Paul Douglas On Weather
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Brief Pause in the Summer Heat

Temps over the last several days have at or below average a majority of the last full week of July last week. 3 of the days we had daytime highs below 80F, which felt quite nice after a very warm middle part of the month.

Hotter & Drier Than Average July at MSP

Through the first 28 days of the month, Minnesota was the 22nd warmest and 19th driest July on record in Minneapolis. Temps have been running nearly +2F above average and precipitation has been nearly -2.50" below average.

11th Warmest Summer on Record

Since June 1st, the average temperature in the Twin Cities has been the 11th warmest on record. Note that last summer (through July 28th) it had been the 7th driest and 2nd warmest summer on record.

4th Driest Summer on Record at MSP

Prior to July 29th, here's how much rain has fallen across the region so far this summer (since June 1st). Note that the Twin Cities has seen only 2.30", which is nearly 6 inches below average and is the 4th driest starts to any Summer on record!

Mostly Dry Summer So Far

Many locations around the region are seeing precipitation deficits this summer so far. Minneapolis has the biggest deficit, nearly 6 inches below average for the summer. Meanwhile, Pierre, SD is nearly 3.5 inches above average precipitation for the summer so far.

Minnesota Drought Update

Here's the latest drought update across Minnesota. Thanks to mostly dry weather over the last few weeks, parts of Central Minnesota, including the Twin Cities, are now under severe and moderate drought conditions.

Severe Threat Sunday

"A frontal boundary will move across Minnesota Sunday afternoon and evening. A marginal risk of severe storms will be possible along this front."

Weather Outlook Ahead

Here's the weather outlook from AM Saturday to PM Monday. A weak storm system will slide through the region late weekend with a few showers and storms, some of which could be a little on the vigorous side across the northern half of Minnesota PM Sunday.

Precipitation Outlook Ahead

Precipitation amounts don't look to be too impressive around the region, but there could be some 0.50" to 1.00" tallies across the Arrowhead.

Weather Outlook on Saturday

The weather outlook for Saturday shows temps warming into the 80s and near 90s across much of the state, which will be nearly +5F to +10F above average for the end of July. Temps in the central Dakotas will warm into the mid 90s. Some of this heat will bubble into our neck of the woods by next week.

Weather Outlook Saturday

The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Saturday shows temps warming to near 90F with plenty of sweaty sunshine. Winds will start to pick up out of the SSW through the day, which will act like a heat pump over the next few days.

Meteograms for Minneapolis

The hourly forecast for Minneapolis on Saturday shows temperatures starting in the low/mid 60s and warming to near 90F by the afternoon. Hot sunshine will continue to through the day with little cloud cover into the afternoon. SW winds will gust up close to 20mph especially during the afternoon.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows above average temperatures returning this weekend and into the first full week of August. The hottest day could be Wednesday with readings approaching the century mark once again.

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows above average temperatures over the next 5 to 7 days. The hottest readings will move in during the 2nd half of next week with highs approaching 100F Wednesday and again Friday. Stay tuned.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

According to the NBM & ECMWF extended temperature outlook, temps will warm to well above average temps through the weekend and into the first full week of August.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows above average temps for much of the nation with the exception of the Desert Southwest, where monsoon storms will be possible.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather in place across the Southwest, but drier weather will settle in across the Central US.

Symptoms Of A Warming World More Obvious Now
By Paul Douglas

"Paul, must the weather report be political? Are heat, drought and flash floods really linked to climate change?" It's not politics, it's data. We've always had heatwaves, floods and debilitating drought. But overlayed over natural variability is an undeniable warming signal that is making extremes even more extreme over time.

The World Weather Attribution Group estimates that climate change made the recent heatwave in the UK (104.5F in London) 10 times more likely. The U.S. National Climate Assessment finds heavy rainfall is now about 20% to 40% more likely in Kentucky than it was around 1900. Catastrophic flooding struck St. Louis and southeast Kentucky earlier this week, with deadly results. We ignore science and real trends at our own peril.

90s will return next week; the European model predicts 100F the first Saturday of August. Not sure it'll get THAT hot, but there's little doubt that heat will amp up again next week.

A few T-storms late Sunday won't be enough to pull us out of a deepening drought.

Extended Forecast

SATURDAY: Sunny and hot Winds: SW 10-15. High: 90.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear, mild and quiet. Winds: SSW 5-10. Low: 71.

SUNDAY: Sticky sun, strong T-storms late. Winds: SW 8-13. High: 90.

MONDAY: Sunny with slight relief. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 68. High: 86.

TUESDAY: Muggy with T-storms up north. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 67. High: 94.

WEDNESDAY: Free sauna. Few T-storms around. Winds: W 7-12. Wake-up: 73. High: 93.

THURSDAY: Relentless sunshine. Winds: NE 5-10. Wake-up: 68. High: 91.

FRIDAY: Sweaty sunshine, stray T-storm. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 72. High: 92.

This Day in Weather History

July 30th

1971: A cool spell across Minnesota brings frost to northern Minnesota. Freezing temperatures are reported as far south as Pipestone.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

July 30th

Average High: 83F (Record: 100F set in 1933)

Average Low: 65F (Record: 50F set in 1889 & 1971)

Record Rainfall: 1.65" set in 1872

Record Snowfall: None

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

July 30th

Sunrise: 5:56am

Sunset: 8:42pm

Hours of Daylight: ~14 hours & 45 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 19 seconds

Daylight LOST since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 52 minutes

Moon Phase for July 30th at Midnight

2.5 Days Since New Moon

See more from HERE:

National High Temps Saturday

The weather outlook on Saturday shows well above average temps across the Pacific Northwest, where record highs will be possible. Readings across the Central US will be cooler than average thanks to widespread showers and storms.

National Weather Outlook

Weather conditions through the week will be quite active from the Southwest to the Central US. There could be a few strong to severe storms, but the main threat will be heavy rainfall and flooding.

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavier precipitation will be found from the Desert Southwest to the Mid-Atlantic States with localized areas of rainfall and flooding. There will also be areas of heavy rain across Canada.

Climate Stories

"Carbon offsets alone won't make flying climate-friendly"

"Jet A-1, a straw-colored, kerosene-based fuel used in most big airplanes, is a difficult substance to replace. It's packed with energy; per unit of weight, at least 60 times as much as the lithium-ion batteries used to propel electric cars. It's also terrible for the climate. So as the aviation industry has gradually climbed aboard global pledges to get rid of carbon emissions, it has mostly promised to make up for its damage elsewhere—through offsets that might involve planting trees, restoring wetlands, or paying people to preserve ecosystems that otherwise would have been razed. But according to a growing body of research, those efforts leave something out: Most of the planet-warming effects of flying aren't from carbon dioxide."

See more from ArsTechnica HERE:

"NASA Delayed the Psyche Launch. Here's Why That's a Big Deal"

"FOR YEARS, LINDY Elkins-Tanton had been looking forward to blasting a probe to the metallic asteroid Psyche, which is orbiting about 230 million miles away and may be the remains of a protoplanet whose surface was smashed to bits eons ago. She and her team designed and assembled the NASA spacecraft—also called Psyche—and booked a ride for it on a SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket. Launch day was supposed to come sometime between August and early October."

See more from Wired HERE:

"Is this heat climate change or just weather?"

"We've all seen the doomsday headlines: London experienced its highest-ever recorded temperatures this week. Last month, Yellowstone flooded in a way never seen before. And two of the four hottest recorded days in Salt Lake City history have occurred over the past two summers, including in recent weeks. Regardless of political beliefs around climate change, it's obvious that changes are happening — and somewhat rapidly. We're also still seeing cold days that climate skeptics are using as attempts to disprove climate change — like when outgoing U.S. Sen. Jim Inhofe famously brought a snowball to the Senate floor. And while climate activists blamed last year's Texas cold snap on climate change, climate skeptics used the historic cold as an example of how climate change couldn't be real."

See more from Deseret HERE:

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