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This NFL season has been remarkably unpredictable, especially of late. Pete Rozelle is not rolling over in his grave. He is quite comfortable, knowing that his goal of achieving parity, of creating a league in which "Any Given Sunday'' is the operative marketing pitch, has worked better than he could have ever hoped.
Right? That's what you hear on TV every day — that NFL games are improbably improbable.
That sounds good, until you look at the standings, and at the quarterbacks who play for the team atop those standings.
Look past the veneer of unpredictability, and what you'll find is a tale as old as the play clock: The best teams have the best quarterbacks.
All eight division leaders have star franchise quarterbacks who have won, or may win, MVP awards, or at least receive votes this season. One, Tom Brady, may be the greatest quarterback of all time. Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes might be the best in the game right now. Lamar Jackson might be the greatest running quarterback ever.
They're all quarterbacks that pass the eye test, the leadership tests and the statistical tests.
Check out the NFL division leaders, then tell me this is a shocking season.
AFC East: Josh Allen and the Bills. Allen ranks seventh in total quarterback rating, or QBR, and fifth in passer rating. He's one of the best and most athletic quarterbacks in the game.
AFC North: The Ravens' Jackson is a former MVP who might be the greatest running quarterback in league history.
AFC South: Ryan Tannehill ranks eighth in QBR and is on an NFL-best six-game winning streak, even winning twice without star running back Derrick Henry. He's become one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks.
AFC West: Mahomes reasserted himself Sunday night and, even after slumping most of the season, ranks 10th in QBR and first in passer rating.
NFC East: Dak Prescott ranks ninth in QBR and may be on his way to an MVP award.
NFC North: Rodgers ranks sixth in QBR and remains great.
NFC South: Brady ranks third in QBR and remains great.
NFC West: Kyler Murray ranks fourth in QBR and, if he can get back to good health, will receive MVP votes.
Seven of the eight division leaders rank in the top 10 in QBR. The only division-leading quarterback who doesn't is Jackson, a former MVP who might be MVP again if he can lift the flawed Ravens into the playoffs.
The top two players in the top 10 of QBR this season are Matthew Stafford, whose Rams were 7-2 entering Monday Night Football, and injured Saints starter Jameis Winston, whose team was 5-2 before he got injured and has lost two straight without him.
For all of the factors that determine NFL success on a weekly basis, if you look at the standings it's obvious that success for each team — for better or worse — is tied to the success of its quarterback.
The "worst'' NFL team with a quarterback in the top 10 of QBR: The Los Angeles Chargers, who are 5-4 with Justin Herbert, who is talented but couldn't solve the Vikings' undermanned defense Sunday.
Here's where this analysis gets interesting for Vikings fans.
The No. 11 quarterback in QBR this season is Kirk Cousins.
Sunday, Cousins at least temporarily fixed his most prominent flaw. He willingly threw the ball downfield to his two most talented receivers, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, instead of settling for easy check-down passes.
The result: Jefferson and Thielen combined for 14 catches and 208 yards, including clutch catches on downfield throws on the Vikings' game-ending drive.
If Cousins had thrown check-down passes on that drive, the Vikings would have wound up punting, and they might be 3-6 today, needing a victory over Green Bay to remain in contention.
Cousins is 33. He's been an NFL starter for more than seven seasons. You would think that dramatic change or significant improvement at this stage of his career would be unlikely.
But if he's willing to use his accuracy to target excellent receivers downfield, the Vikings' offense might become the powerhouse it should be, and Cousins and the Vikings may soon be chasing something better than the NFC's seventh seed.
In the NFL, you are your quarterback. Cousins still has time to make that sound like a good thing for the Vikings.
