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Shower And Storms Around Thursday

We are going into a bit of a wet pattern the next few days as we watch a frontal boundary approach on Thursday, with an upper-level low moving slowly across the upper Midwest to end the week and begin the weekend. We will watch the potential of showers and storms on Thursday in the metro. Right now the best timing on the storms will be around the morning commute, then scattered around as we head late in the afternoon into the evening and overnight hours.

Forecast from 1 AM Thursday to 7 AM Friday.

You can see those scattered showers and storm around the state as we head through Thursday and Thursday night, with the pinwheeling nature of the rain with that low-pressure area evident by late in the forecast period shown.

Highs will be around average across the state into western Wisconsin on Thursday in the 70s and 80s.


Rain Continues Through First Half Of The Weekend

Rain chances will continue on Friday and Saturday across the region as that area of low pressure takes its dear-old time moving out of the region. Saturday looks more showery than thundery. The storm chance on Sunday is mainly from the Twin Cities south and east into southeastern Minnesota during the afternoon hours. Highs from Friday through the weekend will only be in the 70s.


Potential Rain Amounts Through Sunday

Most areas of the state through Monday morning will likely pick up at least a (much needed in some areas) half an inch of rain, with some seeing over an inch. The areas that see the least amount of rain will be in far southwestern Minnesota and up in the Arrowhead, where rainfall tallies could remain below half an inch.


Around To Below Average Highs

As mentioned, highs late this week into the weekend will only be in the 70s - around to several degrees below average. We do see a moderating trend heading into next week with highs closer to average.


Soaking Rains To End The Week
By D.J. Kayser, filling in for Paul Douglas

Can you handle the heat and humidity? It's been a hot summer so far across much of the central United States. We've observed the 16th warmest summer (since June 1st) so far on record at MSP with 17 90F+ degree days. Parts of the Southern Plains, however, are seeing at least a top 10 warmest summer to date on record.

According to First Street Foundation, heat and humidity are expected to get worse in the future. Their new model suggests about 8 million Americans currently live in an area that sees at least one 125F+ heat index value per year. In 30 years, that is expected to be 107 million people with an "Extreme Heat Belt" stretching from Texas and Louisiana northward to Iowa and southern Wisconsin.

No heat waves are looming on our maps anytime soon. In fact, highs will be around or below average over the next week in the metro. This will partly be due to an upper-level low that'll move in and linger through the first half of the weekend. A nice 0.50"-1.25" could fall, helping parched lawns.


D.J.'s Extended Twin Cities Forecast

THURSDAY: Scattered storms. Wake up 66. High 82. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.

FRIDAY: Cooler with showers and storms. Wake up 64. High 77. Chance of precipitation 90%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.

SATURDAY: Wetter half of the weekend. Wake up 63. High 75. Chance of precipitation 90%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Southeast MN PM rain. Wake up 62. High 78. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind NE 5-10 mph.

MONDAY: Sunnier and drier. Wake up 62. High 80. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NE 5-10 mph.

TUESDAY: A few clouds. Isolated PM shower? Wake up 63. High 81. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 5-10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Late night rain. Wake up 62. High 82. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.


Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
August 18th

*Length Of Day: 13 hours, 55 minutes, and 47 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 2 minutes and 49 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 13 Hours Of Daylight?: September 6 (12 hours, 59 minutes, 29 seconds)
*When Does The Sun Start Rising At/After 7 AM?: September 22nd (7:00 AM)
*When Does The Sun Start Setting At/Before 8 PM?: August 26th (8:00 PM)


This Day in Weather History
August 18th

1953: Four heifers near St. Martin were lucky; a tornado picked them up and set them back down again, unharmed.


National Weather Forecast

On Thursday we will be tracking several active areas of storms. A coastal storm in the Northeast brings heavy rain to parts of New England. A stalled frontal boundary in the Southeast/South Central region will bring occasional batches of storms. A slow-moving area of low pressure in the upper Midwest brings showers and storms. And we continue to watch monsoonal moisture in the Southwest leading to storms. Meanwhile, record highs will be possible in the Northwest, including in Seattle and Portland.

Several areas of heavy rain will be possible through the end of the week across the lower 48 - across the southern tier of states (especially in the Southwest), in the Northeast due to that coastal storm, and in the upper Midwest due to a slow-moving area of low pressure.

Particularly as we head into Friday we will be watching the potential of flooding rains across portions of Arizona and New Mexico, including the Phoenix and Tucson areas. In just the Friday-Friday night timeframe, rainfall totals of 1-2" will be possible.


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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser