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Snow Comparison 2023 vs 2022
Nationally, there hasn't been as much snow this year as there was at this time last year. Close to home, we certainly haven't had as much snow. Last year, Minneapolis had already had 5" of snow, while this year, we've only seen 2.7" of snow. Note that we have not yet had any measurable snowfall during the month of November. If we don't see any snow this month, this will be the first time we haven't had any snow during the month of November. However, it does look like we'll see a little on Sunday.
Weather Outlook Through The Weekend
The weather outlook across the region through the upcoming weekend shows a little light snow potential on Sunday. It doesn't look like much, but it will be our first real chance at seeing some snowfall potential this month. How about that.
Weekend Snowfall Potential
Here's the snowfall potential through the weekend. It doesn't look like much, but some areas could see a light coating and possibly up to 1" in spots. The best potential for accumulations will be in the southeastern part of the state and also across the northern part of the state.
Warmer & Drier Start to November So Far
Despite being chillier than average earlier this month, temperatures have been quite a bit warmer than average as of late. That being said, the average temperature in the Twin Cities is nearly +5.7F above average, which is the 4th warmest start to any November on record. Precipitation running nearly -1.25" below average, which is tied for the driest start to any November on record. We also haven't had any snow, which currently the least snowy November ever on record.
Twin Cities Average Snowfall
The 30-year average from 1993 to 2022 suggests that we typically see around 5.5" of snow during the month of November. The snowiest month tends to be in December with more than a foot falling. The 2nd snowiest month tends to be January with nearly 11" falling in the metro.
Drought Update
Heavy rains during the month of September have helped the drought situation quite a bit across the state. With that being said, nearly 18% of the state is still in a severe drought, which has improved from 34% nearly 3 months ago.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Saturday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Saturday, November 25th will be chillier than average by nearly -5F with highs struggling to get to the freezing mark under mostly cloudy skies. Feels like temps will only warm into the 10s and 20s with southwesterly winds around 10mph to 15mph.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
Temperatures in the Twin Cities will start in the low/mid 20s in the morning and will warm into the lower 30s by the afternoon, which will be nearly -5F below average for this time of the year. Skies will remain dry, but mostly cloudy with southwesterly winds around 10mph to 15mph.
Weather Outlook For Saturday
The weather outlook for Saturday will warm into the upper 20s and lower 30s across the region, which will generally be below average by around -5F. Clouds will be on the increase through the day as more unsettled weather moves into the region by Sunday.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows above average temperatures running chillier than average through early next week with highs only warming into the upper 20s and lower 30s. As we approach the 2nd half of next week, it looks like we'll see readings gradually warm back to above average levels once agian.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook for Minneapolis looks overall pretty quiet. We'll see some light snow on Sunday with temperature running below average through early next week. Highs warm close to 40F again during the middle part of the week, but we'll still be mostly dry and quiet.
The Extended Outlook Calls For Warmer Temps
According to NOAA's National Blend of Models, it'll be a little chilly over the next few days with readings running a little below normal. Note that overnight lows could dip into the 10s early next week as well. We'll see a gradual warming trend as we approach the end of the month and early December with a few 40s possible once again.
Atlantic Hurricane Season Winding Down
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th. November is typically a very quiet month, but there can still be storms. In fact, last year, Hurricane Nicole made landfall along the east coast of Florida.
Atlantic Outlook
According to NOAA's NHC, there is one lonely wave in the Central Atlantic that has a low probability of tropical formation over the next 7 days. Other than that, things look pretty quiet with only 5 days left of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Weather Outlook
Areas of rain and snow will continue across the Central and Eastern US through the weekend and early next week, which could cause a few travel headaches. A clipper diving through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes could bring a little light snow accumulations to those areas. Another storm could develop in the Central US next week with another round of decent rainfall for some.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temperatures returning to much of the nation, including the Midwest. The early part of December looks to start on a milder note that what we're seeing now.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
The 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook shows more active weather in place across the Western and Southern US. Meanwhile, folks across the Midwest look to stay a little quieter.
I'd Like A New Doppler For Christmas
By Paul Douglas
Is it normal to dream about cheese? I didn't think so either. It's from standing in front of the Doppler for 3 decades. I tried to install a Doppler on my roof but neighbors had other ideas, ones that involved pitchforks, so I ceased and desisted.
Dream on, Paul. Doppler is way too spendy, at least the fancy WSR-88D models at 160 National Weather Service sites around the US, including Chanhassen. Just up the street from Paisley Park. Tt's the tower that looks like a giant golf ball. That's the fiberglass "Radome" that protects the rotating antenna that seeks out precipitation and rotating T-storms that can spin up tornadoes. Oh, the cost to install a WSR-88D is about $10 million. Santa, you out there? Clouds may leak a little "snow" on our heads later today as a storm tracks to our south. A clipper squeezes outa little slush tomorrow. Maybe a half inch? Breaking. News.
I see very little snow, with a mild bias continuing. A few 40s in early December? Yep. A white Christmas? It may be a close call.
Extended Forecast
SATURDAY: Cloudy, few flakes? Winds: SW 8-13. High 32.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Winds: SW 5-10. Low: 25.
SUNDAY: Windy with snow showers. Coating? Winds: NW 15-30. High 34.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy, cold wind. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 20. High: 29.
TUESDAY: Clipper arrives with a little slush. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 21. High 33.
WEDNESDAY: Peeks of sun, flurries up north. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 28. High 38.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny, not so bad. Winds: W 7-12. Wake-up: 26. High 39.
FRIDAY: Pretty mellow for early December. Winds: N 8-13. Wake-up: 27. High 37.
This Day in Weather History
November 25th
1977: Record lows are set across central Minnesota with lows in the teens below zero. Montevideo had the coldest temperature of 18 degrees below zero along with Long Prairie at 16 degrees below zero.
1820: Ft. Snelling is in the middle of a three-day blizzard that would dump nine inches of snow.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
November 25th
Average High: 37F (Record: 62F set in 1914)
Average Low: 23F (Record: -18F set in 1880)
Record Rainfall: 0.97" set in 1896
Record Snowfall: 5.3" set in 1952
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
November 25th
Sunrise: 7:23am
Sunset: 4:36pm
Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 13 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: 1 Minutes & 54 Seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 6 Hour & 34 Minutes
Moon Phase for November 25th at Midnight
1.1 Days Until Full "Beaver" Moon
"Nov. 27 at 3:16 a.m. CST - Some accounts suggest the name Beaver Moon came from the fact that this moon signaled it was time to set beaver traps before the swamps freeze to ensure a supply of warm winter furs! Another interpretation suggests that the name Beaver Full Moon comes from the fact that the beavers are now active in their preparation for winter. Also called the Frosty Moon."
National High Temps on Saturday
The weather outlook on Saturday looks plenty chilly across the nation with readings running nearly -10F to -20F below average. The chilliest weather will be a long the Front Range where areas of heavy snow will continue.
National Weather Outlook For Saturday
The National Weather Outlook on Saturday shows unsettled weather across the Central and Southern US. Areas of wintry precipitation will be found from the Front Range of the Rockies to the Midwest and Great Lakes. Areas of rain and thunder will be possible across the Southern US.
National Weather Outlook
The National Weather outlook through Sunday looks unsettled across the Central US with areas of rain and snow, which could create some travel headaches through the weekend and into early next week.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook shows decent rainfall potential across the Coastal Bend of Texas with some showers and storms expected. There also appears to be some decent precipitation potential in the Northeast.
Extended Snowfall Outlook
According to the ECMWF weather model, areas of heavy snow in the Central Rockies. It also looks like we'll see some of our first decent lake effect snows of the season as well.
Climate Stories
"2023 Just Notched Its Most Ominous Climate Record Yet"
"On Friday, November 17, 2023, the Earth appeared to have crossed a threshold into new climatic territory. That day was the first that the average air temperature near the surface of the Earth was 2 degrees Celsius warmer than preindustrial levels. Saturday was the second. The planet has been this hot before, but never in the era relevant to modern humanity. For those two days, we were the furthest we have ever been from the average climate of 1850–1900, the time just before humans began industrializing in earnest and adding large quantities of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. We are now a large margin away from the climate in which nearly all of human history has played out."
See more from The Atlantic HERE:
"What the U.S.-China Agreement Means for Greenhouse Gas Emissions"
"The climate deal announced by China and the United States on Tuesday shows that the world's two largest emitters agree on the need for more renewables. But whether they can meet their climate targets will depend in large part on how they plan to address fossil fuels. The joint statement — emerging from four days of talks between U.S. climate envoy John Kerry and his Chinese counterpart Xie Zhenhua — signals that the two sides are reengaging ahead of global climate talks in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, this month, despite continued tensions in their bilateral relationship. The steps outlined in the agreement, while small, could mark a turning point in international climate efforts. Falling carbon emissions in the U.S. and Europe in recent years have been offset by an increase in greenhouse gases from Asian countries. A fall in Chinese emissions could supercharge global efforts to curb planet-warming pollution."
See more from Scientific American HERE:
"Record heat disproportionately hurts communities of color. Unprecedented climate justice federal funding could help"
"It was a cruel summer, but not in the record-shattering way that Taylor Swift intended when she wrote the song and launched a blockbuster tour. Summer 2023 shattered heat records around the globe, and climate experts predict that 2023 is on track to be the hottest year in 174 years of temperature records. Extreme heat is the No. 1 climate-related cause of death in the U.S. Race and location also matter in determining how much things are heating up. On National Public Radio's Code Switch, journalist Shereen Marisol Meraji pointed out: "Mother Nature may not discriminate, but people do," succinctly describing the disproportionate impact of extreme and urban heat on communities of color as a result of federally mandated racist housing policies. The good news is with new laws focused on climate initiatives and infrastructure, billions of dollars of federal funding are available for climate resiliency projects. To determine which communities face the highest levels of environmental and climate change-related risk and health issues, and thus qualify for this historic funding, the federal government developed an interactive mapping Climate and Economic Justice Screening Tool."
See more from Yale Climate Connections HERE: