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December Summary So Far
Weather conditions in the Twin Cities through the first week and a half of December have been pretty warm and dry with minimal snowfall. With temperatures running nearly +7.5F above average through the first 10 days of the month, we're currently sitting at the 14th warmest start to any December on record. We're also -2.4" below normal snowfall for the month. We still have a little more than 2 weeks left of the month, but if we fail to see any additional snow this month (which is entirely possible), this would be the 8th least snowy December on record.
Seasonal Snowfall So Far
The Twin Cities has only seen 4.5" of snow this season, which is nearly -7" below normal snowfall, which is the 47th least snowy start to any season on record. With only 4.4" of snow in Duluth, they are nearly -19" below normal snowfall and good enough for the 14th least snowy start to any season on record. Marquette, MI is more than -30" below normal snowfall and currently sitting at the 6th least snowy start to any season on record.
Seasonal Snowfall From Average
Twin Cities Average Snowfall
Depending on what 30-year average you look at, December is typically the 1st or 2nd snowiest month out of the year in the Twin Cities. If you look at the last 30 years 1993-2022, December averages 12.7" of snow and is the snowiest month of the year, followed by January with nearly 11" of snow.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Tuesday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Tuesday, December 12th will be dry and quiet with temperatures warming into the upper 20s by the afternoon, which will be at or just slightly below average for this time of the year. WNW winds will be a little breezy behind a cool front that moved through late yesterday. This should help to mix the atmosphere a little, meaning more sunshine is expected (finally) after a few cloudy days.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
Temperatures in the Twin Cities will start in the low 20s in the morning and will warm into the upper 20s by the afternoon under dry and sunnier skies. WNW wind gusts will be around 20mph to 25mph, which keep feels like temps hovering in the 10s for much of the day. Bundle up!
Weather Outlook For Tuesday
The weather outlook for Tuesday will warm into the 20s across the state, which will be at or slightly below average for this time of the year. Skies will finally be a little brighter after a few cloudier days, but it will be chillier than what we've had as of late.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis will be chilly on Tuesday with readings running a little below average for mid-December. We'll see quite a bump by the 2nd half of the week with highs warming into the 40s once again, which will be nearly +15F above average.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook for Minneapolis over the next 7 days will be pretty warm with a string of 40s developing late week and into the weekend ahead. There could be a light rain/snow mix across parts of northern Minnesota, but it doesn't look like much. We still don't see any signs of the "Big One" just yet. Enjoy the sublime December weather while you can. The other boot will drop at some point, it's just a matter of when.
The Extended Outlook Calls For Warmer Temps
According to NOAA's National Blend of Models, the extended forecast looks very warm through into mid-month. Highs will warm into the 40s by the end of the week and weekend ahead. Even next week, it doesn't look bad with highs hovering in the 30s and lower 40s.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temperatures continuing across much of the nation and especially in the Midwest.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
The 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook shows more active weather across parts of the Southern and Southwestern US and drier weather across the Northern and Eastern US.
Minnesotans Hopelessly Divided On El Nino
By Paul Douglas
"He's making a list, checking it twice. Winter on hold, El Nino keeping things nice." Is this nice? Once again we are divided. On my X feed Nancy writes "El Nino is awesome. I would date him." But Michael responds: "This is awful. Winter is the best part about Minnesota weather, especially Christmas snow. Snow haters should just move to Florida." Ouch. I asked Santa for a Space Laser for Christmas to rectify the problem. What can go wrong.
With all things weather very little will go wrong, at least on area highways, anytime soon. A little slush may fall near Duluth, possibly light rain in the metro Friday. Otherwise expect a brisk day today with 20s for highs, but 40s return Thursday into most of next week.
In fact, long range models keep daytime highs close to 40F through New Year's Day. Odds increasingly favor a brown Christmas for most of Minnesota.
Payback for 90.3" snow last winter? Perhaps. It's the strongest El Nino signal I can recall since 1998. More Pacific than Arctic into early January. Whew.
Extended Forecast
TUESDAY: Partly sunny, brisk. Winds: NW 10-20. High 29.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and quiet. Winds: W 5-10. Low: 22.
WEDNESDAY: Blue sky, a bit milder. Winds: SW 8-13. High 39.
THURSDAY: Mild sunshine, breezy. Winds: SW 10-20. Wake-up: 29. High 46.
FRIDAY: A few light rain showers possible. Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 33. High 44.
SATURDAY: Clouds linger, a little slush up north. Winds: W 7-12. Wake-up: 31. High 40.
SUNDAY: More sunshine, quiet. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 30. High 41.
MONDAY: Intervals of sun, still snow-free. Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 28. High: 39.
This Day in Weather History
December 12th
2004: A strong cold front pushes through Minnesota during the early morning hours. By dawn, winds turn to the northwest and increase to 25 to 40 MPH with gusts as high as 70 MPH. The windiest part of the day was from mid morning through mid afternoon when many locations suffered sustained winds in the 30 to 45 MPH range. The highest wind gusts recorded in southern Minnesota during this time included 71 MPH in Welch and 62 MPH near Albert Lea, St. James, Winthrop and Owatonna. Other notable wind gusts included 59 MPH at New Ulm, 58 MPH in Mankato, 55 MPH in St. Cloud and Morris, 54 MPH at Redwood Falls, and 52 MPH at the Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport. Scattered trees were downed and a few buildings received minor roof damage across the region.
1939: A December gale along the North Shore leads to winds clocked at 48 mph at Duluth.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
December 12th
Average High: 30F (Record: 53F set in 1883 & 1968)
Average Low: 16F (Record: -15F set in 1879)
Record Rainfall: 0.61" set in 1886
Record Snowfall: 4.6" set in 1941
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
December 12th
Sunrise: 7:41am
Sunset: 4:31pm
Hours of Daylight: ~8 hours & 50 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: 47 Seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 6 Hour & 53 Minutes
Moon Phase for December 12th at Midnight
0.7 Days Before New Moon
National High Temps on Tuesday
The weather outlook on Tuesday will be warmer than average across the Western US with temps running nearly +5F to +10F above average. Meanwhile, it'll be a little cooler in the Midwest and Eastern US, but it won't last very long.
National Weather Outlook For Tuesday
The National Weather Outlook on Tuesday shows a little light rain/snow mix in the Great Lakes and Northeast with a steadier rain developing in the Southern US through midweek.
National Weather Outlook
The National Weather outlook through Wednesday looks a little more unsettled across the Southern US and around the Four-Corners Region. 1" to 3" of rain can't be ruled out across parts of Texas and Louisiana through the end of the week, which will help dent the drought for some. There will also be some heavy snow across parts of the Southern Rockies.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook shows heavier precipitation across the Southern US and the Gulf Coast States through the weekend. There could be some 1" to 3" tallies along with some thunder potential.
Extended Snowfall Outlook
According to the ECMWF weather model, heavy snows are in the forecast across the high elevations across New Mexico and Colorado. There could be a a little light snow across the Great Lakes and the Northeast, but much of the rest of the nation will be snow free.
Climate Stories
"Five popular foods and drinks that climate change could take from us"
Could you live without coffee? Drinking it is a ritual for many of us, including meteorologist Alexandra Steele. In this new video, she talks with experts who share how climate change is harming coffee and other crops around the world — and what we can do to protect our favorite foods and drinks.
See more from Yale Climate Connections HERE:
"What did we learn from 2023's destructive wildfires?"
"Destructive wildfires from Maui, Greece, and Canada made front-page news in the U.S. this year. But anyone who follows fire and climate news knows that large, often deadly, and uncontrollable fires are increasingly common throughout our warming world. Though the articles focus on wildfires in the western U.S. and Canada, their insights pertain to much of the globe. What today's wildfires are like "Why wildfires are at their deadliest in more than a century." Scott Dance, Washington Post. "The massive wildfires can be linked to fire hazards — drought, wind, human-caused climate change — that have accelerated over recent decades."
See more from Yale Climate Connections HERE:
"FORESTS WILL OFFER MAMMALS REFUGE AS CLIMATE WARMS"
"The findings show that North American mammals, including pumas, wolves, bears, rabbits, deer, and opossums consistently depend on forests and avoid cities, farms, and other human-dominated areas in hotter climes. In fact, mammals are, on average, 50% more likely to occupy forests than open habitats in hot regions. The opposite is true in the coldest regions. "Different populations of the same species respond differently to habitat based on where they are," says lead author Mahdieh Tourani, who conducted the study while a postdoctoral researcher at the University of California, Davis who is now an assistant professor of quantitative ecology at the University of Montana, Missoula. "Climate is mediating that difference." Tourani points to the eastern cottontail as an example. The study showed the common rabbit preferred forests in hotter areas while preferring human-dominated habitat, such as agricultural areas, in colder regions."
