Paul Douglas On Weather
See more of the story

Strong Storms Thursday Night

Forecast loop from 7 PM Thursday to 7 AM Friday.

Just a note as we head through the rest of the evening and into the overnight hours here on Thursday that we are watching the potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms across central and northern Minnesota. As you can see in the loop above, storms look to mainly fizzle out by the Friday morning hours.

These storms could mainly contain damaging winds and some large hail, but an isolated tornado can't be ruled out either. Due to the potential of severe weather, up to a Slight risk (threat level 2 of 5) of severe weather is in place.


A Few Late Day Storms, Otherwise Sunny And 90s Friday

While we will start Friday off sunny in the metro, we can't rule out a few rogue showers or storms Friday afternoon (my thought is mainly in the late afternoon hours) - but a better chance of storms exists heading into the overnight hours. Morning temperatures start off in the 70s with highs climbing to the low 90s.

Highs across the state will climb into the 80s and low 90s in most locations (70s along the North Shore) on Friday. The best chances of rain would be during the early morning and again late afternoon into overnight hours (more on the afternoon/overnight round below).


Strong Storms Again Friday Night

Forecast loop from 4 PM Friday to 7 AM Saturday.

As we head later into Friday and Friday night, we will be watching a cold front approaching the state that will bring the next round of strong to severe thunderstorms. You can see already by the dinner hour a line of storms, likely capable of damaging winds, that will move into northwestern Minnesota. While the line looks to fizzle a bit into the overnight hours as it moves southeast, we could see more strong storms develop/move into southern Minnesota.

Due to the threat of severe weather with that line of storms west/northwest of the metro, a Slight Risk (threat level 2 of 5) is in place. While damaging winds look to be the primary threat, hail and an isolated tornado can't be ruled out across this region. Across the Marginal Risk (threat level 1 of 5), wind and hail are the main threats.

With that line of storms, especially off to the northwest, we will also have to watch the potential of heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding. A Slight Risk (threat level 2/4) of excessive rain that leads to flash flooding is in place.


Cooler This Weekend

Behind that cold front, we'll see some cooler temperatures move right on in as we head toward the weekend. Saturday could be a little wet with a couple of rounds of rain - some leftover rain in the morning from the Friday night hours, and another in the midday/early afternoon timeframe - with highs in the 80s. Sunnier skies come in for Sunday with temperatures in the mid-70s. You can see, though, that warmer weather starts to make a return early next week.


Abnormally Dry Across The Metro

The latest drought update was released on Thursday, and we did have an introduction of abnormally dry conditions pop up right over the metro. Now 10.8% of the state is considered abnormally dry.

Some of this can be contributed to soils drying out with our recent winds and heat, as is shown above from NASA's SPoRT-LIS in the topsoil layer across southern Minnesota.


Weather Is A Major Cause of Airline Delays
By Paul Douglas

What a crazy summer. I take out a small home equity line every time I fill up for gas. Air travel is gamble. You spin the wheel, light a candle and hope you're one of the lucky ones.

FAA officials may disagree, but my data shows that summer thunderstorms cause more delays than winter snow and ice, especially at smaller airports around the US. So when the gate agent smiles through gritted teeth and blames the weather, she may be right. Always the weather.

Expect low 90s and sticky dew points in the 60s today; atmospheric fuel for a possible swarm of strong to severe thunderstorms later on. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center says the best chance of hail and damaging winds will be over roughly the western half of Minnesota.

Half an inch of rain may fall tonight into Saturday, when a cooler front will wring a few more showers and storms out of an irritable sky. Sunday will feel like September, with a stiff wind and afternoon temperatures hovering near 70F. I see 80s for the 4th of July, more 90s in 10-15 days.


Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

FRIDAY: Sticky, Strong PM T-storms. Wake up 73. High 92. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

SATURDAY: Unsettled, few showers, T-showers. Wake up 72. High 83. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind W 8-13 mph.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny, windy and cool. Wake up 61. High 72. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 15-25 mph.

MONDAY: Bright sunshine, less wind. Wake up 59. High 81. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.

TUESDAY: AM sun, few PM T-showers. Wake up 63. High 83. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind SW 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Some sunshine, muggy. Wake up 67. High 90. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 10-15 mph.

THURSDAY: Few T-storms in the area. Wake up 70. High 81. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.


Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
June 24th

*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 36 minutes, and 25 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 12 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 15 Hours Of Daylight?: July 24 (14 hours, 58 minutes, 52 seconds)
*When Does The Sun Start Rising At/After 6 AM?: August 3rd (6:00 AM)
*Latest Sunset?: June 20 - July 2 (9:03 PM)


This Day in Weather History
June 24th

2002: Heavy rains fall on already saturated ground, leading to flooding. 5.50 inches fall at Delano, and half of a mobile home park at Howard Lake is evacuated due to rising water.

1972: Frost develops across northeast Minnesota. Duluth has a low of 35 and Tower bottoms out at 32.


National Weather Forecast

On Friday, a cold front approaching the Upper Midwest will spark off showers and thunderstorms - some of which could be strong. Rain will also be possible in the Southeast and the Southwest.

Up to 3" of rain could fall through Saturday across portions of Florida, the Southwest, the Upper Midwest, and portions of New England.


The changing face of hurricane fatalities

More from Yale Climate Connections: "It's time to revisit how we see Americans falling prey to hurricanes, according to new data from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). There's always the risk of a storm-surge catastrophe like 2005's Katrina, or of Category 5 winds slamming into poorly built homes, as with Andrew in 1992. Yet most U.S. hurricane deaths in recent years can be chalked up to factors that lie beyond these well-recognized threats. ... Analyzing all fatalities caused by hurricanes between 2017 and 2021 in the contiguous United States, Brennan, Rhome, and colleagues found that indirect deaths outnumbered direct deaths by 299 to 271. (Had this analysis included Puerto Rico, the indirect-death numbers would have been overwhelmed by 2017's Hurricane Maria. The initial death toll was 64, but the final official toll incorporated an estimate of more than 2,900 hurricane-related deaths during the six months after Maria.)"

Oil giants criticized for uneven clean energy investment

More from Axios: "Oil companies have boosted clean energy investment, but it's unevenly spread in the industry and the sector should parlay big profits into more aggressive initiatives, the International Energy Agency said. Why it matters: "High prices are generating an unprecedented windfall," IEA said in a new report. "This is a once-in-a-generation opportunity for producer economies to fund diversification activities and for the major oil and gas companies to deliver more diversified spending.""

Study reveals how climate change can significantly impact carbon-rich ecosystem

More from the University of Portsmouth: "Mangrove forests play a vital role in the health of our planet. The trees and shrubs absorb a substantial amount of greenhouse gas emissions, help protect communities from rising sea levels, and act as nurseries for baby fish. These coastal forests are the second most carbon rich ecosystem in the world, being able to store more than 1,000 tons of carbon in just one hectare; that's about the size of a football pitch. They do this by capturing the chemical element from the air and storing it in leaves, branches, trunks and roots. But despite environmental efforts to prevent the loss of these important ecosystems, they are still at risk. A new study, by the University of Portsmouth and facilitated by research organisation Operation Wallacea, has revealed how the stored carbon from atmospheric CO2 in large woody debris is processed by organisms. The findings suggest climate change can significantly impact this 'blue carbon' system."


Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser