Paul Douglas On Weather
See more of the story

Weekend Outlook

A frontal boundary will slowly push through the region Friday with lingering showers and storms through the first half of the day. The PM hours of Friday look better and drier with beautiful fall-like weather settling in for the weekend with highs only warming into the low/mid 70s. Enjoy!

Fall Color Update

Here's a picture from the MN DNR Park Staff at Lake Bronson State Park. It looks like fall colors are already starting to show with 25%-50% leaf color showing up. With cooler nights ahead, the fall color palette will begin to rear its head with more vigor. It won't be long now!

Fall Color Update

According to the MN DNR, there is already a little fall color showing up across parts of the state. Note that peak color typically arrives along the International border around mid to late September. It could be a little later this year, but cooler nights ahead will help to get the fall colors underway.

Typical Peak Fall Color

According to the MN DNR, typical peak color arrives across the international border mid to late September with peak color arriving near the Twin Cities late September to mid October. It won't be long now and you'll be able to find your favorite fall color in a backyard near you.

Billion Dollar Disasters So Far in 2023

"2023 in Progress… In 2023 (as of September 11), there have been 23 confirmed weather/climate disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion each to affect United States. These events included 2 flooding events, 18 severe storm events, 1 tropical cyclone event, 1 wildfire event, and 1 winter storm event. Overall, these events resulted in the deaths of 253 people and had significant economic effects on the areas impacted. The 1980–2022 annual average is 8.1 events (CPI-adjusted); the annual average for the most recent 5 years (2018–2022) is 18.0 events (CPI-adjusted)."

See more from NOAA HERE:

Comet Nishimura in the Night Sky

"Can you still see new comet Nishimura? Early risers might have had their the final opportunities over this past week to glimpse comet C/2023 P1 (Nishimura). The comet has been visible toward the east-northeastern horizon shortly before sunrise. But the comet is approaching the sun in its orbit – and in our sky – and so, although it's continuing to get brighter, it's also getting closer to the sunrise. After about Sunday, September 10, 2023, Comet Nishimura is going be increasingly difficult to observe. Comet Nishimura – that great icy ball moving through space, which so many are now capturing on film – will be closest to Earth on September 12. And it'll be closest to the sun (perihelion) on September 17. It has been displaying a long, beautiful tail! But its long tail shows up only on long-exposure images. Still … wow!"

See more from Earth Sky HERE

Hurricane Lee in the Atlantic

Here's a look at Hurricane Lee from Thursday, which looked a little more disorganized than it was just a few days ago when it was still a major storms. As of late Thursday afternoon, Lee was still a category 1 storms 85mph sustained winds.

Tracking Lee

According to NOAA's NHC, the track for Lee keeps shows a gradual weakening phase through the end of the week as it slides north of Bermuda into Friday. Lee will approach the Northeastern US as a potential hurricane with fairly significant impacts along the coast before raining itself out as a Tropical Storm in Eastern Canada. Tropical Alerts have been posted from Southeastern Massachusetts to Nova Scotia.

Storm Surge Forecast

According to NOAA, there could be a peak storm surge up to 3ft along the New England coast through the end of the week with significant offshore waves and dangerous rip currents along the coast.

September 10th: Peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th, but did you know that the typical peak is September 10th? This is when the Atlantic Basin has had the most hurricanes and named storms since records began. This is also when weather conditions are at optimal levels for these types of storms.

6th Most 90F Days on Record at MSP

It has been a hot summer with (32) days with highs at 90F degrees or warmer. This is the 6th most number of 90F degree days on record, the most recent being 1988 when there were 44 days.

Number of 90F Days So Far This Year

Here's a list of all the 90F degree days that we've seen so far this year. The hottest days, were back to back on August 22nd and 23rd, when the MSP hit 98F and heat index values peaking around 110F to 120F around the metro. We also hit 98F on September 4th, but the dewpoint wasn't as high, so the heat index wasn't as intense. Uffda!

Average Number of 90F Days At MSP

Looking at the last 30 years, the average number of 90F days at the MSP Airport is (14). July is the hottest month with an average of (6) 90F days. This year we've had (23) 90F days, last year we had (18) days in the 90s and in 2021 there were (27) days in the 90s. The most number of 90F days in any single year was (44) set in 1988.

90 Day Precipitation Anomaly

On average, the wettest time of the year is in the summer, with the months of June, July and August seeing nearly 13" of rain at the MSP Airport. If we take a look at the 90 day precipitation anomaly, which dates back to early to mid June, some locations are nearly -3.00" to nearly -7.00" below average (in red/pink). Note that some locations across southeastern Minnesota are nearly -8.00" to -10.00" below average.

Drought Update

Drought continues and expanded from last week with a little more than 1% of the state in an Exceptional drought. Nearly 19% of the state is now in an Extreme drought, while more than 60% of the state is in a Severe drought, which includes much of the Twin Cities metro. 3 months ago, 77% of the state was considered abnormally dry, with nearly 19% in a moderate drought, so things have certainly gotten much worse since then.

Weather Outlook For Friday

The weather outlook on Friday shows temps warming into the 70s across much of the state, which will be pretty close to average for this time of the year. There could be a few lingering t-showers across central and southeastern Minnesota through midday or early afternoon, but things should be drier and quieter later in the day.

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Friday

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Friday, September 15th could be a little unsettled with a few spotty t-showers developing. Rainfall amounts won't amount to much, but there could be a brief heavy downpour in a few random thunderstorms.

Meteograms For Minneapolis

Weather conditions for Minneapolis on Friday will be a little unsettled through the day with a few lingering t-showers here and there. Temps will start in the lower 60s in the morning and will top out in the mid 70s in the afternoon with southwesterly winds around 15mph.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows near average temperatures through the upcoming weekend with readings warming into the low/mid 70s. Next week looks a little warmer as temps warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s, which would be nearly +5F to +10F above average for mid September.

Comfy Dewpoints into Early September

The max dewpoint forecast for Minneapolis over the next several days shows very comfortable and fall-like readings in the 50s. The max dewpoint could be near 60F earlier in the day thanks to a slight increase in the rain potential.

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The 7 day extended weather outlook through mid month shows near normal temps in the low/mid 70s through the weekend. It gets a little warmer next week with a few days approaching 80F or better.

A Slight Temperature Bump Next Week

According to NOAA's National Blend of Models, temperatures over the next several days will be quite nice with readings generally in the 70s through mid month. Next week looks a little warmer with highs approaching the low/mid 80s for a few days. It doesn't appear to last long, though, as readings fall back into the low/mid 70s by the last full weekend of September.

Weather Outlook

The weather outlook in the Midwest through next weekend looks fairly subdued through the weekend and much of next week. It looks mostly dry and quiet until next weekend when a potential storms system arrives with a better rain chance. Stay tuned for more...

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows Warmer than average temperatures along and east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, cooler than average temperatures will be found in the Western & Southwestern US.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, more active weather will develop across the Midwest from the 22nd to the 28th.

Nothing Democratic About Air Conditioning
BY Paul Douglas

Alanis Morissette would be proud of the irony: the electricity needed to power air conditioning depends on the combustion of fossil fuels, which triggers more greenhouse gas warming, and a need for even more air conditioning. We are chasing our tails.

In the US roughly 70% of homes have central air conditioning, but 10% lack any cooling. The rest rely on window AC units. Lack of cooling falls disproportionately on the poor and disadvantaged. And not everyone has easy access to a cool Minnesota lake.

NOAA says August was the hottest on record, in fact the entire summer was the hottest ever recorded, worldwide. Some of that simmering warmth will bleed deep into autumn. Next week brings a run of 80s with an outside shot at 90F.

Lonely showers this morning will give way to brightening skies by afternoon. Expect more clouds than sun Saturday with a cool breeze; Sunday the sunnier day of the weekend.

Parts of northern Minnesota saw frost this week, but here in the metro 32F may not come until mid-October.

Extended Forecast

FRIDAY: AM shower, then drier. Winds: W 8-13. High 74.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Drying trend. Partly cloudy. Winds: W 5-10. Low: 56.

SATURDAY: More clouds than sun, cool breeze. Winds: NW 10-15. High: 74.

SUNDAY: More sunshine, less wind. Winds: N 8-13. Wake-up: 52. High: 74.

MONDAY: Sunny and warmer. Winds: S 7-12. Wake-up: 53. High: 80.

TUESDAY: Early thunder? Feels like mid-August. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 59. High: 86.

WEDNESDAY: Sticky with a stray T-storm. Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 63. High 85.

THURSDAY: Sunny summer warmth. Winds: S 15-25. Wake-up: 66. High 87.

This Day in Weather History

September 13th

1939: Minneapolis experiences a daily record high of 98.

1916: St. Paul receives their earliest recorded snowfall.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

September 15th

Average High: 74F (Record: 98F set in 1939)

Average Low: 55F (Record: 36F set in 1964, 2007, 2011)

Record Rainfall: 2.59" set in 1992

Record Snowfall: Trace Set in 1916

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

September 15th

Sunrise: 6:51am

Sunset: 7:24pm

Hours of Daylight: ~12 hours & 32 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: 3 Minutes & 5 Seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 3 Hour & 5 Minutes

Moon Phase for September 15th at Midnight

1.2 Days Since New Moon

National High Temps on Friday

Temperatures on Friday will be a little cooler than average across the Central US and especially along the Front Range, where Denver, CO may only warm into the mid 60s, which will be nearly -15F below average for this time of the year. The Pacific Northwest will be a little toasty with highs approaching 90F in Portland, OR. The Northern New England States will be dealing with Lee as it approaches from the South.

National Weather Friday

The weather outlook on Friday will be unsettled from the Midwest to the Central and Southern Plains. There could be some decent rain tallies across parts of Texas through the end of the week. Meanwhile, Lee will impacts parts of the Northeast with strong winds, heavy rainfall, a storm surge and rip current potential.

National Weather Outlook

The weather outlook through Saturday shows areas of unsettled weather across the Central and Southern US with the heaviest rains fading across Texas on Saturday. Lee will impact the Northeast through Saturday with improving conditions on Sunday and into early next week.

Extended Precipitation Outlook

The extended precipitation outlook shows areas of heavy rainfall across the Central and Southern Plains. There will also be areas of heavy rain across the Northeast from Hurricane Lee. The Southeast also looks interesting as areas of heavy rainfall will be possible there.

Climate Stories

"Why your perception of climate change threats might depend on where you live"

"Our planet has just seen its hottest month on record, with many places on fire or flooded. Few events can be directly attributed to climate change, but the likelihood of extreme weather keeps increasing—and people are noticing. However, not everyone notices or feels this threat to the same extent. Our new research published in PLOS ONE shows there is a contrast in how people in different locations perceive this threat, largely along urban and rural lines. Cities are affected in different ways than rural areas. For instance, there are far fewer natural surfaces in urban areas, which creates problems with rainwater drainage, increased temperatures and decreased evaporation. Cities have been said to spearhead climate action, and climate activism such as the environmental movement inspired by Greta Thunberg, Fridays for Future, evolved primarily in cities. On the other hand, people living in rural areas often identify strongly with the place in which they live. They are close to nature and can feel passionately about it, especially if their livelihood depends on that environment."

See more from HERE:

"Cyclone That Devastated Libya Is Latest Extreme Event With Some Hallmarks of Climate Change"

The Mediterranean storm that dumped torrential rain on the Libyan coast, setting off flooding that's believed to have killed thousands of people, is the latest extreme weather event to carry some of the hallmarks of climate change, scientists say. Daniel — dubbed a "medicane" for its hurricane-like characteristics – drew enormous energy from extremely warm sea water. And a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor that can fall as rain, experts said. It's difficult to attribute a single weather event to climate change, "but we know there are factors that could be at play" with storms like Daniel that make it more likely, said Kristen Corbosiero, an atmospheric scientist at the University at Albany. Medicanes form once or twice a year in the Mediterranean, and are most common from September to January. They're not generally true hurricanes, but can reach hurricane strength on rare occasions, said Simon Mason, chief climate scientist at the Columbia Climate School's International Research Institute for Climate and Society. Daniel formed as a low-pressure weather system more than a week ago and became blocked by a high-pressure system, dumping extreme amounts of rain on Greece and surrounding areas before inundating Libya.

See more from US News HERE:

"Fall Snow Levels Can Predict A Season's Total Snowpack In Some US Western States"

"Spring break can be a good time for ski trips — the days are longer and a little warmer. But if people are booking their spring skiing trips the fall before, it's hard to know which areas will have the best snow coverage later in the season. Researchers who study water resources also want to know how much snow an area will get in a season. The total snowpack gives scientists a better idea of how much water will be available for hydropower, irrigation and drinking later in the year. A team led by researchers at the University of Washington has found that in some western states, the amount of snow already on the ground by the end of December is a good predictor of how much total snow that area will get. This prediction works well in northern states such as Alaska, Oregon and Washington, as well as in parts of Utah, Wyoming and Colorado. Other states, such as California, Nevada, New Mexico and Arizona, were harder to predict — these regions either had too much variation in their weather patterns and/or got the most of their precipitation after December."

See more from Eurasia Review HERE:

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX