WASHINGTON - The latest estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau confirm that Minnesota could lose a congressional seat in 2010.
Minnesota is still gaining population, but barely. Meanwhile, Sun Belt states such as Florida continue to grow rapidly, staking a claim on increased representation in Congress.
Although the current estimates show Minnesota on the cusp of losing a seat, its fate won't be decided until the Census Bureau releases hard numbers from its 2010 survey late that year. State demographer Tom Gillaspy said Washington and Minnesota have virtually identical populations.
"If you extrapolate last year's growth rate out to 2010 it's basically a dead heat between Minnesota and Washington," Gillaspy said. "It still looks like we're just below the cutoff point, but it looks pretty close. It's certainly within the margin of error of estimates."
The state's population is estimated to have increased about eight-tenths of a percent from July 1, 2006, to July 1 of this year, adding about 43,000 residents.
Those numbers rank it the 26th in growth among the 50 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, and second only to South Dakota in the Midwest.
Wisconsin went from nine House seats to eight after the 2000 census, and Iowa is expected to lose one of its five seats after the upcoming survey, potentially giving the Midwest less clout on legislation that affects the region.
If Minnesota loses a House seat after 2010, it also would lessen the state's impact in presidential elections, because the number of Electoral College votes is based on the number of senators and representatives in Congress.
Politics of redistricting
Minnesota has had eight congressional districts since 1960, when it dropped from nine. The state Legislature will have to redraw House district lines before the 2012 election, a task that always brings out partisan claws. Should the number of Minnesotans in the House go down to seven, the legislative infighting will be even more intense: If none of the eight representatives retires after 2010, then two incumbents would end up running against each other in the same district.
Some have suggested combining the traditionally Democratic 4th and 5th districts, which encompass St. Paul and Minneapolis, to create one metro district. Doing so might give more power to the Republicans, who tend to do well in the suburbs, because Democratic Reps. Keith Ellison and Betty McCollum would find themselves in the combined district.
"What exactly the districts would look like gets to be a very political question," Gillaspy said. "There's a tremendous number of possible ways to draw the congressional seats."
Minnesota's redistricting battle for state-level seats after the 2000 election had to be resolved in court.
The Census Bureau estimates are based on births, deaths and migration.
The fastest-growing states continue to be in the Rocky Mountains and the Southeast. Texas also is still attracting new residents at a rapid rate.
Nevada had the country's greatest gains in population, increasing by 2.9 percent to 2.6 million in 12 months. Nevada held that title for 19 straight years before being bumped off by Arizona last year. Arizona is the second-fastest-growing state, according to the current estimate, with a population increase of 2.8 percent to 6.3 million.
2 states lost population
Only two states lost population. Michigan dipped by three-tenths of a percent and Rhode Island saw a decrease of four-tenths of a percent.
Louisiana appears to be rebounding from the devastation of Hurricane Katrina, gaining 50,000 residents. After the storm hit in August 2005, the bureau estimated that the state lost 250,000 residents.
California remains the nation's most populous state with about 37 million people. It attracted about 300,000 new residents, second to Texas numerically, but 25th fastest by rate of growth.
The total U.S. population was estimated at 301.6 million.
Staff writer Lora Pabst and the Associated Press contributed to this report. Nina Petersen-Perlman • 202-408-2723
