By Pat Doyle
Minnesota's flagging population growth could cost it a congressional seat in 2012, but a strong response to next year's census might prevent the state from losing representation.
A Washington-area consultant has projected that Minnesota's population will grow by about 35,000 between now and early 2010, a slower pace than faster-growing states in the west and south.
Election Data Services, a bi-partisan consulting group, said an analysis of recently released U.S. Census data shows Minnesota is likely to lose one of its eight seats. But Kim Brace, president of the firm, cautioned that the odds of that happening are "real close" and that Minnesota could preserve all eight seats with a strong turnout in the 2010 census.
"As a result, it would pay for everybody in Minnesota to fill out their census forms," Brace said, adding that as few as 7,000 people in the state could make the diference between having seven or eight seats.
Minnesota state demographer Tom Gillaspy agrees that the state is "on the cusp" of losing a seat, but says he's increasingly confident that it won't.
"We've done a really good job of counting people in the last couple of censuses, and if we do that again we'll be okay," Gillaspy said.
A loss of a congrressional seat wouild set up a fight between Republicans and Democrats over which member of the delegation pays the price.
The Minnesota legislature and governor would be faced with deciding which seat to eliminate, a highly political job that could end in a stalemate that winds up in federal courts.
If Minnesota were slated to lose a seat, the Sixth Congressional District represented by Republican Michele Bachmann would be particularly vulnerable, said Steven Smith, a political science professor at Washington University in St. Louis.
That's because the Sixth, which includes eastern, northern and western suburbs, is an odd shape that would make it a likely candidate to carve up, he said. If so, it would likely force Bachmann, if she opted to stay in Congress, to run in a less conservative district.
However, if Republicans were to control the legislature and governor's office they would likely try to carve up the First Congressional DIstrict represented by Democrat Tim Walz, Smith said.
