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Minimal Snow Depth
We've had minimal snowfall across the region through the end of November and thanks to warmer than average temperatures for much of the month, there is little snow on the ground. There might be a little snow late weekend or early next week, but it appears that we'll end the month of November and start December on a mostly brown note across the region.
Snowfall Departure From Average This Season
Our average snowfall in the Twin Cities through the months of October and November is typically around 6" to 7". Note that the Twin Cities has only had 3.2" so far this season (since July 1st), which is nearly -3.5" below average. Duluth has only had 3.0" of snow this season, which is more than -12.0" below average and the 24th least snowy start to any season on record.
Snowfall So Far This Season
It has been a pretty slow start to the snow season across the Midwest. Could this be a sign of El Nino? Perhaps. The storm track in an El Nino season is typically across the Southern US, while milder temperatures reside across the Midwest, both of which have been observed over the last several weeks. There are a lot of negative numbers across the region with the biggest deficits showing up in Duluth, MN (24th least snowy start to any season on record) and also in Marquette, which is nearly -20.0" below average (6th least snowy start to any season on record).
Warmer & Drier Start to November So Far
Despite being chillier as of late, this has been a fairly warm month with the average temperature in the Twin Cities running nearly +4.0F above average, which is on track for the 11th warmest November on record. Precipitation is running nearly -1.43" below average, which is on track for the 2nd driest November on record. We did manage to pick up close to 0.5" of snow at the MSP Airport this month, which will likely tie for the 15th least snowy November on record.
Twin Cities Average Snowfall
The 30-year average from 1993 to 2022 suggests that we typically see around 5.5" of snow during the month of November. The snowiest month tends to be in December with more than a foot falling. The 2nd snowiest month tends to be January with nearly 11" falling in the metro.
Weather Outlook Through Next Monday
Here's the weather outlook through next Monday, which shows very minimal precipitation over the next few days. There could be a little light snow across Southeastern Minnesota late weekend. There could be another light clipper that moves through the region on Monday with additional light snow accumulations. Stay tuned.
Snowfall Potential Through Next Monday
Here's a very early look at snow chances across the region through next Monday, which shows very light accumulations possible. The heaviest could be found along the Arrowhead of Minnesota, where up to a few inches of slush can't be ruled out. Stay tuned...
Drought Update
Heavy rains during the month of September have helped the drought situation quite a bit across the state. With that being said, nearly 18% of the state is still in a severe drought, which has improved from 34% nearly 3 months ago.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Wednesday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Wednesday, November 29th will be quite a bit warmer than it has been over the last few days with highs approaching the lower 40s, which will be nearly +5F to +10F above average for this time of the year. Skies will be mostly dry and quiet as well.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
Temperatures in the Twin Cities will start in the mid 20s in the morning and will warm into the upper 30s to lower 40s by the afternoon under mostly sunny skies. West to southwesterly winds around 15mph to 20mph will make it feel just a touch cooler, but it will be an overall better and warmer day.
Hourly Feels Like Temps For Wednesday
Here are the hourly feels like temps for Minneapolis on Wednesday. It'll be a bit chilly in the morning with readings in the mid 10s, but it'll feel more like the mid 30s by the afternoon thanks to a breezy southwesterly wind.
Weather Outlook For Wednesday
The weather outlook for Wednesday will warm into the 30s and 40s across the region, which will be nearly +5F to +15F above average for this time of the year. A few locations in far southwestern Minnesota could warm close to 50F!
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis will be warmer than average with readings warming into the mid/upper 30s and possibly the lower 40s, which will be a little bit above average for the end of November and early December.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook for Minneapolis looks overall pretty quiet. We'll see mostly dry and quiet conditions through the end of the month and the start of December on Friday. Temps will also be a little warmer with a light snow chance developing late weekend and into early next week. Stay tuned...
The Extended Outlook Calls For Warmer Temps
According to NOAA's National Blend of Models, it won't be nearly as chilly as it has been with readings in the 30s and 40s over the next several days. This will be quite a bit warmer than average, especially if we hang onto these readings during the 2nd week of December. Note that our average high dips to the freezing mark (32F) by December 6th and will be below 30F by December 13th.
Weather Outlook
Here's the National weather outlook through next Monday shows lingering lake effect snow showers ending across the Great Lakes Region. As we approach the end of the week and weekend ahead, another system will develop in the Central and Southern US with areas of heavy rain and a little snow farther north. Waves of Pacific precipitation will impact the Western US with heavier coastal rain and high elevation snow.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temperatures returning to much of the nation, including the Midwest. The early part of December looks to start on a very mild note.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
The 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook shows more active weather in place across the Western US and into the Midwest. Meanwhile, drier weather will develop in the Southern & Southwestern US.
40s And Mostly Dry Into Mid-December?
By Paul Douglas
Could the Viking's sluggish performance on MNF be linked to El Nino? Asking for a friend. C'mon Paul. Use your critical thinking skills. There is no evidence, no data, linking a lack of snow cover to player performance. Time to take a break from social media.
El Nino is probably the driving signal that's causing (most) storms to detour south and east of Minnesota, a trend that may continue much of the winter. It's a low-confidence extended outlook, but ECMWF model ensembles predict 1" of snow between now and Christmas at MSP. I see a few 40s deep into December. Roughly a quarter of Christmas Days in the metro are brown - this may be one of them. That said, I'm hoping to be pleasantly surprised.
Embrace 40s today with a few 50s over southwest Minnesota, in fact daytime highs may poke into the 40s late next week. I see dry weather into the weekend, with only a slight chance of slush next Monday from a clipper. Amazingly quiet out there for the time being. I can live without weather excitement for a few weeks.
Extended Forecast
WEDNESDAY: Sunny and mild. Winds: W 10-15. High 42.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Not as cold. Winds: SSW 5-10. Low: 27.
THURSDAY: Sunny with a cooler breeze. Winds: NW 10-20. High 37.
FRIDAY: Blue skies, less wind. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 23. High 36.
SATURDAY: Clouds increase, should stay dry. Winds: SE 10-20. Wake-up: 27. High 37.
SUNDAY: Lingering clouds, few flurries. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 28. High 38.
MONDAY: A little slush from a clipper? Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 29. High: 36.
TUESDAY: Becoming partly sunny. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 26. High 39.
This Day in Weather History
November 29th
1991: Parts of central Minnesota receive heavy snow including a record 16 inches of snow in New Ulm.
1835: A low of 11 below zero is reported at Ft. Snelling.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
November 29th
Average High: 35F (Record: 62F set in 1998)
Average Low: 22F (Record: -25F set in 1875)
Record Rainfall: 1.38" set in 1991
Record Snowfall: 12.6" set in 1991
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
November 29th
Sunrise: 7:28am
Sunset: 4:34pm
Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 06 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: 1 Minutes & 40 Seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 6 Hour & 41 Minutes
Moon Phase for November 29th at Midnight
2.9 Days After Full "Beaver" Moon
"Nov. 27 at 3:16 a.m. CST - Some accounts suggest the name Beaver Moon came from the fact that this moon signaled it was time to set beaver traps before the swamps freeze to ensure a supply of warm winter furs! Another interpretation suggests that the name Beaver Full Moon comes from the fact that the beavers are now active in their preparation for winter. Also called the Frosty Moon."
National High Temps on Wednesday
The weather outlook on Wednesday will remain chillier than average across the Eastern US with temps running nearly -10F to -15F below average for this time of the year. Meanwhile, folks in the Midwest will begin warming up and will now remain milder than average as we approach the early half of December.
National Weather Outlook For Wednesday
The National Weather Outlook on Wednesday shows areas of lingering snow across the Great Lakes, but it won't be as heavy as it has been. Much of the rest of the nation will be dry, but areas of rain and thunder will develop across Southern and Eastern TX.
National Weather Outlook
The National Weather outlook through Thursday shows lingering lake effect snow showers across the Great Lakes Region. The second half the week will turn unsettled across the Central and Southern US with areas of heavy rain and thunder with some spotty severe storms possible in eastern Texas. There will also be some decent rain and snow across the Western US.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook shows heavier precipitation across the Eastern US and especially across the Gulf Coast States. There will be another surge of heavier precipitation in the Pacific Northwest with some high elevation snow.
Extended Snowfall Outlook
According to the ECMWF weather model, areas of heavy snow in the Rockies and also across the Great Lakes and Northeast.
Climate Stories
"Inside abandoned beach resort frozen in time after hurricane disaster with rotting animal carcasses & crumbling pools"
"Once a bustling "paradise" holiday hotspot, the luxurious resort has now been left to fester and rot as nature reclaims its territory. In its prime the Club Maeva Tulum had numerous positive reviews from guests who spent hours lounging by the expansive pool and eating outstanding food and drink. But then disaster struck in 2005 when hurricane Emily launched an attack, shattering glass and sending bricks flying. Although it was a second hurricane - dubbed Wilma - that dealt a final devastating blow."
"Midwest weather experts want to talk about climate change, but they face pushback and threats"
Meteorologists and climatologists often have a tough job explaining climate change to the public, especially in places where audiences may be more skeptical of the science. In the Midwest and Great Plains, strong resistance has pushed some out of the field. Chris Gloninger was excited to start his new job as chief meteorologist at KCCI, a TV station in Des Moines, when he moved to Iowa in 2021. He was coming from Boston to connect the dots between weather and climate change trends. Gloninger knew it might elicit some grumbling from Iowan viewers. "I expected push back," he said. "I just didn't expect the magnitude and how quickly it went off the rails."
"Forecast Fails: 24 Times Meteorologists Got the Weather Wrong"
"Like sports referees, meteorologists can sometimes become an object of ridicule. Even if they get the weather right, being the harbinger of bad news may bring unfair antipathy; getting it wrong could cost lives. However, sometimes weather experts can get the forecast catastrophically incorrect. 1. The Schoolhouse Blizzard of 1888. Following a spate of pleasant mild weather on January 11, 1888, locals in Dakota (before its 1889 division into two states) had no idea what would hit them. The next day, the temperatures fell 37 Celsius when a surprise snowstorm swept the Great Plains state. Over 230 people lost their lives, primarily children and farmhands, which was down to the Army Signal Corps, who opted not to warn them."
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