Welcome to Kocet's Corner. Here we'll have some fun, though an accuratepresentation of the weather is my primary goal. I'll try to keep the hype to aminimum, and pretty much tell it like it is.The eastern part of the United States has been bombed by storms this month, andmost populations from Virginia to New England are crying uncle. Just look atthese numbers: Philadelphia 52 inches, Baltimore 50 inches, and Pittsburgh 48inches. In stark contrast, International Falls, Minn., has had only 6 inches ofsnow since Feb. 1.
Now, what does that tell you? Well, it indicates that the storm track has beenacross the southern tier of the country most of this month. The El Nino patternthat exists across the Pacific has a lot to do with this, but I'll avoid thedetails on that.
In regards to snow, I have a different take on things. I, like mostmeteorologists, do enjoy snowstorms. Wouldn't you know central Pennsylvania(where we are) has missed out on all the big ones. Our largest snowfall inState College was 13 inches back on the 5th. Now, that's quite a bit of snow,but it's a far cry from the 2 feet plus that fell in northern Virginia andMaryland during the same storm.
In the world of weather, there is no justice. Buy a powerful snow blower and itstops snowing... Light the grill and thunder starts to rumble... Buy floodinsurance and drought develops. Mother Nature likes to play. What are you goingto do?Okay, what do we have on the front burner this week? First, there is the stormthat will take a swipe at New England Sunday night and Monday. The interior ofNew England will get anywhere from 2 to 10 inches of snow from this thingdepending on distance from the coast as well as elevation. In addition, thecoastline will be hit with another round of strong winds that will gust over 50miles per hour.
The next potentially big-ticket item is a storm currently centered over NewMexico. The center will move to the western Gulf Monday, be over northernFlorida early Tuesday then will make the turn up the East Coast Tuesday nightand Wednesday.
The weather that occurs from Virginia to southern New England Tuesday night andWednesday totally depends on how close the storm tracks to the coast. If thecenter moves farther out, then not much will happen north of central Virginia.
However, a sharper turn toward the north will cause accumulating snow fromWashington to Boston.
I can't give you a definitive answer on this today. Why? Because computer modelinformation becomes less reliable with time. A small flaw in the first sixhours of a computer-generated forecast can magnify into a gross error four andfive days out.
Rest assured we'll know more about what the next storm will do by this timeMonday.
Story by AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist John Kocet.
