside the same area code. Vikings 28, Lions 20
Packers (+3) at Buccaneers: Two TBs (Tom Brady and Todd Bowles) will be enough offense and defense to handle two Aarons (Rodgers and Jones) at home. Buccaneers by 7
Texans (+2 ½) at Bears: It's throwback day in Chicago as Lovie Smith and his bad but pesky Texans steal a winnable game from the developing Bears. Texans by 3
Ravens (-3) at Patriots: Ravens by 7
Bengals (-4 ½) at Jets: Jets by 3
Raiders (-1) at Titans: Titans by 3
Chiefs (-6 ½) at Colts: Chiefs by 10
Saints (-3) at Panthers: Saints by 6
Eagles (-4) at Commanders: Eagles by 7
Jaguars (+7) at Chargers: Jaguars by 3
Rams (-4) at Cardinals: Cardinals by 3
Falcons (+2) at Seahawks: Seahawks by 3
49ers (+1) at Broncos: 49ers by 3
Cowboys (+3) at Giants: How utterly unpredictable is this league? Well, either Cooper Rush or the New York Giants/Daniel Jones will remain undefeated after this one. Cowboys 24, Giants 19
Bills (-4 ½) at Dolphins: Buffalo looks unbeatable on both sides of the ball. And in the NFL, that's usually about the time a team like that loses. Miami's Tua Tagovailoa is coming off a six-touchdown game and a rally from 35-14 down against Baltimore. The Dolphins are up to this tall task at home. Dolphins 34, Bills 31
Last week's Upset Special: Cowboys (+7 1/2) 24, Bengals 21. Score: Cowboys 20, Bengals 17. Record: 1-1.
Straight up last week/season: 10-6/16-14-1.
Against the spread last week/season: 6-10/12-19.
Vikings record: 1-1.