Paul Douglas On Weather
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Winter Storm Warnings Posted Through Tuesday

HEAVY SNOW ON MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD SNOW THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION. A long duration snowfall event will cause travel impacts across the region beginning late tonight and lasting through Tuesday. The heaviest snow will fall along an east, west line across central Minnesota into northern, namely along and north of a line from Madison to St Cloud to Hayward. Snowfall amounts in this region are likely to be in the 10 to 14 inch range, with locally higher amounts possible. The snow will begin late tonight, and most of this snow will fall on Monday. The band of snow will gradually weaken and spread across the rest of the region late Monday and Monday night, before exiting the area Tuesday evening. It is in this timeframe when most of the other locations will see snow. Most locations will see 3 to 6 inches of snow from Monday night through Tuesday. As mentioned earlier, travel impacts are expected tomorrow through Tuesday as the snow begins in your location. This will be a lighter and more fluffy snow. Northeast winds of 20 to 25 mph will lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow. Please plan on extra travel time to reach your destination. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at for Minnesota or for Wisconsin.

MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT. Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 14 inches. Locally higher amounts are likely, particularly in northern counties.
WHERE: Portions of east central Minnesota.
WHEN: From 3 PM Monday to midnight CST Tuesday night.
IMPACTS: Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions will make for difficult travel.

WHAT: WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY. Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 7 inches. Locally higher amounts are possible.
WHERE: Portions of south and west central Minnesota.
WHEN: From 3 PM Monday to 6 PM CST Tuesday.
IMPACTS: Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will make for difficult travel. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

Plowable Snow Monday & Tuesday

Here's the weather outlook from AM Monday to AM Wednesday, which shows a large storm system moving through the Midwest through the first half of the week. Areas of heavy snow can be expected on Monday and Tuesday with the system finally pulling away on Wednesday. Meanwhile, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across the Southern US on Monday and Tuesday with locally heavy rainfall.

Major Winter Impacts For Some

"A long duration snowfall event will bring two waves of heavier snow and travel impacts across the region, especially along a west-to-east line in central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. Breezy northeast winds near 25 mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow."

One-Two Punch: Monday's Snow

This storm system will come in two different waves. The first arrives overnight Sunday into Monday and the second wave arrives Monday night into Tuesday. The narrow and more intense band will actually set up north of the Twin Cities on Monday.

"Mondays' snow will be focused along a west-to-east band from central Minnesota to northern Wisconsin. Areas under this band could see 8 to 12 inches. Snow will gradually spread across the region later in the day, with an icy mix possible to the south along I-90."

One-Two Punch: Tuesday's Snow

Tuesday will the the second punch of the storm system, which looks more widespread, but also lighter across the region. However, with that said, Tuesday will likely see plowable snow across much of the region with some 4" to 8" amounts possible on top of what falls on Monday. When you combine the 2 day snowfall event, some across central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin could see well over a foot of snow, while folks closer to the Twin Cities metro might see more like 5" to 8" of snow. Still a noteworthy storm with gusty winds and blowing snow expected as well.

"Tuesday's snow will be more widespread, with lesser amounts. Most locations should see between 3 and 6 inches of additional snow."

Monday Weather Outlook

The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Monday shows steady temps throughout much of the day with gusty ENE winds through the day. There will also be areas of snow falling, but the heaviest will be north of the Twin Cities.

Meteograms for Minneapolis

The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Monday show temps hovering in the upper 10s to near 20F with ENE winds gusting close to 30mph through the day. Areas of snow will continue, but the heaviest will likely be north of the Twin Cities metro.

Wind Chill Values Monday

Feels like temps for Minneapolis on Monday will hover in the single digits all day with areas of snow continue.

Weather Outlook For Monday

High temps across the region on Monday will chilly with highs running nearly -10F to -20F below average across much of the state. Some locations in the Northwestern part of the state will remain sub-zero, which will be nearly -30F below average. A few locations in North Dakota could see record cold highs for the day Monday, including Grand Forks & Bismarck.

Weather Outlook on Tuesday

Tuesday will be another cold and snow day across the region with highs running nearly -20F to -30F below average. Many spots around the region will only warm into the single digits above and below 0F with record cold highs possible for some.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis over the next several days shows well below average temps in place through the week ahead. The last full week of February will end on a very chilly note with highs nearly -10F to -20F below average.

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook through the week ahead shows cold and snowy weather in place Monday and Tuesday. The rest of the week will be quieter, but it will be cold with highs only warming into the teens and overnight lows dipping down into the sub-zero range.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

According to the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook, temps will be quite chilly through the last full week of February with highs only warming into the 10s and 20s. However, we're getting indications of a modest warm up as we get closer to the early part of March.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows cooler than average temps across much of the Eastern two-thirds of the nation, while above average temps settle in across the southwestern US.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8-14 Day precipitation outlook somewhat drier weather settling in across the Southwestern US and east of the Rockies. However, more active weather will be possible in the Northwest.

Snow on the way Monday & Tuesday
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.

According to NOAA's NCEI, January 2022 was the Earth's sixth-warmest January on record since global-record keeping began in1880. Interestingly, this also occurred during a La Nina event, which typically coincides with slightly cooler global temperatures. There were 36 all-time heat records including a 107.1F reading in Gallinas, Mexico, which is the hottest temp ever record in North America during the month of January. Meanwhile, Minnesota experienced its coldest January on record since 2014.

Despite highs warming into the 40s and 50s across the southern half of Minnesota yesterday, February 2022 has been running cooler than average with temps ending on a very cold note over the next 7 days.

A winter storm unfolds today and tomorrow with wind-whipped flakes accumulating to plowable amounts across much of the state. This will be a one-two punch with the heaviest falling north of the metro today. Tomorrow's punch will likely be our largest snowfall since December 10th when 11 inches fell at the MSP Airport. Happy shoveling!

Extended Forecast

MONDAY: Windy. Heavier snow north. Winds: ENE 15-30. High: 19.

MONDAY NIGHT: Windy with snow likely. Winds: NNE 15. Low: 7.

TUESDAY: Windy & cold. Plowable snow likely. Winds: N 15-25. High: 22.

WEDNESDAY: AM Flakes. Icy PM sunshine. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: -3. High: 9.

THURSDAY: Chance of light PM snow. Mainly S. MN. Winds: N 5-10. Wake-up: -1. High: 13.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny with a cold breeze. Winds: WNW 5-10. Wake-up: -2. High: 12.

SATURDAY: Sunny skies. Go play in the snow. Winds: SW 10-15. Wake-up: -2. High: 24.

SUNDAY: AM Flake or flurry. Light winds. Winds: ENE 5-10. Wake-up: 0. High: 21.

This Day in Weather History

February 21st

1965: Strong winds occur, reaching speeds of up to 45 mph in the Twin Cities.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

February 21st

Average High: 31F (Record: 62F set in 2017)

Average Low: 15F (Record: -21F set in 1873)

Record Rainfall: 0.82" set in 1882)

Record Snowfall: 5.5" set in 1962

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

February 21st

Sunrise: 7:03am

Sunset: 5:49pm

Hours of Daylight: ~10 hours & 45 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 3 minute & 00 seconds

Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 1 Hour & 59 Minutes

Moon Phase for February 21st at Midnight

1.6 Days Before Last Quarter Moon

National High Temps Monday

The weather outlook on Monday shows well above average temperatures returning to the eastern half of the nation. Scattered showers and storms will be possible in the Southern US, some of which could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall. There will also be areas of heavy snow across part of the Midwest on Monday, where temps will be quite a bit below average.

National Weather Outlook

Weather conditions will remain somewhat active across the Central US as a big storm system develops with heavy rain and severe storms in the Southern US. There will also be areas of heavy snow across the Midwest and Great Lakes Region. Another area of low pressure will slide into the Southwestern US with areas of rain in California and heavy snow across parts of the Rockies and Southwest.

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavy precipitation will be found across parts of the Central and Eastern US. There will also be some decent precipitation across parts of the Upper Midwest and across the Western US.

Extended Snowfall Outlook

Here's the ECMWF extended snowfall outlook through the week ahead, which shows areas of heavy snow from the Central US to the Great Lakes. There also looks like to be heavy snow across the northern tier of the nation. There could also be some decent snowfall across parts of the Southwestern US, including California, Arizona and New Mexico.

Climate Stories

"Unprecedented Image Captures Freakishly Large Solar Eruption"

"The blast of hot gas stretched 2 million miles—and probably more. The Solar Orbiter spacecraft had a front-row view this week of the Sun giving out an unusually large belch, resulting in a one-of-a-kind image. Solar Orbiter observed the solar prominence, or filament, on February 15, according to a European Space Agency release. Solar prominences are clouds of solar gas held above the surface of the Sun's magnetic field, and they often appear as gigantic looping structures that last for days or even weeks. These events can result in coronal mass ejections (CMEs), in which expelled gas races out through the solar system. If directed at Earth, CMEs can mess up our technologies—like newly launched satellites. Thankfully, this ejection was not directed toward Earth. Quite the opposite, actually. The view from Solar Orbiter, a joint mission of NASA and ESA, suggests the filament originated on the Sun's far side from the perspective of the spacecraft."

See more from Gizmodo HERE:

"Tackling climate change includes seeking equitable mental health care"

"As climate change drives extreme events and long-term changes to Earth's environment, the physical impacts on human health – deaths caused by high temperatures, respiratory illnesses brought about by wildfire smoke, and more – are on the rise. But anxiety, stress, and other mental health impacts of these changes are harder to track. Still, as extreme weather events accelerate and people around the world become more aware of the planet's climate future, researchers and health professionals are documenting an uptick in associated mental health stress. This finding includes anxiety about what the future may look like, depression in the face of real or expected losses of life or homes, and despair as individuals observe a lack of action by political leaders. Unsurprisingly, research shows these mental health impacts disproportionately affect marginalized communities, such as Indigenous populations and low-income communities of color. Tackling climate change requires transformation of behaviors and of the economy, but this level of change can be achieved only through political pressure from a critical mass of individuals and communities spanning demographics, socio-economic status, and geographies. Achieving and sustaining that level of action requires that a majority of those people not be incapacitated by climate anxiety or despair."

See more from Yale Climate Connections HERE:

"January 2022: Earth's 6th-warmest January on record"

"Australia, Paraguay, and Uruguay measured their highest temperature on record, while Montenegro and Myanmar measured their lowest temperature on record. January 2022 was Earth's sixth-warmest January since global record-keeping began in 1880, 0.89 degree Celsius (1.60°F) above the 20th-century average, NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information, NCEI, reported February 14. NASA rated January 2022 as the fifth-warmest January on record, 1.20 degrees Celsius (2.16°F) above the 1880-1920 period, which is its best estimate for when preindustrial temperatures occurred. January 2022 was the sixth-warmest January on record according to the Japan Meteorological Agency and the European Copernicus Climate Change Service. Minor differences in the agencies' rankings can result from the different ways they treat data-sparse regions such as the Arctic. Notably, last month was the warmest January on record to occur during a La Niña event. Global air temperature tends to cool slightly during La Niña and warm slightly during El Niño, on top of the longer-term warming caused by human-produced greenhouse gases."

See more from Yale Climate Connection HERE:

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