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SLIGHT Severe Threat (2 out of 5) PM Monday
According to NOAA's Strom Prediction Center, there is a SLIGHT RISK of severe storms (2 out of 5 on the severe scale) PM Monday.
Here's more info from NOAA's SPC:
"Weak height falls will occur across the region late today owing to the influence of an eastward-moving shortwave trough crossing the Canadian prairies. A cold front will spread southeastward across the region and roughly bisect Minnesota in a northeast/southwest orientation by around early evening (00Z). A stout elevated mixed layer will exist atop modest early springtime moisture, with surface dewpoints within the warm sector to generally be no higher than the lower 50s around peak heating/mixing. Regional 12Z soundings sampled this limited moisture, with a relative regional maximum noted with the 12Z Topeka sounding sampling around a 9 g/kg mean-mixing ratio and a 9C dewpoint just below 850 mb. Given the modest moisture and the degree of capping, it remains a bit uncertain about the likelihood/coverage of storms across parts of the current categorical Slight Risk. However, at least isolated deep convective development is plausible late this afternoon and especially early evening, particularly across central Minnesota in vicinity of a surface triple point. While initially weak, mid-level winds should strengthen by early/mid-evening and contribute to upwards of 30-40 kt effective shear. Where storms do form, this could support a few semi-high-based supercells aside from multicellular clusters. A combination of severe hail and wind are expected to be the primary hazards as storms spread eastward this evening. A cluster of slightly elevated strong/locally severe storms could persist into the overnight across western/northern Wisconsin and possibly Upper Michigan."
SLIGHT Severe Threat PM Monday
Here is the HRRR simulated radar from around 1PM Monday to 1AM Thursday. According to this weather model, a line showers and storms will develop late Monday across western Minnesota and move into central/eastern Minnesota into the evening and overnight time frame. The main concern with these particular storms would be isolated large hail and damaging wind events, but the severe threat will be fairly minimal.
Soggy Week Ahead
The first full week of April will be quite soggy as a large area of low pressure slowly moves through the region. The weather outlook from AM Saturday to AM Sunday shows the storm slowly swirling through the region with the heaviest rains pushing through PM Tuesday - Wednesday and into Thursday. Light showers could linger into through Friday, but the weekend ahead looks mostly dry and with more sunshine.
Soggy Week Ahead
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the precipitation potential through the week ahead could feature some 1" to 2" rainfall tallies or more. Some of the heaviest tallies could approach 3" if and where any thunderstorms develop.
Record Warmth on Monday
Prior to our soggy first full week of April 2021, high temps on Monday will be VERY with temps across much of the region warming to well above average levels. There could even be record high temps in a few spots, including in the Twin Cities. Note that the record high in the Twin Cities for April 5th is 80F, which was sent in 1991.
Average First 80F at MSP Airport
Our average first 80F high in the Twin Cities (over the last 30 years) typically happens on April 29th. The earliest 80F high temp was on St. Patrick's Day (March 17th) in 2012.
Monday Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
Here's a closer look at our weather conditions for Minneapolis on Monday. Temps will warm quickly to near 70F by midday with highs approaching 80F by the afternoon. Clouds will increase through the day with a chance of showers and storms late afternoon through the
Monday Meteograms
Here are the meteorgrams for Minneapolis on Monday. Temperatures will be VERY warm with highs topping out near 80F during the afternoon hours. Clouds will be on the increase through the day with chances of showers and storms late in day. Southerly winds will be a bit gusty with peak gusts approaching 20mph through the day.
Extended Temperature Outlook
Here's the extended temperature and weather outlook over the next 5 to 7 days. Monday's highs will be nearly +25F to +30F above average with highs approaching 80F in the Twin Cities, which would be a record for April 5th. A slow moving storm system will swirl through the region with widespread showers and storms PM Tuesday - Thursday, which will bring temps down to more normal levels through the first full week of April. Weather conditions by next weekend look better, drier and brighter.
2021 Ice Out Dates So Far
March 2021 as the 8th warmest March on record at MSP with temps running +7.7F above average. Windy and warmer than average temps have allowed many lakes across the state to go ice free nearly 2 weeks earlier than normal. Lake Minnetonka was deemed ice free as of Tuesday, March 30th; the average ice out for Lake Minnetonka is around April 13th.
See more from the MN DNR HERE:
Average Ice Out Dates Across the State
Here's a look at the average ice out dates across the state. The orange markers across the southern part of the state indicate average ice out dates typically around the last week of March. We typically see average ice out across parts of central Minnesota and around the Twin Cities during the first couple of weeks of April. Folks across the northern third of the state typically see ice out closer to the start of May.
See more from the MN DNR HERE:
Spring Leaf Index
"How do you know when spring has begun? Is it the appearance of the first tiny leaves on the trees, or the first crocus plants peeping through the snow? The First Leaf and First Bloom Indices are synthetic measures of these early season events in plants, based on recent temperature conditions. These models allow us to track the progression of spring onset across the country. March 29, 2021 - Spring leaf out continues to spread north across the country. After arriving early in southern parts of Southwest and Southeast states, cold temperatures halted the progress of spring leaf out for several days across the northern part of the Southeast and Great Plains. Spring leaf out is now gaining momentum again as it moves into Midwest states but continues to be behind schedule in the mid-Atlantic. Parts of South Dakota and Montana are 2-3 weeks early. Spring bloom has arrived in parts of Southwest and Southeast states. Spring bloom is early in California and Arizona and patchy in Southeast states."
GDD Tracker - Crabgrass Preventer
Thanks to Michigan State University, the GDD Tracker tracks optimal times to put out Crabgrass Preventer for specific zip codes based on soil temps around the region. According to their model, areas in green below show that right now is when you should get Crabgrass Preventer out before it starts emerging this spring. Seems a little early, but recent VERY warm days have been warming up soil temps significantly and crabgrass germinates when soil temperatures hit about 55°F for 24-48 hours. The week ahead will be quite soggy with some 1" to 2" plus rainfall tallies possible. Next weekend looks drier and warmer, so you should be able to get your preventer down next week if needed.
See more from Michigan State University GDD Tracker HERE:
Extended Temperature Outlook
Here's the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis through the end of March and into the early part of April. Monday will feature well above average temperatures ahead of a sharp cold front that will drop temps to below average readings around midweek. Note that there will be a big warm up as we approach next weekend, which is the first weekend of April.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows temps warming to above average levels across much of the Central US through the first week of April
Mild Sun Gives Way to a Soaker This Week
By Paul Douglas
I must have been hallucinating (again). Boats and wave runners on the water April 3? In Minnesota? 70s, low humidity, a faint breath of wind, chirping birds. An atmospheric dream.
Some Aprils are character-building (26" in April 2018 fits that definition) but ice-out is coming earlier on area lakes. Tad Smith on Twitter reminded me that Lake Minnetonka has seen ice-out the first week of April or earlier 5 times since 2012. A euphoric, 6 month boating season seems very likely.
A flawless Easter weekend gives way to a shot at 80 degrees later today. A swarm of thunderstorms tonight signals the arrival of slightly cooler air Tuesday. A southern storm spreads a pinwheel of rainy spokes into Minnesota late Tuesday into Saturday. ECMWF predicts 1-2 inch rainfall totals by Saturday, and 3" isn't out of the question south/west of MSP. Wednesday and Thursday appear to be the two wettest days right now.
Friday may be slightly drier for fans at Target Field, with 50s by late week. Spring has, in fact, sprung!
Extended Forecast
MONDAY: Warm sun, T-storms late. Winds: S 10-15. High: 80.
MONDAY NIGHT: T-Showers likely before 3AM. Winds: S 10-20. Low: 51.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy and cooler. Winds: NE 8-13. High: 63.
WEDNESDAY: Heavier showers and T-storms likely. Winds: E 10-15. Wake-up: 51. High: 63.
THURSDAY: Periods of rain, heavy at times. Winds: E 8-13. Wake-up: 52. High: 60.
FRIDAY: Peeks of sun, few pop-up showers. Winds: W 10-15. Wake-up: 47. High: 58.
SATURDAY: Unsettled, another passing shower. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 45. High: 54.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny, a nicer day. Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 40. High: 61.
This Day in Weather History
April 5th
1999: Heavy snow falls over the Arrowhead, with 11 inches at Two Harbors.
1929: A tornado cuts a path from Lake Minnetonka through North Minneapolis and leaves six dead.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
April 5th
Average High: 52F (Record: 80F set in 1991)
Average Low: 32F (Record: 12F set in 1979)
Record Rainfall: 0.91" set in 1999
Record Snowfall: 1.5" set in 1964
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
April 5th
Sunrise: 6:46am
Sunset: 7:46pm
Hours of Daylight: ~12 hours & 39 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 3 minutes & 8 seconds
Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 4 hours & 15 minutes
Moon Phase for April 5th at Midnight
1.9 Days After Last Quarter Moon
What's in the Night Sky?
"On April 5, 6, 7 and 8, 2021, let the waning crescent moon help guide your eye to the largest and second-largest planets of the solar system: Jupiter and Saturn, respectively. Because day by day the moon always travels eastward (in the direction of sunrise) relative to the backdrop stars (and planets) of the zodiac, watch for the moon to sweep past Saturn and then Jupiter in the days ahead. Find out which constellations of the zodiac appear behind the moon at Heavens-Above. At present, the king planet Jupiter and the ringed planet Saturn both reside in front of the constellation Capricornus the Seagoat. Jupiter and Saturn, the 5th and 6th planets from the sun, respectively, also go eastward in front of the background stars of the zodiac, but much more slowly than the moon does. Whereas the moon takes some 27 1/3 days to go full circle in front of the constellations of the zodiac, it takes Jupiter nearly 12 years and Saturn nearly 30 years."
National High Temps Monday
Here's the weather outlook on Monday, VERY warm temps across much of the nation, which could include a few record highs from some folks in the Desert Southwest, including Phoenix, AZ to the Upper Midwest, including Minneapolis, MN.
Record Highs Possible on Monday
National Forecast Map For Monday
The weather map on Monday shows somewhat unsettled across parts of the Midwest and High Plains as we head through the day. Weather conditions will become more unsettled in the Central US through the week ahead.
National Weather Outlook
Here's the weather outlook through Tuesday. Another strong area of low pressure will begin to develop in the Rockies and slide out into the Plains through midweek. This will bring widespread areas of showers and storms to parts of the region with accumulating snow possible in the Rockies and across parts of the Plains.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook over the next 7 days shows areas of heavy rains across parts of the Upper Midwest through the week ahead. There could be some 1" to 3" liquid tallies across parts of Minnesota, including the Twin Cities! Meanwhile, areas of heavier rainfall will be possible in the Southeastern US with the Desert Southwest staying mostly dry over the next 7 days.
Extended Snowfall Outlook
Here's the extended snowfall outlook through the week ahead. Areas of heavy snowfall will be possible across parts of the Rockies and northern Cascade Range as our next storm system moves out into the Plains. As the storm moves east, there could be some accumulating snow across parts of western Nebraska and South Dakota.
Climate Stories
"Climate change ... always a bridesmaid"
"By 2050, many of climate change's worst projected impacts could be fully upon us—or fully upon our descendants. The question is, will a half-century of sustained manmade upheaval ever dominate the top of the news? I'm skeptical. Worldwide, COVID-19 has had a lock on Top Story for a year now. In the U.S., two horrid mass shootings, one with strongly racist overtones, prompted a flurry of headlines, and a week of outrage, feigned or otherwise, about arming or disarming the populace. Reporting on such stories is of course vital. But the press follows the public's attention span. In his long-awaited first press conference on March 25, President Biden fielded 10 questions from the White House Press corps. It was almost a no-brainer that climate change wouldn't make the cut. But wait a minute – neither did coronavirus. The shiny objets du jour included immigration, the filibuster, Afghanistan, China, and, of course, whether President Biden will run for a second term in 2024. The liberal press watchdog group Media Matters for America issues annual tallies of press coverage of climate-related issues. They found 2020 was the sparsest year for climate coverage on U.S. commercial cable news since 2016. Granted, the presidential election and the COVID-19 pandemic sucked the oxygen out of newsrooms. But the record Atlantic hurricane season, and multiple other extreme weather items, failed to blow any back in."
See more from Environmental Health News HERE:
"Climate change has cost 7 years of ag productivity growth"
"Despite important agricultural advancements to feed the world in the last 60 years, a Cornell-led study shows that global farming productivity is 21% lower than it could have been without climate change. This is the equivalent of losing about seven years of farm productivity increases since the 1960s. The future potential impacts of climate change on global crop production has been quantified in many scientific reports, but the historic influence of anthropogenic climate change on the agricultural sector had yet to be modeled. Now, a new study provides these insights: "Anthropogenic Climate Change Has Slowed Global Agricultural Productivity Growth," published April 1 in Nature Climate Change, was led by economist Ariel Ortiz-Bobea, associate professor in the Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management. "We find that climate change has basically wiped out about seven years of improvements in agricultural productivity over the past 60 years," Ortiz-Bobea said. "It is equivalent to pressing the pause button on productivity growth back in 2013 and experiencing no improvements since then. Anthropogenic climate change is already slowing us down." The scientists and economists developed an all-encompassing econometric model linking year-to-year changes in weather and productivity measures with output from the latest climate models over six decades to quantify the effect of recent human-caused climate change on what economists call "total factor productivity," a measure capturing overall productivity of the agricultural sector."
See more From Cornell University HERE:
"Life in a remote Alaskan community on the front line of climate change"
"A first-hand look at daily life in Whittier, Alaska, coping with a pandemic and climate change, and confronting daunting prospects of a Prince Williams Sound tsunami. WHITTIER, ALASKA – The world's high-latitude regions experience climate change at a rate twice as fast as the rest of the world. Nowhere is this more evident than in the Prince Williams Sound in South Central Alaska. This shelter body of water off the North Pacific is home to some of the tallest coastal mountains in the world and dominated by glaciers and icefields. But with the extreme warming and drier than average summers the cryosphere here has undergone a massive transformation. The fjords of Prince Williams Sound echo like thunder as glaciers calve off into the sea at an ever increasing rate. The ice loss from this region measures in the tens of billions of metric tons each year. For the roughly 200 year-round residents of Whittier, this loss amounts to far more than just a change in scenery. Daily life in Whittier, now with COVID and climate challenges. Whittier is a small, understated community nestled between the icefields of the Chugach Mountains and the shores of Prince Williams Sound. At its surface, the town is not much more than a port, a small collection of tin-roofed restaurants and shops, and the 14 story concrete apartment building that houses nearly everyone in town. There are no chain stores or private homes. The only way in or out of town by land is through a single lane two-mile long tunnel open only periodically throughout the day. Given a complicated arrangement with the Alaska Railroad, which shares it, the tunnel closes each night at 10:30, or earlier in the winter months, essentially "trapping" residents in town until morning."
See more from YALE Climate Connections HERE:
