Paul Douglas On Weather
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Precipitation Continues Tuesday Night Into Wednesday

Forecast loop from 7 PM Tuesday to 7 AM Thursday,

Our next Spring messy storm is impacting the region Tuesday Night into Wednesday:

  • Tuesday Night: Strong storms will be possible across parts of southwestern Minnesota. Icing will continue across parts of central Minnesota to the North Shore, with snow continuing in northern and western Minnesota.
  • Wednesday: Precipitation across the state changes over to snow. Southern Minnesota will see the least additional precipitation during this timeframe, with heavy snow continuing across northern Minnesota at times. Some snow squalls will be possible across northern parts of the state late Wednesday into Wednesday Night as the system tapers off.

The heaviest snow will continue to fall across northern Minnesota, where a band of 6-15" of snow is expected to fall. With strong winds (shown below), blowing and drifting snow will continue to be a major concern where snow falls.

Meanwhile, this is total freezing rain expected through mainly Wednesday morning. A band of at least a tenth of an inch of ice is possible from eastern South Dakota to the North Shore, with the potential of a quarter inch or more possible near/around the Twin Ports and into northern Wisconsin.

We also continue to watch strong winds across the region today into Wednesday. Some of the strongest winds Tuesday Night will be along the North Shore (50-60+ mph), with more widespread 40+ mph wind gusts across central and southern Minnesota on Wednesday. In areas where snow falls, this will lead to whiteout conditions. We will also watch the potential for power outages and other property damage (trees topping or limbs falling, etc).

Blizzard Warnings are in place across western and northern Minnesota due to the expected strong winds and heavy snowfall leading to reduced visibility. Winter Storm Warnings are in place from Alexandria to Brainerd to the North Shore and northward to the Canadian border for 6"+ of snow (or a heavy mix of snow and ice) along with gusty winds. Winter Weather Advisories are in place from southwestern Minnesota to the St. Cloud and Hinckley areas for lower amounts of snow and/or ice.

So taking a closer look at Wednesday in the metro, we will see windy weather with dropping temperatures. Any precipitation will start as some rain before tapering off as snow toward the midday hours.

Winds will be on the increase during the day, with gusts out of the west-southwest up to around 45 mph by the evening hours.

We will continue to watch precipitation across the state throughout the day on Wednesday, changing over to all snow with cooler temperatures moving in. Highs will range from the 20s in the Red River Valley to around 40F in southeastern Minnesota.

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Cooler, Still Breezy Thursday

Some snow showers will continue to impact northern Minnesota on Thursday, otherwise, it'll be calmer but still breezy. Mainly sunny skies are expected in the metro with highs in the upper 30s. With gusty westerly winds up to around 35 mph, it'll feel more like the 20s during the afternoon hours. It's no wonder that this lousy weather (though with no precipitation!) has caused the Twins Home Opener to be postponed to Friday.

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Warming Up Into The Holiday Weekend

Good Friday: A quiet day is expected with not-as-breezy winds (out of the east-southeast 5-15 mph) under mainly sunny skies. Highs will top off around 50F in the metro. This will be a much warmer - and less windy - day for the Twins Home Opener.

Friday Night: An isolated rain or snow shower will be possible over east-central Minnesota Friday Night - but any accumulation is expected to be minimal.

Saturday: The first 60F of the year is possible as we head into Saturday, once again under mainly sunny skies. Winds increase again, out of the southerly direction with gusts to 25 mph.

Easter Sunday: Another 60F degree day is expected on Sunday, though with more clouds than sun as we see a chance of a few showers around during the afternoon and evening hours. Sunday will also be breezy.

Here's a closer look at Easter Sunday. Again, I think a few showers or isolated thunderstorms could be around during the afternoon and evening hours, but we should see fine weather for any outdoor egg hunts in the morning hours. Otherwise, partly sunny skies are expected with strong southerly winds that could gust up to 30 mph.

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First 60s This Weekend

First 60F degree day/readings over the past 30 years

As shown above, the first 60F of the year is possible this weekend here in the Twin Cities. Over the past 30 years, the average first 60F occurs back in March - back on March 22nd. The last time it didn't occur until April was back in 2018 (on April 21st).

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Even Warmer Next Week?!?

While I hate to say this is the very last gasp of winter (we all know what can happen, especially after we jinx something), at least the longer-term outlook shows that hopefully is one of the very last gasps. Besides seeing low 60s this weekend, we could climb into at least the mid/upper 60s next week, with even a few shots of 70F! The average first 70F over the past 30 years is April 7th.

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A Spring Fever Watch Is Now In Effect
By Paul Douglas

30s to 60s in two days with a shot at 70s by Tuesday. What can possibly go wrong, and what time? I really wanted to enjoy this well-earned warm front. Spring surges of warmth often spark tornadoes and hail, but I'm more concerned about turbocharged warmth and rapid melting sparking significant river flooding.

NOAA's North Central River Forecast Center in Chanhassen is analyzing a myriad of factors when determining how high rivers will crest, including temperatures, past/future rainfall, water locked up in the snow and frost depth. Hydrology (river forecasting) is a science within a science, and I defer to the experts. If you've experienced spring flooding in the past you'll want to stay alert.

Expect windblown flakes today with gusts close to 50 mph. A chilly Thursday gives way to hints of spring Friday with sunshine and a shot at 50F for Twins fans at Target Field. 60s this weekend? Yep. Spring fever is imminent.

With 420 preliminary tornadoes, 2023 is in the top 3 years for twisters nationwide since 1950.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

WEDNESDAY: Flurries. Gusts to 50 mph. High 38 (early in the day, falling temperatures into the afternoon). Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind W 25-50 mph.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy and brisk. Wake up 24. High 36. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind W 15-30 mph.

FRIDAY: Sunny and springy by afternoon. Wake up 18. High 51. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SE 7-12 mph.

SATURDAY: Getting sunnier and milder. Wake up 36. High 62. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 10-20 mph.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny, hints of May. Wake up 45. High 65. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SW 10-20 mph.

MONDAY: Sunny and mild. Rapid snow melt. Wake up 48. High 67. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind W 10-15 mph.

TUESDAY: Warmth peaks. Seriously feverish. Wake up 51. High 73. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind S 10-15 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
April 5th

*Length Of Day: 12 hours, 59 minutes, and 2 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 6 seconds

*When do we see 13 Hours of Daylight?: April 6th (13 hours, 2 minutes, 7 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/Before 6:30 AM? April 14th (6:30 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/After 8 PM? April 17th (8:00 PM)

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This Day in Weather History
April 5th

1999: Heavy snow falls over the Arrowhead, with 11 inches at Two Harbors.

1929: A tornado cuts a path from Lake Minnetonka through North Minneapolis and leaves six dead.

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National Weather Forecast

The system impacting the central United States will continue to move eastward on Wednesday, producing strong storms from portions of the Great Lakes to the lower Mississippi Valley and snow/ice from the Upper Midwest to New England. Some areas of snow will also be possible in the Rockies, with rain and snow back into the Pacific Northwest.

From Tuesday through Thursday, heavy snow will continue to fall across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, with some areas seeing overall a foot or more of snow. Heavy rain will also fall across the southern United States, with 3"+ of rain possible through the middle of the week.

Snow will continue to fall across the Upper Midwest into Wednesday, with overall multi-day totals of a foot or more possible from the Dakotas into northern Minnesota. With strong wind gusts over 40 mph continuing, blowing and drifting snow will continue to be a concern with whiteout conditions for some.

The severe weather threat will continue eastward into Wednesday, with an Enhanced Risk of severe weather (threat level 3 of 5) from the Great Lakes to the Mid-South. Once again, strong tornadoes, damaging winds, and very large hail will be possible with severe storms across the region.

Meanwhile, the Masters is later this week in Augusta, GA, and it looks like it could be a wet and stormy one - especially Friday into the weekend.

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Key survey shows California snowpack one of the largest on record

More from The Washington Post: "A key measurement of California's snow levels on Monday found near-record depth and moisture content in the Sierra Nevada, a calculation that comes amid a historic year for snow in the state and that further fuels fears that dangerous flooding may be ahead this spring. The onslaught of storms that hit the Golden State this winter created what will "probably, most likely be either the first- or second-biggest snowpack on record," said Sean de Guzman, manager of California's snow surveying. But he noted during an update Monday that more data is needed from other surveying sites to determine the final ranking in record books that date to 1950. April snowpack data is important because this month is typically when California's snowpack peaks in size, and because the information informs decisions from the state's Department of Water Resources on how to manage the water supply over the coming year."

Volcanoes on Venus … Wow!

More from EarthSky: "In March 2023, NASA announced the first definitive evidence for active volcanoes on Venus. And before the month ended, scientists at Washington University in St. Louis released another stunner: a new map of Venus' volcanoes, all 85,000 of them. About 99% of them are less than three miles (five km) in diameter. On Earth, volcanoes fall into three categories: active, dormant, or extinct. Venus is entirely covered with clouds. And we don't know yet where the 85,000 Venus volcanoes fall in these three categories. We do know that on Earth there are about 1,350 potentially active volcanoes, according to the U.S. Geological Survey."

Why Minnesota's push to electrify government vehicles is going slower than expected

More from Energy News Network: "A lack of inventory from auto manufacturers and a shortage of fast-charging options in rural areas are among the factors slowing progress toward Minnesota's state government fleet electrification goal. The Minnesota Department of Administration set a target in 2020 to make 20% of its vehicle fleet electric by 2027, part of an overall strategy to reduce state fleet fossil fuel consumption by 30% by 2027 from a 2017 baseline. The state would have had to replace more than 400 gas vehicles with electric models per year since 2021 to meet that target, but state officials contacted by the Energy News Network were unable to say exactly how many electric vehicles the state has purchased overall. The Department of Transportation, a leader in electric vehicles among agencies, has 14. The Department of Natural Resources has four."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day!

- D.J. Kayser