Paul Douglas On Weather
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Soggy Saturday For Some

Interestingly, Saturday was one of the top 10 wettest days at MSP so far this year. The tweet below from the NWS Twin Cities suggested that 0.55" of rain had fallen at the MSP Airport through 11am, which was tied for the 8th wettest day so far this year.

Wettest Days at Minneapolis So Far This Year

Prior to Saturday, here were the 20 wettest days of 2022 at MSP. There has only been 1 day with more than 1" of precipitation so far this year and only 8 days with a 0.50" or more. Saturday was the 9th day of at least 0.50" or more.

Weather Outlook

Here's the weather outlook from AM Sunday to PM Wednesday. We'll see lingering showers and storms across parts of the region on Sunday with the heaviest rains farther south. A bubble of high pressure moves in through the first half of next week, which will keep skies sunny and temperatures more comfortable. There could be an isolated t-storm PM Wednesday north and east.

Precipitation Potential

The heaviest rains from Saturday into Sunday will generally stay across southern Minnesota into Wisconsin. The southern Twin Cities metro could get clipped with some decent precipitation, but again the greatest flooding risk will remain across the southern part of the state.

Minnesota Drought Update

Here's the latest drought update across Minnesota. Severe drought has expanded from nearly 1.5% last week to 4% this week, while moderate drought has expanded from nearly 7% to 14%.

Weather Outlook on Sunday

The weather outlook for Sunday shows lingering showers and storms across the southern half of the with highs only warming into the 60s and 70s, which will be nearly -5F to -10F below average for early August.

Weather Outlook Sunday

The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Sunday will still be somewhat unsettled with scattered showers and storms with pockets of locally have rains, especially in southern Minnesota.

Meteograms for Minneapolis

The hourly forecast for Minneapolis on Saturday shows temperatures starting in the mid 60s and warming into the mid 70s by the afternoon. North to northeasterly winds will be a bit breezy with gusts near 15mph to 20mph through the day.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows near average temperatures returning next week. We'll still be slightly cooler than average Sunday and Monday as our latest storm system pushes through.

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows 70s for highs on Sunday and Monday with near average temps returning next week. It also appears that we'll have another stretch of mostly dry weather starting Monday into next weekend.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

According to the NBM & ECMWF extended temperature outlook, temperatures Sunday and Monday will be a little cooler than it was last week. We'll see temps gradually warm to above average levels once again late week and into next week. There could even be a few more 90s!

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows above average temps for much of the nation with the exception of the Desert Southwest, where monsoon storms will be possible and also across the Northeast.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather in place across the Southwest, but drier weather will settle in across the Central US and into the Great Lakes.

Lightning Safety: What Not To Do
By Paul Douglas

Although they provide essential rain during the summer months, any and all thunderstorms - even those not "severe" - are potentially deadly. Cloud to ground lightning strikes with no warning.

The heartbreaking deaths of 3 tourists reportedly seeking shelter under a tree near the White House in D.C. was a gut punch. A shelter or vehicle offers adequate protection, but according to NOAA: "Standing underneath or near a tree is the second most dangerous place to be during a thunderstorm; the most dangerous is being outside in an open space."

There are no great alternatives when lightning flickers in the woods. When I camp I monitor Doppler on my phone (if there's a cell signal) and make a mad dash to the car or nearby restroom, for added protection.

2-4" rains prompted a Flood Watch for southeast Minnesota. Heaviest rains stay just south of MSP, but showers and T-storms through tonight may drop another .5 to 1" locally.

A touch of September today and Monday gives way to low 90s by the end of this week.

Extended Forecast

SUNDAY: Cooler. Few T-storms. Winds: NE 8-13. High: 74.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Lingering shower or storm. Winds: NNE 5-10. Low: 57.

MONDAY: Partly sunny and pleasant. Winds: N 8-13. High: 77.

TUESDAY: Sunny and warmer. Winds: SW 7-12. Wake-up: 62. High: 84.

WEDNESDAY: Blue skies, light winds. Winds: SW 5-10. Wake-up: 65. High: 86.

THURSDAY: Warm sunshine. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 66. High: 87.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Some will like it hot. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 71. High: 91.

SATURDAY: Morning storms, PM clearing. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 73. High: 92.

This Day in Weather History

August 7th

1968: 7.09 inches of rain falls at Mankato. 1,200 homes are damaged. Highways 169 and 22 are blocked by mudslides.

1955: The climate record of George W. Richards of Maple Plain ends. He recorded weather data with lively notations on phenology and weather events. He began taking observations when he was eleven in 1883. He continued to take observations for 72 years, with 66 years as a National Weather Service Cooperator.

1896: The final day of a massive heat wave brings highs of 104 to Le Sueur and Mazeppa.

1863: A Forest City observer sees what he calls a 'perfect tornado.' He noted that it 'drove principally from west to east and lasted about one half hour.'

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

August 7th

Average High: 82F (Record: 98F set in 2001)

Average Low: 64F (Record: 45F set in 1972)

Record Rainfall: 2.29" set in 1984

Record Snowfall: None

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

August 7th

Sunrise: 6:05am

Sunset: 8:31pm

Hours of Daylight: ~14 hours & 25 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 34 seconds

Daylight LOST since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 1 hour & 12 minutes

Moon Phase for August 7th at Midnight

2.8 Days Since First Quarter Moon

See more from HERE:

National High Temps Sunday

The weather outlook on Sunday shows well above average temps once again in the Pacific Northwest with record to near record highs possible once again. However, cooler temps will be in place across the Midwest and High Plains with scattered showers and storms.

National Weather Outlook

Weather conditions through PM Monday will be unsettled across the Central US as a slow moving front sags south with scattered showers and storms. Some of the storms could be strong, but locally heavy rainfall will be the primary concern with isolated flood concerns. There will also be ongoing monsoon storms in the Southwest.

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavier precipitation will be found in the Desert Southwest with some monsoon storms. There could also be heavier pockets of rain from the Midwest and Great Lakes south to the Gulf Coast States.

Climate Stories

"Future Melting Away as Water Crisis Hits Northwest Corner of India"

"On a cold, bright morning in early March, a small group of women and children carried empty jerry cans up an icy slope in Kumik, one of the oldest and most remote villages in northwest India's Zanskar Valley. Despite the sun bearing down overhead, the air was cold, only 14 degrees Fahrenheit. Their destination was the mouth of a narrow, black water pipe, buried beneath a fresh layer of snow. When they reached the small mound of rocks marking the site, they took turns filling their vessels. The process was arduous. It can take up to 10 minutes to fill a 5-gallon container. In a village that once enjoyed abundant water resources, it was all that was left."

See more from New / Lines Magazine HERE:

"Wildfires Have Burned Through California's 100-Year Carbon Insurance in 10 Years, Study Finds"

"California's carbon offset program dedicated to preserving carbon-capturing forests to store CO2 is "dangerously undercapitalized" with 95 percent of the buffer planned for 100 years of wildfires depleted after less than a decade, a new study warns. The peer-reviewed paper, published by researchers from the non-profit CarbonPlan on Friday in the peer-reviewed journal Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, raises significant and possibly existential concerns about the merits of carbon offset programs, specifically ones that pay landowners to preserve forests because of the carbon-harvesting properties of trees. The theory behind such programs is that by paying people or companies to protect trees that would otherwise be cut down, carbon is stored in the trees, offsetting a predetermined amount of CO2 emissions elsewhere."

See more from Vice HERE:

"Melt record set in rapidly warming Svalbard, Norway"

"Why it matters: The meltwater is pouring into the Atlantic Ocean, where it helps to raise sea levels. The rapid melt this year demonstrates Svalbard's status as one of the fastest warming places in the Northern Hemisphere, at about three times the rate of lower latitudes. Zoom in: According to Xavier Fettweis, a geography professor at the University of Liège, the mean meltwater runoff is 42.6 billion metric tons in 2022, which is 3.5 times larger than average and 1.4 times larger than the previous record, set in 2018. Svalbard set a record on July 17 for its highest recorded melt volume, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This was due to a push of relatively mild air well north of Scandinavia and was related to a melt pulse in northern Greenland as well. Fettweis said the meltwater runoff anomaly is five times the variability from year to year during the 1981-2010 period, which he says is "statistically unlikely." "Only a changing climate can explain this," he said via email."

See more from Axios HERE:

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