Ten months ago, after a disastrous military offensive designed to destroy the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) led to the destruction of much of the Ethiopian Army in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia, the government of Ethiopia declared a unilateral cease-fire, with the stated purpose of allowing desperately needed humanitarian aid to be delivered. The international community expressed its hope for peace.
Instead, the Ethiopian government imposed a blockade around Tigray, and rearmed itself to conduct a series of counteroffensives against the resurgent TPLF.
To date, researchers estimate that up to 500,000 Ethiopians have died from war and famine in the 17 months since Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his partner in war, Eritrean dictator Isaias Afwerki, plotted to turn a political conflict with the TPLF into a genocidal military conflict.
Late last month, the Ethiopian government once again issued a statement declaring "an indefinite humanitarian truce" to ensure that those in need are able to receive aid. And once again, the international community expressed its hope for peace.
Since the announcement, only two small truck convoys have carried aid into territory controlled by Tigray, and it remains unclear how much more will follow, or when. More ominously, busloads of Ethiopian troops have been spotted heading north through the Amhara and Afar regions to Tigray, their purpose unknown.
There is every reason to doubt the sincerity of a government that has consistently mischaracterized its own actions. Yet perhaps those very missteps unintentionally open the door to diplomacy to stop the bloodshed.
The unity of purpose behind efforts of the U.S. and Europe to stop one dictator, Vladimir Putin, from killing innocent civilians in Ukraine may translate into a renewed commitment to stop Abiy Ahmed and Isaias Afwerki from doing the same in Ethiopia.
The staggering costs of the Ethiopian war are becoming ever more apparent. The inexcusable brutality of the Ethiopian assault on Tigrayans was on display yet again in a March video showing Ethiopian armed forces and other armed groups burning a Tigrayan civilian alive, triggering protests in Ethiopia and other countries. The economic cost now runs in to the billions.
Following U.S. sanctions in September and the November decision to suspend Ethiopia from the African Growth and Opportunity Act, new legislation making its way through Congress would sanction individuals as well as suspend U.S. security and financial assistance to Ethiopia and Eritrea.
Even the United Nations is ambling forward, rejecting Ethiopia's bid to deny funding for an investigation of human rights violations in the war.
What's needed now is a concerted effort by the African Union (or some combination of African leaders), Europe and the U.S. to convince Abiy that the latest humanitarian truce must include an end to drone strikes, mass detentions of Tigrayan civilians, and the use of military force in Tigray.
To start, Congress should pass the new sanctions legislation, and President Joe Biden should immediately apply those sanctions to anyone obstructing humanitarian aid or committing other atrocities. Washington should also make clear that those sanctions and the suspension of benefits to Ethiopia under the African Growth and Opportunity Act could be strengthened.
Second, the U.S., U.K., and the European Union should work to curtail arms sales to Ethiopia, along with financing and support to individuals responsible for continuing this war. America and Europe should call for an immediate halt to the sale and supply of foreign drones to Ethiopia from Turkey and the UAE on humanitarian grounds, as the indiscriminate killing of civilians is now obvious for all to see.
Third, the international community must take advantage of the "humanitarian truce" with African partners to provide food and medicine to Ethiopians in desperate need.
Fourth, Washington, Europe and the African Union should make clear that if the fighting resumes on the ground or from the air, support for Ethiopia on a range of domestic and international issues will not be possible, including with Sudan and Egypt and the dispute over the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance dam.
Already, the Ethiopian war has been horrific, impacting millions. Prime Minister Abiy must be convinced that another invasion of Tigray cannot be launched or won, and that he must support a genuinely inclusive Ethiopian-led national dialogue — including the TPLF — to address the future of Ethiopia. We owe it to the victims, and to ourselves, to act now.
Steve Andreasen was the White House National Security Council's staff director for defense policy and arms control from 1993 to 2001 and teaches at the Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs at the University of Minnesota.
