Paul Douglas On Weather
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Large Wildfires & Smoke From Friday

The map below shows several large wildfires burning in the Western US and across Canada. Hazy skies and unhealthy air qualities continue in many locations downwind of these fires. Note that dense smoke has made it all the way to the East Coast and even into the Western Atlantic.

Smoky Skies Midday Saturday

According to NOAA's HRRR weather model, the smoke analysis for midday Saturday shows more widespread smoke across the northern tier of the nation, including Minnesota. Skies will likely remain hazy with the potential of unhealthy air qualities in some locations. Interesting to see wildfire smoke as far south as Florida.

Minnesota Drought Update

According to the US Drought Monitor, nearly 20% of the state is now considered to be in an Extreme Drought, which is up from the 4% last week. Keep in mind that this is the first time any part of MN has seen Extreme Drought since April of 2013. 72% of the state is in a Severe Drought, which is up from the nearly 52% from late week. Moderate drought covers much of the Twin cities.

Precipitation Departure From Average Since Jan. 1st

It has been a warm and dry year so far with precipitation running well below average across much of the region. Here's the precipitation from average since January 1st, which shows several locations running several inches below average. The Twin Cities is nearly -5.00" below average precipitation since the beginning of the year, which is the 28th driest start to any year on record. Milwaukee is nearly -9.00" below average, which is the 3rd driest start to any year on record.

Twin Cities Weekend Outlook

Here's the weather outlook for the weekend, which shows warm, dry and hazy conditions in place both Saturday and Sunday. Interesting to note that some of the models are suggesting a slight chance of late day showers/storms on Sunday. Stay tuned.

Saturday Weather Outlook

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Saturday shows hot, dry and hazy weather conditions in place through much of the day. It might be a little soggy early in the day after overnight thunderstorms, but dewpoints will fall dramatically late in the day, so it won't be as humid as it was on Friday.

Falling Dewpoints on Saturday

Friday was a very sticky day with dewpoints in the 70s, which is considered to be Tropical. Note that dewpoints will fall nearly 20 degrees by the afternoon, which means that there will be nearly half as much water in the atmosphere by the afternoon than there was in the morning.

Minneapolis Meteograms

The meteograms for Minneapolis on Saturday will be warm once again with temps warming from the mid 70s in the morning to the low/mid 90s by the afternoon. Hazy/smoky skies will be in place once again with wind gusts approaching 25mph out of the NW in the afternoon.

Regional Weather Outlook for Saturday

The weather outlook across the region on Saturday shows hot and dry weather in place across much of the region. Showers and storms will rumble southeast early in the day with hazy/smoky sunshine moving in for the rest of the region. Note that temps will warm into the upper 80s and low/mid 90s, which will be nearly +5F to +10F above average.

Extended Weather Outlook for Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook for Minneapolis shows a string of very warm days as we head through the weekend and last full week of July. Most days will warm into the 90s, which will be nearly +10F to +15F above average for mid/late July. There could be a few stray showers and storms here and there, but it doesn't appear that any substantial rainfall will fall anytime soon.

Weather Outlook Through Early Next Week

Here's the extended weather outlook into early next week, which shows showers and storms early Saturday morning moving east toward the Great Lakes. Much of the weekend looks dry with the exception of a few late day storms on Sunday in southern MN. There could also be a few showers/storms on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Stay tuned.

Regional Rainfall Potential Through 7PM Sunday

Here's the rainfall potential through 7PM Sunday across the Midwest. Areas of showers and storms will move through the region Friday night and into Saturday. There could be a few pockets of heavier rainfall from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes Region.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temps continuing across much of the nation, including the Upper Midwest.

Timing Weather Not For Faint of Heart
By Paul Douglas

"Paul, you said the sun would be out! Where are these clouds coming from?" The sky I sigh, shrugging. PS: the sun comes out 10 minutes later. "Will the storms hold off until after the concert" my wife pleads. I think so, I nod. But the only thing I'm 100% certain about is sunset times and winter.

Meteorologists dread hard targets: concerts, parades and fairs, when people are outside - most oblivious to the weather. Doppler on my phone has saved me on many occasions. Summer storms are all about situational awareness and a healthy sense of paranoia.

Residual morning T-storms give way to clearing this afternoon with hot sunshine Sunday. Minnesota will be on the edge of blast furnace heat, sparking a few T-storms late Tuesday, again Wednesday. Happy for whatever rain we can eek out.

Weather models are conflicted. NOAA's GFS keeps beastly-heat into the first week of August, but ECMWF hints at some relief relief late next week, which seems more plausible.

These are the tropical Dog Days of July!

Extended Forecast

SATURDAY: Early storms, PM sunshine. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 92

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and quiet. Winds: NW 5-10. Low: 67.

SUNDAY: Sunny and just hot enough. Winds: W 8-13. High: 90.

MONDAY: Sticky sunshine, late thunder. Winds: SW 10-15. Wake-up: 69. High: 91.

TUESDAY: Hot sunshine. Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 71. High: 93.

WEDNESDAY: Tropical, chance of a T-storm. Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 73. High: 93.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny, turning less humid. Winds: N 10-20. Wake-up: 70. High: 88.

FRIDAY: Plenty of sunshine. Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 67. High: 86.

This Day in Weather History

July 24th

1987: A historic deluge ends in the Twin Cities. Two-day totals include over a foot of rain at Bloomington. Nearly 10 inches falls in downtown Minneapolis, and near 9 inches is recorded in St. Paul. At one time the water reaches a depth of 13.5 feet on I-494 near East Bush Lake Road. I-494 in Bloomington would be closed for nearly 5 days.

1891: Heavy frost hits Elkton in Mower County in southeast Minnesota. The frost kills all vegetable crops. The low in Elkton is 34, and the Twin Cities have a low of 49.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

July 24th

Average High: 83F (Record: 104F set in 1941)

Average Low: 64F (Record: 49F set in 1891)

Record Rainfall: 1.69" set in 2012

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

July 18th

Sunrise: 5:50am

Sunset: 8:48pm

Hours of Daylight: ~14 hours & 58 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minute & 5 seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 20th): ~39 Minutes

Moon Phase for July 24th at Midnight

1.2 Days After Full "Buck" Moon

"July 23: Full Buck Moon 9:37PM - When the new antlers of buck deer push out from their foreheads in coatings of velvety fur. It was also often called the Full Thunder Moon, thunderstorms being now most frequent. Sometimes this is also called the Full Hay Moon."

See more from HERE:

What's in the Night Sky?

"The full moon, Jupiter, Saturn ... what could be better? Watch as they light the night from dusk until dawn on July 23 to 26, 2021."

See more from Earth Sky HERE:

National High Temps Saturday

The weather outlook on Saturday shows hot temps in place across much of the Midwest, where temps will be nearly +5F to +15F above average. Interestingly, high temps will be about the same as that in the Midwest, but a 92F high temp in Phoenix will be nearly -15F below average thanks to monsoon showers and storms.

National Weather Outlook

The national weather outlook through the weekend shows scattered showers and storms across the Desert Southwest. Some of the monsoon storms could produce very heavy rainfall and flash flooding through the weekend. Meanwhile, a front will slide southeast into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Saturday with a few strong to severe storms late in the day.

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center areas of heavy rainfall will be possible in the Southwest through the weekend, where monsoon storms will continue. There will also be pockets of heavier rainfall here and there along and east of the Mississippi River Valley.

Climate Stories

"Americans mocked the UK for not being able to handle 88°F, so this Englishman set them straight"

"The UK is experiencing record-breaking weather this week. England reached its hottest temperature of the year on Tuesday when it hit 32.2°C at Heathrow Airport in west London. Temperatures in Northern Ireland reached an all-time high when 31.3°C was recorded at Castlederg the next day. However, when you translate Celsius to Fahrenheit, the temperatures don't seem to be that extreme, at least to an American. Thirty-two degrees celsius is only 89.6° F. When you compare the temperatures in the UK to an average July day in Las Vegas, Nevada where it'll hit 107°F, the British seem a little weak. An American TikTokker named Rae pointed out that the temperatures weren't that hot in a viral video."

See more from Upworthy HERE:

"The Best Space Movies Backed by Scientists"

"Find out what NASA scientists and astrophysicists thought of Hollywood's biggest sci-fi space dramas By the time you finish reading this sentence another multi-billionaire businessman may have already jettisoned himself into outer space. It's been a novel year for the aeronautics industry, with Richard Branson's Virgin Galactic and Jeff Bezos's SpaceX both making gains in commercial space tourism this month. Dreaming about the cosmos, however, is not just a pastime for the economically mobile. It's a goal that has existed within all of us, even before the first satellite, dog, rocket, man, or woman (yes, in that order) ever left the planet. Cinema has been a projection of our dreams for decades and continues to inspire and influence the technology and aesthetics of space travel today. The research, foresight, and scientific know-how that directors have incorporated into their films have surprised and even shocked astronauts. So why not save yourself a few million dollars and watch the five movies in our playlist. According to some scientists, their fidelity to space is so good you could be watching the real thing."

See more from Nowness HERE:

"What Can the Air Quality Index Tell You?"

"When New Yorker Brian Kahn woke up on Tuesday morning, he found a nearby chair to be illuminated in what he described as a "bizarre sort of millennial pink hue." After checking the weather forecast, his suspicions were confirmed: smoke from wildfires in western United States and central Canada had reached New York City, filtering the sun's light and casting a warm hazy glow over the city. "Not only can you see the smoke, not only can you feel the smoke in your lungs, but you can also actually smell the smoke as well, so it's very low to the ground," Kahn, MA, a lecturer at the Columbia Climate School and managing editor of Earther tells Verywell. "It's pretty surreal given that this smoke has traveled thousands of miles to be here," he adds. An aggressive heat wave earlier this month set off at least 78 fires in the West Coast, burning more than a million acres. The ongoing Bootleg Fire in Oregon has already burned an area larger than the city of Los Angeles. And smoke from California's Dixie Fire has created a plume so large that it's creating lightning strikes, which could set off new fires. When wildfire smoke is released into the air, it can be swept up and carried thousands of miles, bringing with it harmful pollutants."

See more from Very Well Health HERE:

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