Paul Douglas On Weather
See more of the story

Air Quality Alert Continues

We continue to track poor air quality, as conditions continue to be favorable to produce ozone with sunny skies, warm temperatures, and low humidity values. Air Quality Alerts continue to be in place through Thursday across Minnesota and through Friday across Wisconsin.


Hot, Hazy Thursday - Storms In Western/Northern Minnesota

Hot, hazy sunshine continues in the metro as we see the ninth 90F degree day of the year on Thursday. Morning temperatures start off in the lower 70s with highs in the low 90s.

As we look statewide, we will watch the chance of some showers and thunderstorms across northern and western Minnesota - more on that in just a moment. Otherwise, hot and hazy sunshine continues the farther southeast you go. Highs range from the 70s in northwest Minnesota and in far northeast Minnesota to the 90s across parts of central and southern Minnesota.


Much Needed Rain On The Way?

Forecast loop from 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM Monday.

As we head through the end of the week into the weekend, we are tracking a system that'll slowly be working through the region - hopefully bringing some much-needed rain. While most of the rain on Thursday is across western Minnesota, this will spread across more of the state as we head into Friday and the weekend. The best chances of rain here in the metro will be late Saturday into Sunday.

Forecast rain through Monday

At least 2-4" of rain could fall across portions of northern Minnesota as we head through the weekend, with at least an inch expected as far south as the Rochester and Marshall areas.

We will also watch the chance of severe weather as we head through Saturday afternoon and evening, with the equivalent of a Slight Risk (threat level 2/5) in place across parts of southwestern Minnesota including Mankato, Marshall, and Worthington. All severe threats (hail, wind, and a few tornadoes) will be possible.


Storms This Weekend

So while it looks like we remain dry in the metro Friday with another shot at 90F, we will watch those storm chances as we head into the weekend. Upper 80s are expected for highs Saturday with storm chances on the increase later in the day, meanwhile, temperatures take a step back to the upper 70s Sunday with continued shower/storm potential.


Growing Concern About "Flash Droughts"
By Paul Douglas

What's on today's weather menu? Heat, smog, smoke and a good chance of another "flash drought". Unlike traditional droughts that take months or years to unfold, flash droughts come on suddenly, in the span of weeks. A new research study at "Science" says flash droughts are developing faster and happening with greater frequency in a warming climate. This summer may be the rule, and not the exception.

There I go, burying the lede again, which I am perfectly capable of. Friday through Sunday brings the best chance of showers and T-storms we've had in weeks. I doubt it will be enough rain to pull us out of drought, but at this point any moisture will help.

Today should be the 9th day of 90-degree heat so far this summer season at MSP. During an entire summer we see an average of 13 days of 90+. Yeah, a real summer.

A few storms may pop by Friday with strong to severe storms late Saturday, and soggy blobs on Doppler lingering into Sunday.

Next week looks a bit more comfortable with highs in the 80s. AOK.


Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

THURSDAY: Smoggy sun, still hot. Wake up 72. High 92. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind S 8-13 mph.

FRIDAY: Muggy sunshine with a late-day T-storm. Wake up 71. High 93. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind SW 8-13 mph.

SATURDAY: Numerous T-storms late, some severe? Wake up 71. High 89. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

SUNDAY: Lingering showers, T-storms. Wake up 68. High 76. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

MONDAY: Clearing with a stiff breeze. Wake up 64. High 82. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind N 15-25 mph.

TUESDAY: Lukewarm sun, stray storm late? Wake up 63. High 85. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind S 5-10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Sticky with a few storms nearby. Wake up 68. High 88. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SE 10-20 mph.


Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
June 22nd

*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 36 minutes, and 48 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 2 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 15 Hours Of Sunlight? July 24th (14 hours, 59 minutes, 22 seconds)
*When Are Sunrises After 6 AM? August 2nd (6:00 AM)
*Latest Sunsets Of The Year: June 21st-July 2nd (9:03 PM)

This Day in Weather History
June 22nd

1988: Smoke fills the sky across much of Minnesota due to wild fires during the '88 drought.

1919: The 2nd deadliest tornado in Minnesota history hits Fergus Falls, killing 59 people. Like the #1 killer tornado for Minnesota (73 fatalities in St. Cloud and Sauk Rapids on 4/14/1886), it struck on a weekend.

1917: Grand Meadow has an intense downpour, and 4.98 inches of rain on this date. Corn crops are badly damaged by the heavy rain/flooding.


National Weather Forecast

As we slide into Thursday, showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the Plains, Upper Midwest, and parts of the southern and eastern United States due to a couple of frontal boundaries in place. Storms across the High Plains could be on the strong side, including tornadoes and very large hail. Some storms will also be possible out west due to an area of low pressure. While the heat subsides just a touch in Texas, several record highs are still possible - and the heat will expand across this region once again into the weekend.

Very heavy rainfall will continue to be possible through the end of the week across portions of the Plains as well as in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, where at least 3" of rain could fall. Some of the heaviest will be in parts of Florida, where 5"+ will be possible.


'Unprecedented' ocean heat wave could linger through fall

More from NBC News: "An intense marine heat wave that has fueled record-warm sea surface temperatures in the world's oceans in recent months could linger well into the fall, according to an experimental forecast produced by scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Researchers with the agency's Physical Sciences Laboratory said unusually warm conditions in the North Atlantic are all but certain to last all summer, with an up to 90% chance that the marine heat wave will persist through November. Members of the research team are set to host a public discussion later this week to unveil the new forecast and talk about its implications."

Groundbreaking youth-led climate trial comes to an end in Montana

More from The Guardian: "A groundbreaking climate trial came to an early close on Tuesday as lawyers on each side presented a very different picture of who can be held responsible for the climate crisis. Attorneys representing the lawsuit's young challengers said Montana officials and agencies must be held accountable for exacerbating the crisis, and thereby violating the plaintiffs' state constitutional rights. But the defense argued that the climate crisis is a global problem, and that if Montana is contributing to it, plaintiffs should work to change that through the legislature. The trial for Held v Montana began in the state's first judicial district court in the capital city of Helena last week, marking the first constitutional climate trial in US history. A ruling will now follow from Judge Kathy Seeley, who has been hearing the case, with expectations that this could take several weeks to emerge."

Peru is enduring its worst dengue outbreak ever. Is El Niño making it worse?

More from the CBC: "Peru is battling the worst dengue outbreak in its recorded history, with more than 140,000 registered cases so far this year, and more than 200 people believed to have died from complications related to infections. Dengue is prevalent throughout Peru, particularly in lower altitudes, though cases typically drop off as the weather becomes drier. But not this year. The rainy weather that allows mosquito populations to breed — in pools, puddles and any standing water — hasn't let up thanks, in part, to El Niño — the natural, recurring phenomenon that brings warm conditions to the eastern Pacific Ocean and disrupts weather patterns around the world."


Follow me on:

Thanks for checking in and have a great day!

- D.J. Kayser