Paul Douglas On Weather
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Monday Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

High temps on Monday will be very warm for the end of March. If fact, we could see our first 70F high of the year and the first 70F since November 8th, when MSP topped out at 72F. Note that our first 70F day of the year at MSP typically arrives around the 8th of April. Our earliest 70F day was on March 5th in the year 2000.

Monday Meteograms

Here are the meteorgrams for Minneapolis on Monday. Temperature will be VERY with highs topping out near 70F during the afternoon hours. We'll also have plenty of sunshine, but southerly winds will be quite strong with gusts approaching 40mph across the region.

First 70s of the Year!

Take a look at the weather map for Monday below. Note that highs will be nearly +20F to +25F above average with readings warming into the 60s and 70s across much of the state. A few locations could even warm to near record levels! Note that the record high in the Twin Cities metro for March 29th is 83F, which was set in 1986.

Wind Advisory 12PM to 9PM Monday

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.
* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Wisconsin and central, east central, south central, southeast, southwest and west central Minnesota.
* WHEN...From noon to 9 PM CDT Monday.
* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

Strong Winds Monday

High temps will be VERY warm for late March, but it will come at a price. Strong winds are expected to blow through the region much of the day with peak wind gusts approaching 40mph, including the Twin Cities.

Fire Weather Concerns on Monday

South winds will increase to 25 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 or 50 mph Monday afternoon, then shift to the west and diminish some Monday evening. Relative humidities will drop to between 20 and 25 percent across western Minnesota by afternoon. A dryline may precede the cold front by a couple hours in the late afternoon. During that time, RH values could drop further into the teens across far western Minnesota. Humidities will improve slowly Monday evening, but winds will remain gusty through the night.

Extended Temperature Outlook

Here's the extended temperature and weather outlook over the next 5 to 7 days. Note that high temps on Monday could warm to 70F, which would be nearly +20F to +25F above average. Temps will actually feel a bit chilly midweek as high temps drop into the mid 30s by Wednesday, which will be nearly -10F to -15F below average. This will likely be our last chilly day for a while, note that temps will warm quickly into the 50s and 60s later in the week! Highs next weekend could be in the mid 60s, which will be more typical of late April. Despite a few rain showers along the cold front Monday night, the next 5 to 7 days appears to be quite dry.

2021 Ice Out Dates So Far

Thanks to recent rains and warmer temps, several lakes across the southern half of the state have gone ice free including a few in the Twin Cities. Warm & windy weather on Monday will help to melt even more lake ice across the region, so I expect to see quite a few more lakes go ice out this week.

See more from the MN DNR HERE:

Average Ice Out Dates Across the State

Here's a look at the average ice out dates across the state. The orange markers across the southern part of the state indicate average ice out dates typically around the last week of March. We typically see average ice out across parts of central Minnesota and around the Twin Cities during the first couple of weeks of April. Folks across the northern third of the state typically see ice out closer to the start of May.

See more from the MN DNR HERE:

Somewhat Soggy Saturday

Here's the weather outlook from AM Monday to AM Wednesday, which shows a fairly potent cold front sweeping through the region late Monday into early AM Tuesday. Note that temps ahead of the front will be well above average. As the front pushes through, there could be a brief band of rain/snow showers, but amounts will be light. Temps behind the front will be quite a bit cooler with gusty winds.

Somewhat Soggy Saturday

Here's the precipitation outlook through the midweek, which shows light precipitation potential as a front blows Monday night into early Tuesday morning.

March Summary So Far

Here's the latest March Summary for Minneapolis through March 27th. Note that the Twin Cities is nearly +8.5F above average for the month, which is actually the 8th warmest start to any March on record! We're also sitting at our 13th wettest March on record with 2.82" of liquid falling at MSP, which is nearly +1.25" above average. Interestingly, we are nearly -5.5" below average in the snowfall department thanks to temps being so warm this month.

Precipitation So Far This March

March has been a fairly soggy month with precipitation values running above average across much of the state. Note that many locations are running nearly 1" or more above average so far this month, including the Twin Cities, St. Cloud and Duluth.

Snowfall So Far This March

Despite seeing above average precipitation this month, snowfall amounts have been below average due to warmer than average temps this month. The monthly snowfall deficit in the Twin Cities is nearing 6"

Snowfall So Far This Season

Taking a look at the snowfall so far this season, many locations are running below average. While the Twin Cities is only a few inches below average, folks in northern Minnesota, including International Falls, are running nearly 2ft below average this season. Incredibly, Marquette, MI is nearly -85" below average this season, which is nearly 7ft!

Spring Leaf Index

"How do you know when spring has begun? Is it the appearance of the first tiny leaves on the trees, or the first crocus plants peeping through the snow? The First Leaf and First Bloom Indices are synthetic measures of these early season events in plants, based on recent temperature conditions. These models allowus to track the progression of spring onset across the country.March 22, 2021 Spring leaf out continues to spread north across the country. After arriving early in southern parts of Southwest and Southeast states, cold temperatures halted the progress of spring leaf out for several days across the northern part of the Southeast and Great Plains. Spring leaf out is now gaining momentum again as it moves into Midwest states but continues to be behind schedule in the mid-Atlantic. Spring bloom has arrived in parts of Southwest and Southeast states. Spring bloom is early in California and Arizona and late in parts of Southeast states."

See more from NPN HERE

Extended Temperature Outlook

Here's the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis through the end of March and into the early part of April. Monday will feature well above average temperatures ahead of a sharp cold front that will drop temps to below average readings around midweek. Note that there will be a big warm up as we approach next weekend, which is the first weekend of April.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows temps warming to above average levels across much of the Central US through the first week of April

First Shot at 70F Arriving Two Weeks Early
By Paul Douglas

In recent days I have experienced an unusual symptom: optimism. The pace of vaccinations is increasing, and Mother Nature is perfecting a vaccine against winter. Symptoms may show up later today as the mercury approaches 70F in the metro: restlessness, an inexplicable urge to rake the lawn, taking Zoom calls out on the deck. Go for it.

Praedictix meteorologist D.J. Kayser reports the average first 70F at MSP over the 143 year record is April 13. At this rate ice may come off lakes at least 2 weeks earlier than normal. Someone please explain "normal" in Minnesota?

Today's surge of warmth will be accompanied by wind gusts as high as 40 mph. The greater the swing in temperature, the faster the winds have to blow. As quickly as the mercury mellows today, it'll tumble tomorrow, holding in the 30s midweek. 60s return by late week and NOAA's GFS model insists we'll see 70F again next week.

These pulses of unusual warmth may set off the season's first thunderstorms 6-8 days from now. Spring likes to make a scene.

Extended Forecast

MONDAY: Sunny, windy and mild. Winds: S 20-40. High: 70.

MONDAY NIGHT: Windy with a slight chance of rain. Winds: SW turning NW 15-35. Low: 36.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy, colder wind. Winds: W 15-30. High: 41.

WEDNESDAY: Heavy jacket-worthy. Bright sun. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 25. High: 38.

THURSDAY: Sunny and pleasantly cool. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 25 High: 47.

FRIDAY: Blue sky, milder breeze kicks in. Winds: S 15-25. Wake-up:34. High: 58.

SATURDAY:Partly sunny, spring cleanup time. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 40. High: 61.

SUNDAY:Some sun, few T-storms at night? Winds: E 7-12. Wake-up: 39. High: 60.

This Day in Weather History

March 29th

1986: Record warmth occurs with July-like temperatures. A monthly record high of 83 occurs at the Twin Cities.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

March 29th

Average High: 48F(Record: 83F set in 1986)

Average Low: 29F (Record: -5Fset in 1969)

Record Rainfall: 0.79" set in 1998

Record Snowfall: 11.0" set in 1924

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

March 29th

Sunrise: 6:59am

Sunset: 7:37pm

Hours of Daylight: ~12hours & 39minutes

Daylight GAINEDsinceyesterday: ~ 3 minutes & 8seconds

Daylight GAINEDsince WinterSolstice (December 21st): ~ 3 hours & 53 minutes

Moon Phase for March 29th at Midnight

1.5 Days After Full "Worm" Moon

"1:48 p.m. CDT - In this month the ground softens and earthworm casts reappear, inviting the return of robins. Some more northern tribes knew this as the Full Crow Moon, when the cawing of crows signals the end of winter, or the Full Crust Moon because the snow cover becomes crusted from thawing by day and freezing at night. The Full Sap Moon, marking the time of tapping maple trees, is another variation.This is also the Paschal Full Moon; the first full moon of the spring season. The first Sunday following the Paschal Moon is Easter Sunday, which will be observed one week later on Sunday, April 4."

What's in the Night Sky?

"Let thewaning gibbousmoon help you find the starSpicaaround the evening of March 29, 2021. Then, throughout April and May, let the sparkling blue-white star Spica serve as your guide to the famous Omega Centauri cluster. In early April, Spica and Omega Centauri climb highest up for the night at or around 1 a.m. (2 a.m. daylight time). Because the stars return to the sky about four minutes earlier with each passing day, Spica and Omega Centauri will be highest up for the night around one hour earlier in mid-April (12 midnight or 1 a.m. daylight time), and two hours earlier by the end of April (11 p.m. or 12 midnight daylight time). What is Omega Centauri? It's the largest and finestglobular star clustervisible to the eye alone."

See more from Earth Sky HERE:

National High Temps Monday

Here's the weather outlook on Monday, which shows temps warming to above average levels across much of the Central US ahead of a strong area of low pressure moving through the Intermountain West. Temps behind this system will be below average by -5F from near Billings, MT to Seattle, WA.

National Forecast Map For Monday

The weather map on Monday, which shows lingering showers and storms across Florida and areas of rain and snow across parts of the northern tier of the nation.

National Weather Outlook

Here's the weather outlook through Tuesday. Another strong area of low pressure will track across Canada with a potential front extended south into the Lower 48. Temps on Monday in the Midwest will be VERY warm ahead of the front, but will cool to well below average levels on Wednesday.

Extended Precipitation Outlook

The extended precipitation outlook over the next 7 days shows areas of heavy rains across parts of the Eastern US. Much of the week ahead will feature mostly dry weather in the Central US.

Extended Snowfall Outlook

Here's the extended snowfall outlook through the week ahead. Note that there doesn't appear to be anything significant across the Central US, but there could be some heavy snow across the Eastern Great Lakes Region and also in the Mountains in the Northwest.

Climate Stories

"Boulder, Colorado Has A Lot Of Weather And Climate Experts - Here's Why"

"As the world watched thetragic newsunfolding in Boulder, Colorado this week, I was immediately concerned about the safety of people in the city. My sense of concerned was heightened more when I saw that the events took place at a grocery store on Table Mesa Drive. I know so many colleagues from the weather and climate community in Boulder. The National Center For Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is one of the premier weather-climate institutions in the world. Its iconic Mesa Laboratory is located very close to the site of the mass shooting. Several other world-class facilities in the city make Boulder, Coloradoa global hotspot of weather and climate expertise. With such a density of weather-climate expertise, it is not surprising that so many colleagues and social media friends were posting about how often they frequented that grocery store.Bob Hensonis a colleague of mine who spent part ofhis careerat NCAR and has lived in Boulder for decades. The meteorologist and writer tweeted, "....I've shopped at this store many hundreds of times over the past 30 years. I can't possibly capture in a tweet how awful this feels."

See more from Forbes HERE:

"NOAA Upgrades Forecasts As Climate Change Drives More Severe Storms"

"The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration upgraded the computer model that forecasters use to predict the weather one to two weeks in the future, called the Global Forecast System. The new model is better at predicting where hurricanes will form and how intense they will be as well as where and when snowstorms and rainstorms will occur, and how much precipitation will fall. "This is going to have a fundamental impact on the forecasts that are provided day to day," says Louis Uccellini, director of the National Weather Service. Climate change is driving more severe weather across the country. In recent years, Americans have experienced record-breaking hurricanes, wildfires, heat waves and rainstorms. In many cases, federal weather forecasts have not provided accurate information. The most striking example was in 2012 when the model wasslow to predictthat Hurricane Sandy was going to make landfall. During the 2019 hurricane season, the federal weather modelunderperformed the European Union's forecast modelwhen it came to predicting where hurricanes would make landfall. Andjust this monththe model incorrectly predicted how much precipitation would fall in a snowstorm that hit the Boulder, Colo., area."

See more From NPR HERE:

"Spring outlooks highlight severe weather threat in South and worsening drought in West"

"Much of the nation is expected to be warmer than average, but dry weather may expand in the West while tornadoes torment the South. Long-range forecasters are calling for a mild spring, with above-average temperatures into June. At long last, much of the Lower 48 has escaped the icy throes of winter, with flowers blooming and snow beginning to melt. But the arrival of warmer weather comes at a price — the likelihood for severe thunderstorms and the prospect of an extra-busy tornado season in the South. Drought in the West, which is historically extensive, could worsen too, the likelihood of scant rainfall and above-average temperatures ushering in the dry season and setting the stage for summertime wildfire concerns. Already, the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center is highlighting odds of above-average temperatures virtually everywhere across the Lower 48, with the exception of the Pacific Northwest. Alaska's Southcentral and Inside Passage regions are also not likely to see above-average temperatures — that's where a slight skew toward cooler temperatures can be expected."

See more from Washington Post HERE:

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