Paul Douglas On Weather
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Sunny, Breezy Monday

It's going to be another bright, sunshiny day in the Twin Cities on our Monday, with morning temperatures in the low 50s and highs climbing right to around 70F.

A quiet day of weather is expected statewide (besides some strong winds, more on that below) with mostly sunny skies. Highs will range from the 50s up north (up to 15F degrees below average for some) to the 70s (slightly above average) in southern areas.

We will watch some strong wind gusts across the state - particularly in central and southern Minnesota where we could see gusts out of the northwest at 25-30 mph. It is worth noting that although we saw all that rain over the past week, these strong winds along with low humidity values will lead to elevated fire danger.


Cool First Half Of The Week

Cooler conditions will continue into Tuesday as highs only make it into the mid-60s in the metro - around 5F degrees below average. That will also come with the threat of some showers, mainly in the afternoon hours into Tuesday Night. We then start a quick warming trend with highs around 70F Wednesday and then mid-70s Thursday. Behind storms late Thursday/Thursday Night, we'll see temperatures fall back into the 60s Friday and potentially not making it out of the 50s next Saturday!


Mostly 60s And 70s Through The Rest Of May

And as we look at the extended outlook, which now goes through the end of May, it shows the majority of highs in the 60s and 70s, with a chance at 80F on Thursday ahead of storms and potentially a few 50s early this upcoming weekend and maybe a time or two into the next week.


Severe Threat Thursday

Loop: Forecast radar every three hours from 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM Friday.

With the warmer weather on Thursday, we will watch a system move across the upper Midwest bringing the threat of showers and thunderstorms along with it, especially late in the day into the overnight hours.

A few of those could be on the strong side, with the equivalent of a Slight Risk of severe weather (threat level 2 of 5) already in place. All severe weather threats could be possible. We'll have more on this as we head through the next several days.


Wet, Warm Start To May

It's been a wet and warm start to the month of May here in the Twin Cities. Through the 14th, we've picked up 2.13" of rain (tied for the 29th wettest May 1-14th on record). Our average temperature is the 25th warmest start on record with an average temperature of 4.1F degrees above average.

With the heavy rain we have received the past week, areas of central and northern Minnesota are a good 1-5" above average for the month so far. The 5.82" of rain this month in St. Cloud so far is the 2nd wettest May to date on record.


No Sign of Persistent Summer Heat Yet
By Paul Douglas

Bet I can make you groan? Far northwestern Minnesota may pick up a few inches of slushy snow on Friday. I really thought I was done staring at weather model snowfall accumulations. Good grief.

You think Minnesota is experiencing a reluctant spring? Last Thursday, when the MSP metro hit a record 92F, snow flurries were reported at Bismarck, North Dakota.

The first half of May is running about 4 degrees warmer than average in the Twin Cities. An annoyingly persistent wind blows today with blue sky and highs near 70. Showers return Tuesday and Wednesday, with a few heavier T-storms blossoming to life Thursday. Conditions will be marginal, but severe storms can't be ruled out. An unusually intense, March-like storm will spin up Friday, dropping plowable amounts of snow on North Dakota, with a few inches for the northern Red River Valley of Minnesota. Have a nice day.

A cool correction is likely next weekend with highs in the 50s.<p>Public service reminder: it is acceptable to wear a light jacket with shorts.


Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Sunny and breezy. Wake up 54. High 70. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 15-25 mph.

TUESDAY: Clouds increase, stray shower. Wake up 49. High 66. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Peeks of sun, a few pop-up showers. Wake up 50. High 70. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind W 5-10 mph.

THURSDAY: Milder, strong T-storms arrive late. Wake up 57. High 77. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind S 15-25 mph.

FRIDAY: Windy and raw, few PM showers. Wake up 57. High 62. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind W 20-45 mph.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy, feels like late March. Wake up 57. High 52. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 15-30 mph.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny with lighter winds. Wake up 44. High 59. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 7-12 mph.


Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
May 16th

*Length Of Day: 14 hours, 53 minutes, and 43 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: 2 minutes and 14 seconds

*When Do We See 15 Hours Of Daylight: May 19th (15 hours, 0 minutes, 10 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/Before 5:30 AM?: May 30th (5:30 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/After 9 PM?: June 12th (9:00 PM)


This Day in Weather History
May 16th

1934: An extreme hot spell results in temperatures over 100 across parts of Minnesota, and record highs of 94 in St. Cloud and Minneapolis.


National Weather Forecast

On Monday, showers and storms will be possible across the eastern United States. Some of them in the Northeast could be strong. A few scattered storms will be possible from the Northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest and some rain is possible in the Pacific Northwest.

The heaviest rain through Tuesday will be in portions of the Northeast, but rainfall amounts in most of the country (outside downpours from thunderstorms) should remain below 3". The best chance of any snow (maybe a few inches) will be in the Cascades.


Texans asked to turn up thermostats after sweltering heat knocks six power plants offline

More from CNN: "With an early-season heat wave searing much of Texas over the weekend, the nonprofit that manages power to more than 26 million customers wants them to turn up their thermostats. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) made the appeal in a statement Friday, saying that soaring temperatures increased demand and caused six power generation facilities to trip offline. That resulted in the loss of about 2,900 megawatts of electricity. "We're asking Texans to conserve power when they can by setting their thermostats to 78-degrees or above and avoiding the usage of large appliances (such as dishwashers, washers and dryers) during peak hours between 3 p.m. and 8 p.m. through the weekend," interim CEO Brad Jones said in the statement."

For better forecasts, hurricane hunters probe deep into storms

More from The Washington Post: "Hurricane Ida was personal for Air Force pilot Kendall Dunn. The Category 4 storm — the strongest Atlantic hurricane to make landfall last year — was barreling toward his family's home in southern Louisiana. He wondered if he had purchased enough gas for his family and told his nephew to evacuate. But as his loved ones drove away from the storm, he steered a plane toward its center. Dunn is part of a five-person crew — known as "Hurricane Hunters" — onboard the WC-130 Hercules aircraft that flies into storms to gather data on wind speeds, pressure and moisture. While satellites in space are one of the main methods for monitoring hurricanes, direct aircraft observation helps forecasters better determine the storm's potential growth, structure and effects on land. Their data combined with satellite observations also feed models, which project the storm's path and intensity."

US solar installations could fall 50% or more under new tariffs

More from Canary Media: "The actions of a tiny equipment supplier are leading to tens of gigawatts of solar power not being deployed in the U.S. The solar-panel manufacturer Auxin Solar filed a trade complaint earlier this year that triggered an investigation by the U.S. Commerce Department into whether tariffs should be imposed on solar modules imported from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam, which have been supplying about 80 percent of the solar panels installed in the U.S. If such tariffs are levied, the amount of solar power capacity deployed in the U.S. this year and next could be slashed almost in half, the Solar Energy Industries Association estimates, based on a survey of solar and storage companies."


Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser