SATURDAY
AFC
No. 6 Indianapolis (10-6) at No. 3 Houston (11-5)
When: 3:35 p.m. (Ch. 5/ESPN)
The matchup: The Comeback Bowl features teams that went 4-12 last year. Indy's Andrew Luck, who missed last season, is second in touchdown passes (39). Houston's Deshaun Watson, who missed nine games last year, is the first NFL player to pass for 4,000 yards and 25 TDs while rushing for 500 yards and five TDs.
Key stat: The Colts gave up a league-low 18 sacks.
Colts win Super Bowl if … Luck gets hot and the 10th-ranked scoring defense (21.5) plays four games like it did in shutting out the Cowboys last month.
Texans win Super Bowl if … Watson stays efficient and explosive and J.J. Watt keeps channeling Reggie White, the only other player with four seasons of at least 15 sacks.
NFC
No. 5 Seattle (10-6) at No. 4 Dallas (10-6)
When: 7:15 p.m. (Ch. 9)
The matchup: Rematch of the infamous Tony Romo botched hold game 12 years ago. Two run-oriented teams ranking first (Seattle) and 10th (Dallas) in rushing. Defensively, Seattle ranks 30th in yards allowed per attempt (4.95). Dallas is tied for fourth in yards allowed per attempt (3.78).
Key stat: Seattle led the NFL in turnover differential (plus-15).
Seahawks win Super Bowl if … They keep rushing for 160 yards per game, protecting the ball (NFL-low 11 giveaways) and enjoying Russell Wilson's best season.
Cowboys win Super Bowl if … The offense can give Ezekiel Elliott some balance while the defense does everything it did while beating the Saints 13-10.
SUNDAY
AFC
No. 5 L.A. Chargers (12-4) at No. 4 Baltimore (10-6)
When: 12:05 p.m. (Ch. 4)
The matchup: Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers is 37 but has only four playoff wins (4-5) in 15 seasons. Ravens rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson is 21 but ran for 695 yards, five TDs and a 4.7-yard average while going 6-1 as a starter. Baltimore won 22-10 at Los Angeles two weeks ago.
Key stat: Baltimore is the only playoff team that's top-five in rushing (second) and run defense (fourth).
Chargers win Super Bowl if … Their league-high seven Pro Bowl players, including Rivers, help them build upon their 7-1 road record.
Ravens win Super Bowl if … Jackson doesn't make critical errors while the team controls tempo and wins with the league's No. 2-ranked scoring defense (17.9).
NFC
No. 6 Philadelphia (9-7) at No. 3 Chicago (12-4)
When: 3:40 p.m. (Ch. 11)
The matchup: The league's best and most opportunistic defense gets home-field advantage against the hottest backup quarterback in NFL history. Reigning Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles will be trying to join Matt Ryan as the only players in NFL history to pass for 300 yards and three touchdowns in three consecutive postseason games.
Key stat: The Eagles are minus-6 in turnover ratio, worst among playoff teams. Baltimore is next at minus-3.
Eagles win Super Bowl if … Foles' magic can carry a beat-up champion to three consecutive road victories. He is 9-2 since 2017, including 3-0 in last year's postseason.
Bears win Super Bowl if … Mitch Trubisky doesn't hinder a defense that leads the NFL in takeaways (36), interceptions (27) and points (17.7).
MARK CRAIG
