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Bears (minus-3) at Lions: Bears 10, Lions 6

Happy Thanksgiving! Not so happy first game, per usual thanks to the worst tradition in sports. At least it should be competitive. Since Oct. 17, the Bears actually have a worse record (0-5) than the winless Lions (0-4-1). Detroit is 6-4 against the spread, so it's not yet tanking. Chicago is 1-4 against the spread during its current losing streak. A vow never to pick the Lions again this season has this guesstimator picking Bears backup Andy Dalton to beat Lions backup Tim Boyle and thus sending the Lions into the Dec. 5 Vikings game with an 0-10-1 record. No pressure, Minnesota.

Raiders (plus-7 ½) at Cowboys: Cowboys 34, Raiders 14

Somehow the Cowboys' vaunted offense was held to only three field goals by Kansas City's pitiful defense in a loss on Sunday. The Raiders were destroyed at home by the Bengals and are in full free-fall mode while failing to reach 17 points in three straight losses. Dallas is beat up at receiver, but gets back on track at home.

Bills (minus-5 ½) at Saints: Saints 31, Bills 28

The Saints continue to be one of the tougher teams to predict, having lost three straight after winning three straight. The Bills, meanwhile, are becoming the NFL's most disappointing team, having lost two of their past three games while scoring six points against Jacksonville and 15 against the Colts. Both teams gave up 40-plus points while getting blown out on Sunday. Go with the home underdogs, who are 4-1 against the spread following a loss.