Paul Douglas On Weather
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Little Change In The Drought

The story this week in the Drought Monitor update is... not a lot has changed. We saw slight increases or decreases in the D1-D3 categories, but nothing that is really notable. A tiny area of Extreme (D3) drought was added in the Twin Ports area - but most of what was added was over into parts of northern Wisconsin.

While there were mostly minimal changes in the Drought Monitor across Minnesota this week, we did actually see the drought accelerate in far southwestern Minnesota, where areas of Pipestone, Rock, and Nobles Counties saw a two-category increase in drought categories.

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Storms Thursday Night

Forecast loop from 7 PM Thursday to 7 AM Friday.

As a system moves in Thursday Night, we will watch showers and storms moving east across the state. These should be near the Minnesota/Dakota border this evening, reaching the metro between Midnight and 6 AM Friday.

A few storms this evening into the early overnight hours could be strong to severe west of the metro, with the highest threat out toward Montevideo and Marshall. Hail and wind are the main threats, but across that Slight Risk area an isolated tornado can't be ruled out.

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Couple Of Storm Chances Friday

As we head into Friday in the metro, we will be watching two chances of storms. The first comes early in the morning from the overnight storms moving east into Wisconsin. The second will come in the afternoon and evening hours as scattered storms redevelop across the state. Morning temperatures start off in the mid-60s with highs climbing to the mid-80s.

As we look across the state on Friday, we'll watch rain chances during the morning hours in the Arrowhead, with pop-up afternoon storms across the rest of the state. Highs will be stuck in the 60s in the Arrowhead Friday, but approach 90F in southwestern Minnesota.

Forecast loop from 7 AM Friday to 7 AM Saturday.

Here's a look at the potential storm forecast for Friday. Again, showers will linger over northeastern Minnesota as that batch of storms moves out of the region. During the afternoon, scattered pop-up storms will develop across the state, mainly coming to an end as we approach sunset.

The storms Friday afternoon and evening could be strong to severe, with a Slight Risk (threat level 2/5) in place from the Brainerd Lakes area southeastward to the metro and Rochester. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats.

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Sunny And Breezy Saturday - Rain Possible Sunday

Saturday: A nice, but breezy, day of weather is expected with lots of sunshine and highs in the low 80s. Winds will gust as high as 25 mph.

Sunday: We will watch another system approach the region which will bring the chance of storms into the afternoon and evening hours. Highs only reach the mid-70s with more cloud cover and rain chances.

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Slight Severe T-storm Threat Today

By Paul Douglas

After 90" of snow and a cold, slushy April I remember hearing growls of discontent. "We will be cheated out of a real summer this year - I can see it coming!"

In spite of smoke and creeping drought we are experiencing a real summer this year. Today should be the 75th day of 2023 with a metro high temperature of 80F or higher. That's the third most on record, to date, just behind 1988 and 1934.

And yes, it has been a smoky, smelly summer, largely the result of historic wildfires over Canada. MPCA reports 16 statewide air quality alerts to date, breaking the old record of 13 in 2021.

Last night's storms fade with shrinking puddles and sunny peeks later this morning, but conditions are ripe for strong to severe T-storms by the dinner hour, some packing hail and damaging winds.

Saturday still looks like the sunnier, drier day with low 80s. A strong clipper pushes more noisy showers across the state after lunch Sunday.

For MSP this is the 6th driest meteorological summer since 1871, with 3.85" of rain.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

FRIDAY: Strong/severe storms later. Wake up 67. High 86. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind W 10-20 mph.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny, better outdoor day. Wake up 64. High 83. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

SUNDAY: PM showers and T-storms likely. Wake up 63. High 74. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

MONDAY: Showery, gusty winds. Septemberish! Wake up 61. High 72. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind NW 20-40 mph.

TUESDAY: Sunshine returns, winds ease. Wake up 59. High 81. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Warm summer sunshine. Wake up 60. High 83. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 10-15 mph.

THURSDAY: Showers and T-storms return, gusty. Wake up 70. High 85. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind NW 15-35 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
August 11th

*Length Of Day: 14 hours, 15 minutes, and 49 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 2 minutes and 40 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 14 Hours Of Sunlight? August 17th (13 hours, 59 minutes, 17 seconds)
*When Are Sunrises After 6:30 AM? August 28th (6:30 AM)
*When Are Sunsets At/Before 8:00 PM? August 27th (7:59 PM)
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This Day in Weather History
August 11th

1945: Nearly 8 inches of rain fall from a downpour over Red Wing.

1899: A lightning bolt from 'clear skies' destroys a storefront in Fisher, Polk County. It is possible for lightning bolts to extend outward from nearby storms, striking locations that appear safe under blue skies.

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National Weather Forecast

Areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected across the central, southeastern, and southwestern United States, as well as in New England, on Friday. A few of the storms could be severe in the Upper Midwest and Southeast. Dangerously hot conditions will continue to impact the South Central and Southeastern United States.

The heaviest rain through the first half of the weekend will be across the eastern United States, where at least 2-3" of rain could fall over the next few days.

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At least 36 people have died in Maui wildfires that overwhelmed hospitals, demolished homes and destroyed cultural sites

More from CNN: "The death toll from the catastrophic wildfires in Maui has soared to 36, and officials worry the devastation could intensify as the infernos torch more of the ravaged island. The loss of life marked a staggering increase from earlier reports of six people killed. While survivors recall harrowing escapes by car or boat, many residents who fled still don't know whether their homes and businesses have been reduced to ashes."

Europe Is Hiring Fewer Firefighters but Facing More Wildfires Than Ever

More from Gizmodo: "Europe has been on fire this summer, but the number of firefighters available to address blazes around the continent has been on the decline. There were a little under 360,000 firefighters in the European Union last year, a 2,800-person decline from the number of firefighters in 2021, according to a recent statement from the European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC), citing data from Eurostat. Especially vulnerable countries like France saw a 12% decline in firefighters available. The drop comes in the wake of southwestern France enduring an especially devastating wildfire that prompted the evacuation of more than 1,000 in September 2022. Portugal saw a more than 21% decline from 2021 and 2022."

Perseid meteor shower 2023: When, where & how to see it

More from Space.com: "The Perseid meteor shower (also known as the Perseids) is active every year from mid-July to late August. This year the shower will peak around the night of Aug. 12 and before dawn on Aug.13, 2023, according to the science site Royal Museums Greenwich. 2023 will be a good year for the Perseids as the moon will only be 10% illuminated. The Perseids are caused by Earth passing through debris — bits of ice and rock — left behind by Comet Swift-Tuttle which last passed close to Earth in 1992. The Perseids peak when Earth passes through the densest and dustiest area on Aug. 11-12. Years without moonlight see higher rates of meteors per hour, and in outburst years (such as in 2016) the rate can be between 150-200 meteors an hour."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day!

- D.J. Kayser