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Weekend Outlook For the Twin Cities
For the first time in a long time, weekend weather conditions look fairly unsettled across parts of the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible both Saturday and Sunday with a few strong storms possible as well. Keep in mind that some of the storms could produce locally heavy rainfall with some 1" to 2" tallies possible.
Saturday Severe Threat
According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, there is a risk of severe storms on Saturday with large hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado possible. The Slight Risk (in yellow) is a level 2 out of 5 on the severe scale, so severe storm chances should be too widespread, but there certainly be a few strong storms across parts of the region.
Simulated Radar AM Saturday to AM Sunday
Here's NOAA's HRRR simulated radar from AM Saturday to AM Sunday, which shows showers and storms pushing through the region during the morning hours. Some of the storms could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall early and again late in the day when another round of storms develops.
Rainfall Potential Through AM Monday
Unfortunately, weather conditions will be unsettled over the weekend, but the good news is that many locations have a pretty good chance of some measurable rainfall! According to NOAA's NDFD, some locations could see 1" to 2" tallies, which would be great news for many as it has been a very hot and dry summer so far.
Drought Update
The US Drought Monitor released their latest drought update on Thursday, which suggested that drought conditions continue to deepen across the state. Last week, nearly 22% of the state was in an extreme drought, now nearly 35% is in an extreme drought. Severe drought conditions have expanded to nearly 80% of the state, including the Twin Cities.
Precipitation Departure From Average Since Jan. 1st
The map below shows precipitation departures from average since January 1st. Other than Wausau and Rhinelander, most locations are several inches below average since the beginning of the year. In fact, Minneapolis is at its 22nd driest start to any year on record. Fargo is the 6th driest and Milwaukee 2nd driest.
Saturday Weather Outlook
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Saturday shows near average temperatures in place for early August. However, it looks like a fairly unsettled day with scattered showers and storms possible in the morning again later in the day. Some of the storms could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall.
Minneapolis Meteograms
The meteograms for Minneapolis on Saturday shows temps warming from near 70F in the morning to the lower 80s in the afternoon. Showers and storms will be possible throughout the day as well, but the best chance of showers and storms will be during the first half of the and again late in the afternoon/evening. Keep in mind that some of the storms could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall. Winds will generally be out of the east with gusts approaching 15mph/20mph.
Regional Weather Outlook for Saturday
The weather outlook across the region on Saturday shows near average temps for many locations across the region with the exception of the North Shore, where readings will be nearly -5F to -10F below average thanks to an easterly wind off of Lake Superior. Areas of showers and storms will be fairly widespread with a few strong/severe storms and pockets of locally heavy rain.
Extended Weather Outlook for Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook for Minneapolis shows near average temps over the weekend thanks to a storms system bringing much needed rains to the region. After the storm passes, skies will clear and temps will warm to above average levels once again early next week. In fact, highs will approach 90F on Monday and Tuesday, which will be nearly +5F to +10F above average.
Weather Outlook Through Early Next Week
Here's the extended weather outlook through the weekend and into early next week, which shows unsettled weather moving through much of the Midwest. Again, some of the storms could be strong to severe with locally heavy rains for some.
Regional Rainfall Potential Through 7PM Sunday
Here's the rainfall potential through 7PM Sunday, which shows pockets of heavy rains across parts of the region, including Eastern Minnesota into Central Wisconsin. It has been very dry across much of the Midwest, so any rain we can get is good news!
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temps continuing across much of northern two-thirds of the nation, including the Upper Midwest.
What Is "Nice Weather" In A Drought?
By Paul Douglas
"Paul, can we expect a nice weekend in Minnesota?" If by nice you mean washed-out picnics, soggy outdoor wedding ceremonies, soaked boaters and golfers running and screaming to get off hole #18 before alien-looking clouds touchdown? Then yes. I'm hoping for a nice weekend, but the definition of nice weather sure has evolved as Minnesota's drought has gone from moderate to extreme.
We need about 5-8 inches of rain but not all at once. Dry ground is more impermeable; it's harder for rainwater to soak into the soil where it's needed. During downpours, much of the rain runs off into streams, streets and sewers. Six one-inch rains would do a lot more good than one 6-inchcloudburst right now.
A few snarling T-storms are expected today; a small percentage may turn severe with large hail and damaging winds over roughly the southern half of Minnesota. Daytime highs flirt with 90F next week before cooling off late Thursday. Until further notice Canadian cool fronts may be accompanied by thick smoke. Oy.
Extended Forecast
SATURDAY: T-storms, some severe. Winds: SE 10-20. High: 81.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Showers & Storms. Winds: SSE 10-15. Low: 71.
SUNDAY: More showers and T-showers. Winds: SW 10-15. High: 82.
MONDAY: Sticky sunshine, hotter. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 70. High: 88.
TUESDAY: Steamy, few passing T-storms. Winds: W 10-15. Wake-up: 73. High: 90.
WEDNESDAY: Plenty of hot sunshine. Winds: SW 10-15. Wake-up: 71. High: 89.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny, turning less humid. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 66. High: 86.
FRIDAY: Comfortable. Risk of Canadian smoke?. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 60. High: 78.
This Day in Weather History
August 7th
1968: 7.09 inches of rain falls at Mankato. 1,200 homes are damaged. Highways 169 and 22 are blocked by mudslides.
1955: The climate record of George W. Richards of Maple Plain ends. He recorded weather data with lively notations on phenology and weather events. He began taking observations when he was eleven in 1883. He continued to take observations for 72 years, with 66 years as a National Weather Service Cooperator.
1896: The final day of a massive heat wave brings highs of 104 to Le Sueur and Mazeppa.
1863: A Forest City observer sees what he calls a 'perfect tornado.' He noted that it 'drove principally from west to east and lasted about one half hour.'
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
August 7th
Average High: 82F (Record: 98F set in 2001)
Average Low: 63F (Record: 45F set in 1972)
Record Rainfall: 2.29" set in 1984
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
August 7th
Sunrise: 6:06am
Sunset: 8:31pm
Hours of Daylight: ~14 hours & 25 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minute & 35 seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 20th): ~1 Hour & 12 Minutes
Moon Phase for August 7th at Midnight
0.3 Days Before New Moon
What's in the Night Sky?
"Moon and Gemini stars On the mornings of August 5 and 6, 2021, you'll find the waning crescent moon in front of the constellation Gemini the Twins. Gemini's two brightest stars, Castor and Pollux, represent twin brothers in Greek mythology. These two stars don't look alike. Pollux is slightly brighter than Castor and more golden in color. But no two bright stars in our sky lie so near one another. Their brightness and proximity have made Castor and Pollux a symbol of brotherly love for centuries. Ancient tale of the Twins There are multiple versions of the ancient tale of the Twins. In Greek mythology, both Castor and Pollux were born from the same mortal mother, Leda, with different fathers. Castor, the mortal brother, was sired by Tyndareus, a mortal king of Sparta. Pollux, the immortal brother, was the son of Zeus, the king of the gods, who seduced Leda in the form of a swan. It's said that – when the mortal brother Castor was slain in battle – his immortal brother Pollux was inconsolable. He begged his father Zeus to relieve him of the bonds of immortality. Zeus granted his request, and so Pollux joined his brother in death, choosing togetherness with his brother over eternal life. According to the legend, Zeus allowed the brothers to live together in the heavens as the constellation Gemini the Twins."
National High Temps Saturday
The weather outlook on Saturday shows near average temps across much of the nation with a few areas of showers and storms. Some of the coolest weather will be found in the Pacific Northwest, where readings will be nearly -5F to -10F below average with scattered rain showers.
National Weather Outlook
The national weather outlook through the weekend shows unsettled weather moving into the Upper Midwest. Some of the storms could be strong to severe with locally heavy rains. There will also be lingering T-Showers across the coastal communities in the Southeast, where heavy rainfall has been present over the last several days.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center areas of heavy rainfall will be possible across parts of the Midwest over the next several days. There will also be a few heavy pockets of rain across the Mid-Atlantic States and in southern Arizona, where monsoon storms will continue.
Climate Stories
"This hurricane season will be even more active than previously predicted, NOAA says"
"An already-active hurricane season shows "no sign of slowing." It's been just over two months since the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season kicked off on June 1, and we can expect to see even more hurricanes and named storms than experts previously predicted, before the season winds down on Nov. 30. On Wednesday (Aug. 4), scientists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) updated their May 20 hurricane season forecast, in an online briefing. They had already warned in May of above-normal hurricane activity, Live Science previously reported, and their update confirmed the presence of atmospheric and ocean conditions that favor higher-than-average storm activity."
"U.N. Climate Report Likely to Deliver Stark Warnings on Global Warming"
"Eight years after its last update on climate science, the United Nations is set to publish a report Monday that will likely deliver even starker warnings about how quickly the planet is warming – and how damaging the impacts might get. Since the last report https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2013, both greenhouse gas emissions and the average global temperature have only continued to climb. The new report will forecast how much more emissions can be pumped into the atmosphere before the average global temperature rises more than 1.5 degrees Celsius. That revised carbon budget may serve as a guide to governments as they map out their own emissions-cutting plans before a major U.N. climate conference in November. Scientists say the world must halve global emissions by 2030 and cut them to net-zero by 2050 in order to prevent global warming above 1.5C, which could trigger catastrophic impacts across the globe."
"This new technology could help cool people down—without electricity"
"As climate change brings more extreme heat, air conditioning use is going to skyrocket, baking the planet even more. What if there were a way to cool without making warming worse? When Rebecca Sunenshine moved to Phoenix, Arizona, her first electric bill shocked her. "I called the utility and said, 'You must have made a mistake.' Because I think it was a $400 or $500 bill," says Sunenshine, who is the medical director for Disease Control with the Maricopa County Health Department. "And they said, 'Did you just move here?'" The utility hadn't erred. Air-conditioning accounts for about a quarter of Arizonans' energy use, more than four times the national average. And it's not a luxury. Without air conditioning, summer heat in Phoenix can be fatal. Last year, Maricopa County recorded 323 heat-related deaths—a record for the county. "We've had the highest number we've ever seen several years in a row," says Sunenshine. The county is currently on track to exceed last year's toll."
See more from National Geographic HERE: